When Bailey Falter left spring training with a spot in the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation, many baseball observers were surprised. Like, 100 percent of them. The left-hander finished the exhibition season with a 0-2 record and a 7.88 ERA. In 16 innings, he gave up 14 earned runs and six home runs and had a WHIP of 1.563. The only positive of his spring training performance was that no children or animals were harmed while he was on the mound.
Much-Maligned Pirates Pitcher Is Exceeding Expectations
However, after four starts in the regular season, Falter is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and an outstanding .950 WHIP. Opposing hitters are hitting just .189/.241/.351 against him. The exit velocity and percentages of hard-hit balls and line drives are below the major league average. Take away the first inning from his first start, when he gave up five runs, and the numbers are even better. Since that disastrous inning, the 26-year-old has a 1.89 ERA and .737 WHIP. In his second start, against the Baltimore Orioles, he pitched six shutout innings and yielded just one hit. The hit was a catchable fly ball that dropped between two fielders. What’s behind this sudden transformation?
A Trade Of Problems
It was a mild surprise when the Pirates traded infielder Rodolfo Castro to the Philadelphia Phillies for Falter at the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, it looked like a convenience trade, each team ridding itself of a problem. In 2021, Castro looked to be a promising prospect whose first five major league hits were home runs. However, the Pirates brain trust soon wearied of his immaturity. In 2022, he was dispatched to the minors after an incident of non-hustle that manager Derek Shelton termed “unacceptable.” On his next stint with the Pirates, Castro slid into third base as his cell phone popped out of his pocket. By the 2023 deadline, the Pirates had seen enough. They’d accumulated some organizational depth with middle infielders. Castro had fallen so far down the depth of his pocket that one needed a compass to find him.
For Falter and the Phillies, it was a different story. Falter wasn’t too shabby for the Phillies in 2022, pitching in 20 games and going 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA. However, in 2023, he was ineffective. His record was 0-7 with a 5.13 ERA. He had been passed up on the depth chart by a few other pitchers and was deemed expendable. Pirates general manager Ben Cherington had long coveted Falter for his starting rotation. After all, PNC Park’s dimensions favor left-handed pitchers. Falter had always shown good control, even in rough times. For his career, he’s walked just two batters per nine innings.
The deal fell into place because the Phillies wanted a right-handed hitting infielder. Castro is a switch-hitter who hits far better from the right side. It’s been suggested that he abandon switch-hitting altogether. In any event, Castro underachieved for the Phillies in 2023 and didn’t make the big club for Opening Day 2024.
So What’s Gotten Into Falter?
As a Pirate in 2023, Falter struggled. He was 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA. His starts didn’t go well. But on the three occasions when he relieved an “opener,” his ERA was 1.35. It appeared that long relief would be his niche. All the more reason why it was a surprise when Falter was chosen for a spot in the Pirates’ 2024 starting rotation.
What’s different this season? Falter has increased his four-seam fastball usage and is pitching to contact more. Falter has also introduced a splitter and abandoned his changeup, but the four-seamer usage is the most significant change. The table below shows the changes in the four-seamer usage from previous years and the effect this new pitching pattern has had on all batted balls against Falter.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Four-seamer usage | 34.8% | 45.3% | 43.9% | 52.9% |
| Opponents avg. against four-seamer | .200 | .222 | .307 | .095 |
| Strikes put into play | 26.7% | 28.7% | 30.8% | 34.2% |
| Strikeout ratio | 24.5% | 21.2% | 17.3% | 12.7% |
| Exit velocity | 88.9 | 89.4 | 89.0 | 85.9 |
| Hard-hit percentage | 37.1% | 38.8% | 39.6% | 32.8% |
| Line drive percentage | 25.8% | 25.0% | 26.6% | 18.8% |
Although his strikeout ratio is down significantly, with a corresponding increase in strikes put in play, it’s clear that the contact being produced is weak. The exit velocity and hard-hit and line-drive percentages are at career lows and below the major league average.
The Last Word
None of this suggests that Falter is a candidate for the Cy Young Award. It’s early in the season. The opponents’ batting averages against the four-seamer and overall are not sustainable. Neither is his Clayton Kershaw-like .950 WHIP. There will be a regression to the mean. However, all indications are that the Pirates and Falter have unlocked the formula to make him moderately successful in the starting rotation. Falter will continue executing and controlling the key. Somebody in the rotation will have to step aside at one point for the inevitable promotion of Paul Skenes. So far, Falter is making that decision more challenging.
Main Photo Credits: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
