The date was April 1st, it was opening night of the 2021 season. The Seattle Mariners were at home against the San Fransisco Giants. The Giants had the lead for most of the game until the Mariners were able to score six runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to take the lead 7-6. In the top of the ninth the Giants evened it at 7-7 and the game eventually headed for extras after the Mariners weren’t able to score in the bottom of the 9th. In the top of the 10th Anthony Misiewicz was able to hold the Giants off thanks to a fantastic sliding catch made by Mitch Haniger.
One-Run Wins Have Ignited Mariner Chaos Magic
Then in the top of the 10th, the unthinkable happened. Jose Alverez, who was really good for the Giants in 2021 walking only 19 batters in 64 and 2/3 innings and having a 2.37 ERA that season. Came into the game to hold off the Mariners with a ghost runner on 2nd and proceeded to walk Taylor Trammell, then Dylan Moore and then handed Jake Fraley a free pass to walk it off for the Mariners. Anti-climactic win you say? Absolutely not. That was the moment ‘Chaos Ball’ was born in Seattle, a great moment in team history. The beautiful thing about this style of baseball is it can be done in many ways, there has been no better example than what took place on opening night in 2021. It wasn’t the prettiest walk-off we will ever see but, it was a walk off all the same.
A win Is A win
I’m not sure the first time I heard the phrase ‘you don’t get extra credit for winning pretty’ was. I know it was from one of my coaches a long while ago. That has stuck with me over the years. The Seattle Mariners have modeled that idea since this re-boot began to take shape in 2021. That year the team won 90 games and just missed the playoffs.
The interesting thing about the 2021 Mariners was that they were outscored by their opponents by 51 runs. How does a team win 90 games and have a -51 run differential? Well, several things have to go your way no doubt about it. More importantly there is an unwavering belief a team like that one has. The belief says we are never out of a game until the last out. They had 33 one-run wins and were 53-32 in games decided by two runs or less that season.
Embrace The Chaos
In 2022 the Mariners had that belief again but, they were more talented. That year the Mariners graduated core players Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raliegh and George Kirby to the big leagues and traded for Luis ‘The Rock’ Castillo. They again won 90 games but the run differential jumped to +63. Still, they had a league leading 34 wins in one-run contests.
First they busted the franchise playoff drought of twenty-two long seasons. Then on October 8th, 2022 in game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series. The Mariners were down 8-1 after 5 innings and most of the baseball world assumed there would be game 3. Unless, you had watched the Mariners for the past two seasons. In which case you had seen enough chaos ball to know, it ain’t over til’ its over! The Mariners came back to win that game 10-9 with the help of two four run innings.
#EmbraceTheChaos Many Mariners fans are still processing the excitement after the team’s comeback win against the Blue Jays Saturday, one of the greatest in postseason baseball history! The team heads to Houston Tuesday. #SeaUsRise #GoMs More here >> https://t.co/30SAq3Bvse pic.twitter.com/DwUEo7bXoZ
— KOMO News (@komonews) October 10, 2022
Chaos Ball Was Lost But Now It Is Found
Last Season the Mariners couldn’t quite find the recipe for winning close games and they ended up going 88-74 and again missing the playoffs by one win. They finished the season 25-26 in one-run games, uncharacteristic of this era of M’s baseball. They were so dependent on the long ball, that winning close games seemed inconceivable in certain games to their fans.
Don’t look now but the 2024 Seattle Mariners have put themselves in a position to do something they haven’t done since 2001 and that is win the AL West. Sure, it is only June and they absolutely do not hand out any hardware this early. With there toughest stretch of games this season in the rearview mirror, they just played twenty-eight games in twenty-nine days. The Seattle Mariners have to feel good about their chances to win the division. Of their remaining 102 games, thirty-one are against AL West opponents. If they are able to take care of business against their division rivals, they will be able to separate themselves from the pack. It doesn’t matter that their run differential is a +7 the lowest of any division leader in baseball. As the 2021 Mariners showed us, run differential doesn’t matter. You don’t get extra credit for winning pretty.
Hit For Show And Pitch For Dough
The 2024 Mariners are winning the one-run games again with a 12-4 record thus far. So how exactly have they done this, the mind tends to wonder. I’ve been fishing for some magical statistic for the Mariners success in one-run games over the years. I haven’t located one thing that sums it up. What I have found is that in each of the three seasons ‘Chaos Ball’ has been a thing, the Mariners have been among the league leaders in team bullpen statistics. This was also true in 2023, when the Mainers faltered in close games. I do believe that bullpen pitching is a key to the one-run win recipe. Finishing games strong gives you a better chance of success in close games. This season with Andres Munoz dominating the back end and the Mariners knack for bolstering bullpens, they should again be strong in that department.
Luck Or Strategy?
The Mariners staring rotation has been outstanding this year, the expectation is that each of them will go into the 6th inning. With the exception of maybe Bryan Woo who continues to ramp up from an injury that kept him out of spring training and early season games. That takes pressure off of the bullpen because most nights they’re not expected to get more than nine outs. The Mariners bullpen has pitched the fewest innings in MLB this year.
That is certainly not luck, that part is without a doubt a strategy which permeates throughout the organization. Early in this re-boot they focused on pitching and have been able to draft and develop some of the finest young starters in baseball in the last 5 years. That coupled with a constant focus on acquiring relievers and simplifying things for them. Showing them what they do really well and encouraging them to attack the zone with their best stuff. Has been a huge part of all success in close games.
Timely Hitting
The old baseball adage of timely hitting certainly has come into play many times over the years. The Mariners who are built around their pitcher friendly ballpark, haven’t had a lights out offense since they played in the Kingdome. When they are good at the plate, it has not been because the offense outshines their opponents. They have worked well in tandem with their pitching and have had a knack for the clutch hit. Look no further than the Captain J.P. Crawford. In 20 bases loaded at bats since 2023 Crawford has 13 hits, 3 grand slams, a triple and 34 RBI’s. He has a 1.350 slugging percentage, which is the highest for all MLB hitters with at least 15 bases loaded at bats over that stretch.
Pretty clutch for a guy who’s career slugging percentage is .376. To be fair its not just J.P. who comes through, sometimes its players like rookie Ryan Bliss, sometimes it’s Ty France or Mitch Garver. The Mariners seem to be able to really embody the term next man up when it comes to who will have the clutch at bat on a given night.
Mariner Chaos Magic
Seemingly every time I hear Manager Scott Servais in an interview, he says things like ‘we don’t give up’, “we have to keep grinding’ and ‘we kept battling tonight’. Makes sense to me that he talks about this with his players often as well. I suspect that all of the scrappy one-run wins have as much do with the skipper as any statistic I could possibly find to explain this phenomenon. I believe the pitching is absolutely why they are in position to win so many games. The Mariners do not get blown out often and when they do, it feels like a fluke at this point. I can logically connect the dots on that.
Baseball is a funny game, the same team that sweeps the Yankees can turn around and get swept by the White Sox. As a player, you can’t let any of the ups and downs effect you. You really have to focus on the present moment, what matters is not anything that happened before. What matters is the next pitch. Why is a team like the Mariners that doesn’t always score a ton of runs in general, able come through in big moments late in close games? I have to think the biggest factor is that they believe they will find a way to get it done. For the players who’ve been here a while, they’ve seen the magic happen late in games. Each time it happens that belief just increases. Teams that believe in themselves can be extremely dangerous down the stretch.
Main Photo Credits: John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports
