Despite being seen as the favorites in the industry for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in the end, the New York Yankees lost out to the LA Dodgers in the sweepstakes. Yamamoto chose to take the 12-year offer north of $300 million to play beside his compatriot Shohei Ohtani. The key for the rest of the offseason is how the Yankees pivot after Yamamoto’s snub.
This deal forever changes the landscape of pitcher contracts, as it will be a marker for future deals. It also affects the landscape of the remaining pitching market, shooting up the prices further on remaining arms and increasing the need to spend judiciously as demand soars.
How Might the Yankees Pivot After Yamamoto’s Snub?
There were always rumors that Yamamoto wanted to play beside a Japanese teammate. Who better than arguably the best player in the game, and hero of Japanese baseball, Shohei Ohtani? Fresh off signing a mind-blowing $700 million deal in free agency to leave the Angels, Ohtani convinced the ace to follow him to LA.
As badly as the Yankees needed pitching, their biggest need this offseason was a lefty power bat and left-fielder. They accomplished this with the huge trade for possible future Hall of Famer Juan Soto. Soto, in a contract year, will benefit massively from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. He’ll also benefit from having fellow generational star Aaron Judge beside him. Expect a monstrous year from Soto protecting Judge in the lineup, with plenty of juicy pitches to hit in the Bronx for both stars.
Furthermore, the Yanks acquired Alex Verdugo in an underrated trade with the Red Sox. Verdugo should benefit from the change of scenery, and his lefty bat and energy should be a plus. Even in a down year, Verdugo’s numbers would have only been behind Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge for the best on the team.
However, the Yankees admittedly need to pivot to plan B in the pitching market. They need to spend judiciously and not panic buy. Their offseason is still on course for success despite Yamamoto’s snub.
Yanks Lose Out on Yama
Few teams pursued Yamamoto longer than the Yankees did. New York sent a representative to every one of his starts last year. GM Brian Cashman himself was at his no-hitter. He was seen as front and center to the Yankees’ offseason plans. They even set aside the number 18 jersey for him–the ace jersey for Japanese pitchers.
There was confidence that the extra leg work paid off. Throughout the industry, the Yankees were seen as the favorites for landing him, not least because of their success with previous Japanese imports such as Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka.
Also, the Yankees rarely get outbid or lose out on a free agent they desire. The fact that not only the Dodgers, but the Mets offered more than the Yankees, north of their $300 million, shows how the landscape of baseball has changed.
In terms of optics, it’s a bitter blow for the Yankees. However, their reported offer of 10 years and $300 million is a gigantic offer for an unproven commodity. It’s impossible to fault the front office here. They put their best foot forward, sold the prestige, and worked tirelessly behind the scenes to land him. Clearly, Yamamoto just didn’t want to be a Yankee or was more tempted to become a Dodger. Insider Jon Heyman also pointed out the Yankees didn’t want to pay him more than their Cy Young-winning ace Gerrit Cole, which is fair.
Ohtani Deferral Closed the Deal
In hindsight, now that the sweepstakes are over, it was obvious that Shohei Ohtani’s massive deferral of his salary was designed to bring Yamamoto to LA. Ohtani deferring an incredible $680 million of his $700 million until after the duration of his contract allowed the Dodgers to land his compatriot.
The Dodgers have now spent an unprecedented $1.1 BILLION this winter on Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and now Yama. While this deferral loophole may end up closed in the next CBA, in the meantime the Dodgers have built one of the best teams on paper in decades. How the Yankees pivot after Yamamoto’s snub is key.
How the Yankees Pivot
The Yankees have a clear need for at least one more arm. Outside of Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, there are question marks. Carlos Rodon was hurt and struggled, as did Nestor Cortes. Clarke Schmidt was solid, leaving one spot open.
Having traded some top-end pitching depth such as Michael King to land Juan Soto in the deal with the Padres; the Yankees may look at the free-agent market. As mentioned earlier, demand will soar for the remaining names.
Here are the top two names:
Jordan Montgomery
Why?
The more you look at the remaining market, it would be appealing for the Yankees to reunite with Jordan Montgomery. He was a Yankee farm system alum who turned into a solid back end of the rotation starter for the Yanks.
However, Cashman traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals for Harrison Bader, claiming he would not make their playoff rotation. This turned out to be a costly mistake. Publically claiming that a starter wasn’t good enough for their playoff rotation, who then becomes the ace leading the Texas Rangers to win the World Series is not a good look.
The Yankees analytics team, led by much-maligned Mike Fishman, along with pitching coach Matt Blake, didn’t get the most of out Montgomery. Once he moved to St. Louis and then Texas, both organizations had him use his fastball more. They then worked on his delivery so that his curve and sinker mirrored each other on delivery, making him more deceptive. This helped him become an ace-caliber starter, pitching to a 2.79 ERA with the Rangers. Plus, he had a 2.90 ERA in the postseason with a 3-1 record. This is a stark improvement on his ERA of just under 4.oo as a Yankee.
How Likely?
It’s unlikely the Yankees admit they made a mistake with him. Hence, this makes a reunion unlikely.
Plus, there are a bunch of teams that would love to have him lead their staff. This is especially true of the Boston Red Sox, who desperately need pitching, and Montgomery’s wife works in Boston. The Blue Jays, Mets, and Giants all need pitching. The Rangers would also love to have him back at the right price.
However, he’s durable and proven in New York. Plus, he’d be extra motivated to show the Yankees made a mistake with him.
Blake Snell
Why?
Without question, Blake Snell is the best pitcher left on the free-agent market. He won the NL Cy Young Award with the Padres with a league-leading 2.25 ERA and a 14-9 record, notching 234 strikeouts (third in baseball). He became just the 7th pitcher ever to win a Cy Young in both leagues. The only drawback with Snell is that he’s not an innings eater. He has only gone above 180 innings twice in his career. His best season was a Ron Guidry-esque 21-5 season with the Rays with a 1.89 ERA in 2018. A one-two punch of the game’s Cy Young winners Gerrit Cole and Snell is tasty potentially.
How Likely?
He reportedly prefers the West Coast teams. He could end up with the Angels after they lost Ohtani, or the Mariners may wish to bring him home to Seattle. Look for the San Francisco Giants to bid on him also.
The Yankees May Change Course
The Yankees may look at Carlos Rodon‘s bad first year in pinstripes as an outlier. It’s possible they look toward him being Cole’s number two in the rotation, lessening the need to spend at the top end of the market. They may then look to a super-pen or a back-end starter.
Frankie Montas
One name in free agency to keep an eye on is Frankie Montas. He was an outright disaster as a Yankee, being injured for basically the entire 18 months he was in New York. He’s seemingly healthy now, so the Yankees may take a flier on him to fill out the back of their rotation and pivot to a super bullpen.
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga, nicknamed the ‘Philosopher,’ is 30 years old, and while he isn’t considered in the same esteem as his compatriot Yamamoto, he has still carved out a successful career in Japan. Last season, he pitched to a 2.80 ERA and 174 strikeouts with exceptional control. He also threw a no-hitter in 2022. Seen more as a mid-to-back end starter, there are questions about how his low-90s fastball will play in the majors. However, he does have a plus splitter.
Continuing to look at other starting pitcher options for the #Yankees, we have Japanese stud Shota Imanaga🔥
Imanaga posted a 2.80 ERA for the BayStars this past season with 174 strikeouts over just 148 innings👀
Should the Yankees bring him in?🧐#RepBX pic.twitter.com/wfxlztD8NC
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) December 26, 2023
Josh Hader
Perhaps after acquiring a back-end starter, they pivot by acquiring free agent closer Josh Hader. The flame-throwing lockdown closer would be a massive upgrade to Clay Holmes who far too often appears on the brink of implosion when he closes. The Yankees will have steep competition for Hader from the Rangers, who are also in need of a closer.
Miami Trade?
There are several ways the Yankees can approach the trade market. But it most likely won’t involve further depleting their minor-league pitching depth.
A possible trade partner exists in the Miami Marlins. Jesus Luzardo is coming off 32 starts, 10 wins, and a stellar 3.50 ERA. Another high-end arm, Edward Cabrera, could be available. Alternatively, Braxton Garrett had a solid season for Miami. The reason they could be of interest is that Miami needs bats, and has a surplus of pitching, whereas the Yankees farm system is well stocked with bats but light on pitching.
The most obvious names that I could see being made available by the Yankees are Everson Pereira and Oswaldo Cabrera. Both of their opportunities look limited with Soto, Verdugo, and Judge making up the outfield. Plus, Jasson Dominguez will return mid-season and Spencer Jones looks set to be ready to break into the big leagues by late August/September ’24.
Perhaps the Yankees deal Gleyber Torres in the last year of his deal, opening up a spot for top infield prospect Oswald Peraza. The rest of the infield seems set, with Anthony Volpe winning a Gold Glove at shortstop in his rookie year, DJ LeMahieu at third and Anthony Rizzo returning at first.
However, after Torres’ solid offensive season last year, they will most likely keep him and have Peraza as their utility infielder. Torres was their most consistent and durable bat last year with Judge’s injury.
Ace Trade?
Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers, the three-time All-Star and Cy Young Award winner in 2021, has pitched well in the postseason throughout his career to a sub-3.oo ERA. He’s the best pitcher on the trade market with a nasty cutter, slider, and curve repertoire.
The one thing hurting the Yankees’ chances is the lack of high-end pitching available to trade after dealing for Soto. Chase Hampton is the Yankees’ number 1 pitching prospect, but it would be surprising if they moved him after keeping him out of the Soto deal.
A more affordable trade option may be Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox. A package centering around Clayton Beeter and Everson Pereira may be enough to tempt the White Sox. Cease had an incredible 2022, finishing second in the Cy Young voting, but got shelled last season with a 4.58 ERA. Perhaps Matt Blake can help get him back on track, since for the majority of his career he’s been an excellent starter.
Reasons for Cheer
There’s no reason why this shouldn’t be a Happy New Year for the Yankees as long as they make their plan B a success.
Look for them to explore the pitching names above to close out a successful offseason, despite Yamamoto’s snub. The Yankees remain in good shape after the Soto and Verdugo deals. As long as they have a smart, judicious plan, they will be back amongst the contending teams once it’s said and done.
Happy Holidays to all readers!
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