The Philadelphia Phillies’ FanGraphs projections for the 2024 season give some insight into how the team may perform this season. Specifically of interest are the FanGraphs ZiPS DC projections. These projections take into account the likely depth chart for the team. The standard FanGraphs ZiPS projections do not take into account the distribution of playing time.
Both position player and pitcher projections will be evaluated, with the most notable individual player projections in each area being looked at. However, the projections for every individual player will not be specifically looked at. It is not guaranteed that these projections for the season will hold up. With that being said, these projections give a good idea of what may happen if things go to plan.
Current NL win projections, via @fangraphs
98.1 – Braves
94.2 – Dodgers
85.4 – Phillies
84.1 – Cardinals
83.9 – D-backs
82.0 – Cubs
81.9 – #SFGiants
81.4 – Padres
80.9 – Brewers
80.9 – Marlins
80.4 – Mets
79.5 – Reds
77.8 – Pirates
64.6 – Nationals
63.2 – Rockies— Ben Kaspick (@BenKaspick) March 8, 2024
Phillies FanGraphs Projections for 2024
Trea Turner
FanGraphs projects Trea Turner to lead Phillies position players with a 5.2 WAR this season. They expect him to have a .290/.342/.479 line with 25 home runs and 88 RBI. It is also projected that Turner will have 26 stolen bases this season. Turner is expected to have a .351 wOBA along with a 120 wRC+ this season, along with 102 runs scored.
Bryce Harper
It is projected that Bryce Harper will rank second among Phillies position players with a 4.3 WAR this season. FanGraphs projects that Harper will have a .281/.388/.527 line with 30 home runs and 92 RBI. In addition, it is projected that he will have 13 stolen bases this season and score 92 runs. Harper is projected to have a .384 wOBA along with a 142 wRC+ this season.
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto is projected to have a 3.1 WAR this season by FanGraphs, which would rank third among Phillies position players. It is expected that Realmuto will have a .254/.320/.440 line with 19 home runs and 68 RBI. Furthermore, he is projected to have 13 stolen bases this season. They also project that Realmuto will have a .326 wOBA and a 103 wRC+ this season. The veteran catcher is projected to score 65 runs this season.
Johan Rojas
Many anticipate that Johan Rojas will indeed be the Phillies starting center fielder on Opening Day. FanGraphs projects that Rojas will have a 0.6 WAR this season. They also project Rojas will have a .241/.285/.347 line with four home runs and 37 RBI, along with 20 steals. He is projected to have a .277 wOBA along with a 70 wRC+ this season. It is also projected that Rojas will score 46 runs in 2024.
Aaron Nola
FanGraphs expects Aaron Nola to lead Phillies pitchers with a 5.3 WAR this season. It is projected that Nola will have a 13-9 record with a 3.84 ERA and 203 strikeouts. Moreover, Nola is projected to have a 3.31 FIP in 2024. Nola is projected to have a 1.11 WHIP and a .299 BABIP this season as well. The Phillies being able to re-sign Nola during the offseason is going to pay off if these projections hold up.
Zack Wheeler
Recently given a contract extension by the Phillies, Zack Wheeler is projected to have a 5.1 WAR this season by FanGraphs. That would rank second among Phillies pitchers. FanGraphs expects Wheeler to have a 12-8 record this season with a 3.61 ERA and 192 strikeouts. Additionally, it is anticipated that he will have a 3.42 FIP. Wheeler is expected to have a 1.18 WHIP and a .296 BABIP this season.
Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker is projected by FanGraphs to have a 2.0 WAR this season. They project that Walker will have a 9-11 record with a 4.67 ERA and 132 strikeouts. Furthermore, Walker is expected to have a 4.66 FIP. It is also projected that Walker will have a 1.37 WHIP and a .292 BABIP. After missing some time due to injury, Walker will make his first spring training appearance next week.
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