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What Will the Starting Rotation Look Like for the Chicago Cubs?

With several free agents still not signed, how will the Chicago Cubs starting rotation look on Opening Day?

Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned.  Young arms in Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad are looking to make their mark.  There is still plenty of uncertainty as we are about two weeks away from the beginning of spring training.  However, the starting rotation for the Chicago Cubs is starting to take form.

Obviously, if the Cubs can sign one of the remaining top-end free agents, the rotation will look different.  Pairing someone like Snell or Montgomery with Justin Steele would be a formidable 1-2 punch.  However, the likelihood of either of these starters being at the top of their wish list is less likely than trying to re-sign Cody Bellinger. Would they have money left over?  It is more likely they will go after a top-of-the-rotation arm at the trade deadline if they are in the hunt for the playoffs.

Therefore, it is looking more likely that the Cubs will start the year just as they ended it.  They do have a stockpile of great young arms, including Wicks and Assad.  Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian may be valuable members of the starting rotation, but it may not be in 2024.  Given their trade market activity, Brown and Kilian could be key parts of a deal.  The best guess is Wrigley’s best will feature some youth when they open the season against the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers.

Chicago Cubs Projected Starting Rotation

The Starting Five

Given all of these factors, here is my best guess on what the starting rotation will look like in late March:

  1. Justin Steele
  2. Jameson Taillon
  3. Shota Imanaga
  4. Jordan Wicks
  5. Javier Assad

Justin Steele

Justin Steele is still a top-of-the-line starter who could make another run at the Cy Young Award this season. Steele finished fifth in Cy Young voting last season after putting up the best season of his career. The southpaw led the Cubs in wins, going 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. Steele threw a career-high 173 1/3 innings, striking out a career-best 176 and walking 36. He also earned his first All-Star Game bid. He enters this season as Chicago’s projected Opening Day starter.

Jameson Taillon

Jameson Taillon has to be more consistent for the Cubs to be successful.  Last season was a classic Jekyll and Hyde season for Taillon.  He began the year going 2-6 for the first three months, never working more than six innings in any start.  When the calendar turned to July, Taillon proved he could be a top-three starter.  Taillon went 6-4 the rest of the way, allowing more than three earned runs only four times in 16 starts.  If he can find this rhythm for the full 2024 season, Taillon will be an innings eater for the Cubs.

Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga has been described as a two-pitch lefty who has great control.  The 30-year-old was signed in the offseason to be a second or third starter depending on if the Cubs sign anyone else for the rotation.  Imanaga was the winning pitcher for Japan against the United States during last spring’s World Baseball Classic.  During his time in the NPB (Japanese league), he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.118 WHIP.  These numbers indicate he should be able to handle the step up in competition this season.

Jordan Wicks

In last year’s seven September starts, Jordan Wicks showed he was ready for the majors.  Although he never made it past the seventh inning in any of his starts, Wicks only gave up more than three runs only once.  He kept the offense in all games and was a spark for a team that needed innings due to a depleted rotation with injuries to other starters.  Although not the top prospect in their system, Wicks has shown the Cubs he is worth another look this spring.

Javier Assad

Javier Assad was another young arm who impressed in his limited action last season.  The Mexican-born righty vacillated between the rotation and the bullpen but proved valuable in both roles.  As a starter, he lasted more than six innings just three times in ten starts.  To maintain his place in the rotation, this will have to improve.  But the outlook is good for this 26-year-old, as he has proven that he has the makeup and pitch repertoire to be a part of a winning team.  His 3.05 ERA over all of 2023 shows he can get outs and keep his opponents off of the scoreboard.

Will They Hold Up?

As mentioned above, the likelihood of these five being the same come September is low.  A strong starter is certainly on the wish list, but Jed Hoyer and company may wait to see how the team performs during the season before trading away prospects.  The season’s first month is brutal, with half of the Cubs’ first ten series against playoff teams from last year.  Fans should not get discouraged if the team gets off to a slow start.  For a successful season, Chicago should look to improve the starting staff if they expect to make a deep October run.

 

Photo Credit: “Wrigley Field?” by PandamicPhoto.com is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

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