The San Diego Padres are fighting for a Wild Card position in a weak National League. As the trade deadline looms, the Padres need to address what their intentions will be before so. The Padres front office has been busy piecing together a more balanced roster to stay competitive, but despite a recent setback against the New York Mets, the Padres are holding second place in the NL West. They sit a half-game out of the third NL Wild Card spot, sandwiched between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. This recent skid proves that the team needs something, but it is hard to tell what that could be. What direction will the Padres choose. Are they buyers? Are they sellers? Can they buy and sell at the same time?
Should the Padres Buy or Sell at the Deadline?
The Padres have already made two big splashes in the trade market this season. First came Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox just before the Seoul Series. The second, they brought in two-time batting champion Luis Arráez from the Miami Marlins. These early moves have paid dividends, especially with second baseman Xander Bogaerts sidelined with a fractured shoulder. Arraez has provided infield flexibility for manager Mike Shildt, and the quick-swinging lefty has drawn fitting comparisons to Mr. Padre himself, Tony Gwynn.
Why the Padres Should Sell
Probably the most significant contributor to this rough patch has been underperforming pitching. Injuries have kept veterans Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove off the mound for most of the year. The injuries forced much of the load onto a bullpen stretched thin and young arms brought up from Triple-A El Paso. However, with Darvish slated for a rehab start at High-A Fort Wayne on Wednesday, his Padres return looms in the future. Musgrove, who has been dealing with elbow issues all year, may start throwing later this week, as per Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. This puts the timetable for the San Diego native sometime around late July, right around the trade deadline.
Yu Darvish will make a rehab start with High-A Fort Wayne on Wednesday, Mike Shildt said.
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) June 17, 2024
The bullpen is showing signs of overuse. This season, the unit was in the top 10 in the MLB for ERA before June 1, but it has slipped to the middle of the pack since then. The return of co-aces Darvish and Musgrove could relieve most of this stress, shoring up a rotation currently relying on Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur, who are struggling after coming up from El Paso. If Darvish and Musgrove can’t return to form, no trade the Padres can reasonably make would solve this issue.
However, the Padres aren’t lacking in the field. Depth at all positions provided by late veteran pickups like Donovan Solano and David Peralta and surprising surges from rookie Jackson Merrill and fan-favorite Jurickson Profar have kept this team afloat. Once you factor in Bogaerts’ potential return, the lineup has even more flexibility to give ailing star Manny Machado consistent rest days while he deals with the hip flexor injury.
But, There’s More
If the playoffs seem out of reach as the deadline approaches, the Padres have options to ensure a strong return next season. Closer Robert Suarez is 33 and having the best season of his career. However, “Bobby Fastballs”, as the name suggests, throws a lot of heaters. This questions the health and longevity of the Venezuelan who signed a 5-year, $46 million guaranteed deal in late 2022. He is owed $26 million over the next three years, which makes his price tag appetizing for some contenders needing bullpen help.
Infielder Jake Cronenworth has been in and out of trade rumors for the last two seasons, and now could be the time to move him. Cronenworth, 30, signed a 7-year, $80 million extension before the 2023 season. The lefty has struggled to find his swing since he placed second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020. With the abundance of infielders on the roster, the now-veteran could become a marquee piece in a trade that sheds some of his large contracts.
General manager AJ Preller is famous for being aggressive during trade deadlines. However, his stock of trade pieces is depleted. Aside from a few untouchables like Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries, the farm system lacks top-tier prospects. The question becomes, “Who can the Padres give up to get what they want?” There’s not much in this. Moving Suarez and Cronenworth could help restock the farm while relieving some payrolls.
Why the Padres Should Buy
The Preller-Era Padres don’t want to be seen as the team that constantly falls short of expectations. However, the window to break that narrative could close at any time. Ageing cornerstones like Machado, Darvish, and Musgrove pressure the team to succeed. One could argue that the Padres are in the best position right now, with fantastic depth on the field and only a couple of missing pieces to turn themselves into a well-rounded contender. Except for the division leaders, the National League is weak. Taking advantage of this could be vital to getting the Padres to October. From there, it’s a matter of getting hot at the right time, which the Padres did during their last postseason appearance that saw them lose in the NLCS to the Phillies in 2022.
The Padres have been linked to the White Sox in trade rumors. Left-handed starter Garrett Crochet and reliever Michael Kopech seem to be the likely target. Crochet would anchor a rotation spearheaded by his former teammate in Cease. Kopech would enter a bullpen needing another high-leverage pitcher and could settle down some struggling arms. A rotation featuring Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, Crochet, Michael King, and knuckleballer Matt Waldron would elevate the Padres pitching and take the pressure off the bullpen.
This trade deadline is a tricky one for the Padres and Preller. Franchise-altering decisions loom within the next month and a half. The Padres almost have the tools to win now, but a tight budget and lack of pieces may force Preller’s hand one way or another.
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