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San Diego Padres Top Prospect Earns Spot in Opening Day Lineup

The San Diego Padres have a roster of what seems like a thousand shortstops playing out of position. Well, perhaps unsurprisingly, the team will fill its center field vacancy with a top shortstop prospect. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres are expected to name Jackson Merrill as the starting center field on Opening Day.

The risky yet aggressive move stems from San Diego losing outfield depth this winter, mainly in the trade that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees. A lack of spending money available for the Padres this winter made bringing in outfield upgrades a challenge. So, it seems as if the team will flex creativity and fill a premier position with an intriguing in-house option.

Padres to Name Jackson Merrill Opening Day Center Fielder

San Diego drafted Merrill in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft. Since then, Merrill has continued playing shortstop while ranking among the game’s top prospects. Merrill, 21 in April, currently ranks as the 12th-best prospect in the game, according to MLB Pipeline. Evaluators across the league have always been enamored by his talent, and the Padres have frequently refused to include him in trades.

Many expect Merrill to develop into a 30-home-run bat in the middle of a team’s lineup. He displays a great ability to make contact thanks to a lefty swing that evaluators drool over. He compliments his power with an all-fields approach and great swing decisions.

While players with these traits tend to just hit singles or doubles, many believe Merrill will grow into his power as he ages. A decrease in his ground ball rates from 2022 to 2023 indicates that he elevated the ball more, which represents an encouraging sign regarding his realizing his power potential.

Merrill should grow and become stronger over the next couple of years. If he continues swinging at pitches he can drive while continuing to hit line drives, he could earn a spot as one of the best bats in the show. Plus, having this bat at an elite position and on a cheap deal would represent great value for the Padres.

The Risks of Merrill As The Starting Center Fielder

The Offensive Risk

Merrill earned the Opening Day center fielder job due to a team need and his great spring. In 13 games, he collected 40 plate appearances and hit .351/.400/.595 with two homers and three doubles. Additionally, the Padres don’t necessarily have an option with anywhere close to Merrill’s offensive upside.

The fact that Merrill might represent the team’s best option at such an important position is notable. The youngster never played center before this year’s Spring Training. Plus, he only has 46 games of experience at Double-A and zero at Triple-A. His offensive production last season split between Single-A and Double-A didn’t scream major league ready.

In 114 games, he hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers. Those are good numbers that indicate potential, especially from a kid younger than the average Double-A player. However, they are not outwardly enough to indicate that he’s ready to skip Triple-A and make an impact in the majors right now.

The Padres possess a real issue if Merrill struggles offensively. First, the team runs the risk of hurting his development if pitchers continuously overmatch him. Many players miss out on crucial development in the minors and fail to overcome struggles after being rushed to the majors.

Stunting the development of a 20-year-old with great potential likely represents the last thing San Diego wants to do. However, it’s a real outcome that they are risking by naming Merrill as the Opening Day starter.

The Defensive Risk

Another reason Merrill earned the center field job is that he impressed the organization with his defense during games and drills. That said, one solid spring does not guarantee big-league success offensively or defensively.

Centerfield doesn’t necessarily represent Merrill’s permanent future home. That said, the Padres need him to play good center field due to a lack of depth at the position.

If Merrill struggles, the Padres could always send him to Triple-A and project him as a shortstop in 2025. Ha-Seong Kim is expected to depart either via trade at this year’s deadline or via free agency. Plus, it’s doubtful that the Padres would move Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop after one season at second base, then move the younger, more athletic Merrill to second.

While this projection bodes well for the future Padres, it hurts the 2024 Padres immensely. San Diego put too many eggs in Merrill’s basket this winter without securing a real backup option.

Someone like Michael A. Taylor represented a fit before he signed elsewhere last week. While Tommy Pham represents the best outfielder available by a wide margin, he likely is not a reliable center field option at this point of his career.

Conclusion

The Padres have a few mid-potential players that could provide serviceable defense in center. None contain the offensive upside as Merrill, but the Padres have enough offensive stars that should produce. Getting away with just defense in center should be doable for this star-studded lineup.

But if the team is okay with that mindset, Merrill should start the year at Triple-A. He could get valuable time to continue developing while being one phone call away from the majors if he gets off to a hot start. Instead, the team will rush him to the majors due to A.J. Preller’s poor roster construction.

The Padres naming Merrill as the Opening Day center fielder will excite fans, but could jeopardize his development. The Padres need him to be a star as the current stars age and decline (on expensive contracts).

Unfortunately, if this move harms the future star’s career, the fault should predominately fall on Preller for years of roster mismanagement.

Main Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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