How the Chicago Cubs stack up against the competition as much as how they perform will dictate the trajectory the team takes at the trade deadline. Right now it appears the St. Louis Cardinals are the rabbit in the Cubs’ wild card chase.
A Cardinal Concern: Cubs in Tight Race for the NL Wild Card
As it stands, the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and the St. Louis Cardinals would be the wild card teams in the National League. Nobody seriously suspects the Braves of faltering. So that leaves the Padres and Cardinals. While the Padres rank about even with the Cubs and Cards in both team pitching and fielding, they are outperforming both by far in team hitting.
The Padres lead the NL in hits (784), and batting average (.263), and rank third in RBI with 398. They also rank fourth in home runs (98), OBP (.326), slugging (.411), and OPS (.737). The Cubs and Cards rank in the middle to the bottom in the NL in each of these categories.
They’re only five games back in the wild card hunt, but the Cubs find themselves behind eight other teams. The New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, and Cincinnati Reds are all in contention. Of these, only the Braves, the Padres, the Mets, and the Reds have positive run differentials. Some, like the Reds, seem to be thinking sell while others, like the Pirates, are showing signs of making big-time trades.
There’s still some head-scratching around the league as to whether the Cubs will be able to justify being in buyer mode at the deadline. They have been stuck in neutral since backing up in the standings in early May.
How the Cards Stack Up Against the Cubs
A look at how the Cubs and Cardinals stack up against each other reveals a contest that is closer than the average Cubs fan might expect. The teams are virtually deadlocked in team ERA, opponent’s batting average, and WHIP. The most notable exception is the Cardinals flame-throwing closer Ryan Helsley, who has converted 30 of 31 saves so far this campaign.
🔥 HEL’S BELLS 🔥
Ryan Helsley becomes just the second Cardinal in franchise history to record 30 saves before the All-Star Break!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/sPcNNMhanM
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) June 30, 2024
The same may be said for team fielding, where the teams share nearly identical fielding percentages. And, while the Cubs lead in total putouts (2,247), the Cards lead in assists (750), arguably the more important of the two stats.
It’s in team batting where the most noticeable difference comes to light between these teams. But there, too, it’s not quite as bad as Cubs fans might think. The Cubs have more runs (347) than the Cards, although both teams labor near the bottom of the league in that statistic. The Cubs have more home runs (82) and runs batted in (324) than their friendly rivals to the south. But while the Cubs rank third in the NL in walks (305). they also rank third in strikeouts (760), and near the bottom of the league in average (.228).
The two teams are relatively close on paper, but the Cubs’ glaring late-inning bullpen and hitting deficiencies are evident.
Balancing One Competition, the Cubs Could Balance All
It’s not a straightforward comparison, but fixing these two areas might make the Cubs more competitive against the entire NL. Take the Mets and Reds, for example, the only teams in the Cubs’ way with positive run differentials. The Mets are outhitting the Cubs by a fairly wide margin. The Mets rank in the top five in homers (102), RBI (377), on-base percentage (.323), slugging (.416), and OPS (.739).
Meanwhile, the Reds are the better pitching club and the Cubs have a slight edge in fielding percentage (.984).
To Be or Not To Be (A Contender)
If the Cubs are to compete with the Cardinals and the rest of the NL for a wild card spot, they’ll need to go on a run in July. Last season, they went on a late July run that sent Hoyer to the trade grounds for help. That resulted in the team landing third baseman Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals. However, he elected free agency after the season. What the Cubs’ miserly President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer does next will be extremely telling.
If Not, Then Sell
As Evan Massey at Sports Illustrated points out, both Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ could make interesting options for teams in need of versatile outfield talent down the stretch. Happ, the eighth-year Cubs left fielder, hit his 136th home run against the Brewers on June 29. He now holds the franchise record for home runs by a switch hitter.
But trading bat for bat won’t fix the Cubs’ most important issues. Likewise, trading a bat for an elite pitcher is an even trade. It seems like a trade for either player indicates Hoyer doesn’t like the team’s chances this season.
Not that that’s necessarily a bad choice. The absence of an outfielder would make room for the team to promote Owen Caissie from Triple-A Iowa, where he’s been performing well this season. After a great season with the Cubs Double-A affiliate Tennessee Smokies last season, Caissie is slashing .283/.394/.453 with eight homers and 45 RBI. Caissie was ranked as the fourth-best hitting prospect in the minors this season by MLB.
The Trick Is To Be
The hardest thing for a franchise leader to predict is if, when, and for how long his or her team will succeed. For a guy with a conservative reputation as a GM, Hoyer has made some pretty big deals in the past. The acquisition of manager Craig Counsell is one such example. But overall, Hoyer will usually err on the side of caution.
The Cubs have struggled to keep their pitching staff healthy this season. But this leaves the most room for optimism as arms begin to heal. The likes of Julian Merryweather and Ethan Roberts back healthy again may just provide the bullpen some much-needed late-inning support. As more young live arms fill the rotation and bullpen, the Cubs may yet improve on their overall pitching performance in 2024.
#Cubs injury updates:
-Caleb Killian threw a 32 pitch bullpen yesterday
-Julian Merryweather threw a 26 pitch bullpen yesterday
-Yency Almonte threw live BP and has returned to Chicago for next steps— Taylor McGregor (@Taylor_McGregor) June 15, 2024
If Hoyer is thinking this way, then the Cubs will likely look to pick someone up for cash or other minor considerations. The Colorado Rockies catcher Elias Díaz has come up in the past as one option. Díaz has just been reinstated from the injured list and could be the kind of two-way talent the team needs to improve this year.
Only Time Will Tell Who Has Made the Best Moves in 2024
If the Cubs were to go on an extended win streak and then play .600 ball the remainder of the season, they might well find themselves in the wild card hunt down the stretch. A trade for a marquee closer and/or bat could spark the team. But the odds aren’t necessarily in their favor, especially when this far behind in the standings. The Cardinals and other teams in the race will be looking for deals as well. And with a postseason berth in the balance, the stakes are high.
Photo Credit: © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
