The Cincinnati Reds are six games into the 2024 season and hold a winning record of 4-2. Manager David Bell has been pretty consistent with his daily lineups through those six games. In years past, it wouldn’t be uncommon to see a half dozen lineups run out every other game. This year has started much differently, with Jonathan India at the top.
It seems in the small sample size we have in ’24, the lineups vs righties and lefties have stayed consistent. It’s so much that bench player Bubba Thompson has yet to record a plate appearance in the young year. However, that shouldn’t be much of a concern. Thompson has been utilized when needed as a pinch runner, recording three stolen bases already and a defensive replacement in the outfield late in games.
The one piece of the lineup that needed immediate attention was the leadoff spot. With TJ Friedl getting hurt in spring training and rumored to not be back until sometime in May, the Reds were left without their top-of-the-order guy. On top of that news, Matt McLain’s injury made a bigger need for playing time. Jonathan India, the man rumored to be a trade piece this winter, has stepped up.
Why Jonathan India Should Stay in the Leadoff Spot
There’s not much data to go off of six games into the season. There is an eye test, however. Jonathan India has looked locked in at the plate so far in 2024. 28 plate appearances is all we have to go off of this year, but let’s take a look. India’s batting average isn’t eye-opening at .227. However, his expected numbers look quite different. Per Fangraphs, Jonathan India has a .418 xBA. Let’s take a deeper look into why.
Ball, foul, ball, ball, foul, foul, foul, foul, foul, double. @JonathanIndia's 10-pitch AB that started it all. pic.twitter.com/lpoPbPOnNu
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) March 31, 2024
If you’ve watched the Reds play this past week, you may have noticed India’s contact has seemed to be solid. More line-drive outs mean that balls hit a player directly. That’s backed up by his hard-hit and line-drive percentages, with both sitting at 44.4%. The MLB average for those two stats is 35.7% and 22.6%, respectively. Jonathan India has hit well above the league average in those two categories. Mix those two statistics with his low batting average, and you get a below-average BABIP of .278; simply put, he is unlucky.
Past History Shows The Right Decision
Jonathan India is in his fourth major league season. Over those four years, he has hit leadoff, and he has also hit outside the leadoff spot. In 1083 plate appearances, India has posted a .265/.363/.428 slash line while in the leadoff spot. At the same time, 114 wRC+ was put up per Fangraphs. On the other side of the argument, hitting anywhere from second to ninth in the lineup, Jonathan India has 536 plate appearances. Right around half the appearances in the leadoff spot, but still a respectable number. During that time, .234/.326/.398 slash line, good for a 94 wRC+, according to Fangraphs.
India, by no means, is the world’s best leadoff hitter. The bigger question will be what happens to his spot in the order when center fielder TJ Friedl comes back. But that’s a worry for a different day. Until that time comes, India has looked the part in that spot. If he is the team leader many have labeled him to be, he can find a way to get the job done by hitting first. The numbers are there to prove he can do it. It’s only a matter of time before those hard-hit balls consistently fall for base knocks.
Main Photo Credits: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
