We’ve reached the point where the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day lineup and roster are beginning to come into focus. Here are some totally unscientific, yet cogent predictions about what they might look like.
Of course, due to manager Derek Shelton’s proclivity to change lineups on an almost daily basis based on analytics, predicting the Pirates’ starting lineup for Opening Day, or any day, can be fruitless. In 2022, for example, his Opening Day second baseman was Hoy Park. Park didn’t start there again until game No. 65 on June 19. At times, Shelton’s head-scratching batting orders have yielded fruit, as if he knew something nobody else knew.
On June 18, 2022, Shelton batted Diego Castillo in the cleanup spot against the San Francisco Giants. Castillo was hitting .195/.238/.308 at the time. On that day, he hit a two-out, three-run homer in the third inning. On April 10, 2023, Shelton inserted left-handed swinging Ji Man Choi in the fifth spot against Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez. Choi had started the season 1-for-19. Then in his eighth year, he had just four career home runs against left-handed pitchers. Valdez, then in his sixth year, had given up just five home runs to left-handed batters in his career. Yet, Choi took Valdez deep that day.
Predicted Pirates Opening Day Lineup
Thus, anybody who tries to project what the Pirates’ lineup will look like on Opening Day has less chance of looking like a savant than he has of looking like an idiot. Fortunately, this writer doesn’t get embarrassed easily. The opposing Miami Marlins will be starting a left-handed pitcher, Jesús Luzardo. Here is one man’s projected Opening Day batting order and starting pitcher:
Oneil Cruz, SS
Bryan Reynolds, LF
Andrew McCutchen, DH
Henry Davis, C
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
Jared Triolo, 1B
Jack Suwinski, CF
Connor Joe, RF
Liover Peguero, 2B
Mitch Keller, P
Keller, the Pirates’ $77-million man, is the easy part. Shelton has already named him as the Opening Day starter.
The New 3-4-5
Last year, before Cruz got injured, he was in the leadoff spot in the batting order. Reynolds was consistently in the second slot all season long. The analytics gurus say that the 1-2-4 spots in the order are the new 3-4-5. The No. 2 batter as the contact hitter who moves runners along and makes the so-called productive outs has gone the way of the eight-track tape. The No. 2 batter has become the place for the team’s most complete hitter. We’ve seen Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt in that spot. Similarly, Reynolds will be there once again, too.
Bryan Reynolds is mic’d up.
We repeat… BRYAN REYNOLDS is mic’d up. pic.twitter.com/fThKlFt4GD
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 10, 2024
The cleanup spot, as well as the regular catcher designation, should go to Davis. When Yasmani Grandal was signed, it was thought he would be the regular behind the dish. Davis would be sent to the minors to develop his catching skills. After all, Grandal was signed for $2.5 million. That’s starter money, at least by the Bucs’ standards. But Shelton and general manager Ben Cherington should be changing their minds. In spring training, Davis is hitting .292/.333/.792 with four homers in nine games as of the close of Wednesday’s action. He’s looked good behind the plate, too, in all aspects – framing, blocking pitches, and throwing. If Davis is sent to the minors, there will be so many Pirates fans descending upon PNC Park with lit torches, that one would think a remake of Frankenstein was being filmed in Pittsburgh.
That makes Grandal an expensive backup. It also means there’s no room for Keller’s personal catcher, Jason Delay. However, if Davis keeps hitting bombs, Keller will get over losing Delay.
Resolving Second Base
There were four contenders for the second base position going into spring training. It has since turned into a dead-even competition between Triolo and Peguero. Stat-wise, the two have been virtually identical in the spring. Both are hitting .333 as of Wednesday. Triolo’s .419 OBP is just .002 better than Peguero’s. Peguero has the edge in slugging percentage, .524 to Triolo’s .481. Left out are Nick Gonzales and Ji Hwan Bae. Gonzalez has been used at shortstop, second base, and designated hitter, as if he were auditioning for a utility role. Bae has been out with a hip injury and hasn’t played at all recently. Once he recovers, it’s difficult to imagine him on the major league team barring an injury to another player.
So, who’s on second in the Pirates’ Opening Day lineup? With the Marlins so top-heavy in left-handed starting pitchers, the guess here is that Shelton will kick the can down the road for a while. Joe was slated to be the right-handed half of a first-base platoon. The versatile Triolo has played first base and can be used there. Peguero would play second base with Joe in right field, where nobody has stood out and seized the job.
Another Decision Postponed?
All-Star closer David Bednar is currently out with lat (latissimus dorsi for the Latin scholars among our readers) tightness. Bednar is trying to get ready for Opening Day. With the Pirates’ recent history of proceeding cautiously with players on the injured list, particularly pitchers, the guess here is that we don’t see Bednar on a major-league mound until May. (The typical pattern: He’ll be back in 10 days. 10 days later, he’s just starting to do some running and stretching. 15 days later, he just picked up a baseball. 10 days later, he’s just beginning to throw off flat ground.) Aroldis Chapman will likely assume the closer’s duties in Bednar’s place.
David Bednar and Mitch Keller playing some long toss. Mitch almost took me out. Would’ve been even more of a fan favorite. pic.twitter.com/7w1jPF9LEP
— Jason Mackey (@JMackeyPG) February 13, 2024
With three off days through April 18 on the regular season schedule, Shelton should be able to start the year with 12 pitchers. This allows him to postpone another decision, that being the crowded outfield situation. Reynolds and Suwinksi are assured spots. Most likely, Edward Olivares is too, given that Cherington traded for him, but one never knows. It’s hard to dismiss Joshua Palacios based on last year’s pinch-hitting prowess and his catchy enthusiasm.
Dilemmas
But the Pirates still need a good defensive center fielder on the bench. The 12-man staff will allow one of Gilberto Celestino or Billy McKinney to make the Pirates roster and fill that role. Celestino seems more probable based on the fact that he’s a right-handed hitter, while Suwinksi bats left-handed. Eventually, the Pirates will want a 13-man pitching staff. At that point, Shelton will have to choose between a pinch hitter and a center fielder.
Complicating matters on the pitching side is Roansy Contreras and Bailey Falter each being out of minor league options. They’ll be kept on the major league squad. Contreras still has a bright future ahead. Falter was long coveted by Cherington, and besides, we all know the old baseball axiom about left-handers developing late. However, neither has earned a starting berth. Long relief will be a good role for each to work out his issues.
Predicted Pirates’ Opening Day Roster
Starting pitchers: Keller, Martìn Pèrez, Marco Gonzales, Jared Jones, and Luis Ortiz.
Bullpen: Chapman, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Ryan Borucki, Contreras, Falter, and Chase Anderson.
Catchers: Davis and Grandal.
Infielders: Rowdy Tellez, Joe, Peguero, Triolo, Cruz, and Hayes.
Designated Hitter: McCutchen.
Outfielders: Reynolds, Suwinksi, Olivares, Palacios, and Celestino.
It’s been a different kind of spring for the Pirates. What we do know is, like recent springs, there is much competition for jobs. Unlike recent springs, it’s because talent is abundant, not lacking. Watching the decisions that will go into determining the Pirates’ Opening Day lineup and 26-man roster will be interesting.
Photo Credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
