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Former No. 1 Draft Choice a Pleasant Surprise for Diamondbacks, Defying Analytics

When the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Kevin Newman in January, they couldn’t have foreseen how valuable the underrated shortstop would become. That January deal was a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Competing against other middle infielders in spring training, Newman didn’t seem to have a path to the majors with the defending National League champions. Newman thought so, too. He opted out of that deal on March 27.

However, a lot can happen in baseball in four days. Jordan Lawlar injured his thumb. Jace Peterson was underperforming. Blaze Alexander, the favorite to win the backup shortstop position, struggled defensively. Suddenly Newman and the Diamondbacks looked like a good match again. Newman inked another minor league deal with the Snakes.

Kevin Newman a Pleasant Surprise for Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks must feel like they’ve struck gold with Newman. On April 7, Geraldo Perdomo, a 24-year-old defensive wizard, suffered a torn meniscus in his knee. Arizona placed him on the injured list and recalled Newman from Triple-A Reno. Newman stepped in at shortstop on April 8 and has exceeded expectations. After Tuesday’s action, he’s hitting .256/.293/.393, with two home runs and 11 RBI in 39 games. Those numbers, which are fine for a backup shortstop, are due to a low 12.4 percent strikeout rate and an up-the-middle approach that sees 53.5 percent of his batted balls going to center field. He has six career walk-off hits, including one to beat his former team, the Cincinnati Reds, 6-5 on May 13.

Observers give high marks to Newman’s defense. Statistically, he’s worth zero Fielding Runs Above Average and one Defensive Run Saved. He’s committed just two errors and participated in 19 double plays. If these numbers strike the reader as rather pedestrian, that’s nothing new. Newman has always been an underrated shortstop. He doesn’t appear on the nightly sports highlights very often or blow up Statcast. We’ll get back to his defense in a short while.

Hello, Newman

Newman was the No. 1 draft pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft out of the University of Arizona. The Pirates’ No. 2 pick that year was another shortstop, Kevin Kramer. The Pirates called Kramer and Newman up late in 2018. Had Kramer stuck at second base as Newman’s double play partner, the Seinfeld references from announcers would have been endless.

In any event, Newman’s rookie year was 2019, when he hit .308. Another Pirates rookie, Bryan Reynolds, hit .314. It was the first time a team had two rookies hit over .300 since Jim Rice and Fred Lynn did it for the Boston Red Sox in 1975. Maybe you’ve heard of them.

A New Regime Takes Over

The 2020 season was a lost year for many. It’s hard to put any stock in the stats produced during that season. Some were ready for the hastily organized pandemic-shortened season. Some weren’t. Newman hit just .224 in 2020. Challenged by his new manager Derek Shelton to improve his defense in 2021, Newman had one of the best defensive seasons in baseball history. He committed only three errors in 2021, with seven Defensive Runs Above Average and seven Fielding Runs Saved. That tied Cal Ripken Jr. and Omar Vizquel, the record holders for the fewest errors in a season by a shortstop. They’re considered the record holders because they played in over 150 games. Newman is not listed among them because he played in just 132 games.

Unfortunately, Newman hit just .226 in 2021 and was issued another challenge by Shelton for 2022, to improve his hitting. Newman responded by leading the Pirates with a .274 average in 2022.

For his efforts, he was rewarded with a trade to the Reds. Pirates prospect Oneil Cruz was ready for a promotion to the big time. Newman’s days in Pittsburgh were numbered. But when Cruz was lost for the season after playing only nine games in 2023, Newman would have been preferable to the rotating audition that took place at shortstop for the Pirates.

Underrated Shortstop Newman Defies Analytics

Somehow, Newman was never a favorite of Pirates fans, or at least the ones who call talk shows or participate in the social media cesspool. They thought a No. 1 draft choice should be a better player. To harp on that for his entire career is sheer nonsense. He had no control over his draft position, nor could he change it.

Do Newman’s six career walk-off hits suggest a clutch hitter? Analytics have discounted the notion of the clutch hitter. The theory is that a hitter like Newman, who is a career .259 hitter, can’t turn himself into Ted Williams in clutch situations. The thinking is that those clutch situations are a small sample size. If all of Newman’s career at-bats fell in clutch situations, he’d still hit .259. Newman’s WPA (-.03 for 2024, -3.10 for his career) suggests the opposite of a clutch hitter. Yet, it’s clear that late-inning situations with the game on the line don’t bother him. Some guys can maintain that slow heartbeat in these situations. Newman is one of them. It’s a quality that no statistic can measure.

There’s value in what Newman brings to the table as a shortstop, too. He’s reminiscent of some Pirates shortstops of the past. There was Tim Foli of the 1979 World Series champion Pirates. There were Clint Barmes and Jordy Mercer of the 2013-15 Wild Card Pirates. What these shortstops did reliably was avoid making errors on the easy plays. One can’t quantify the psychological effect of having an infielder who won’t boot an easy grounder late in a tight game. Barmes and Mercer especially drew high praise from former Pirates for that reason. The underrated Newman is that kind of shortstop, too.

The Last Word

Perdomo is said to be close to a return to the Diamondbacks. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo has stated that when Perdomo returns, he will reclaim his starting shortstop position. However, it won’t mean the end for Newman. Lovullo wants Newman on the roster as a backup infielder. Newman has come full circle, playing major league baseball in the desert where he played his college baseball. Maybe he’s finally found a baseball home.

 

Photo Credit: © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

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