Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Did The Yankees Pitchers Outperform Projections?

After covering the New York Yankees hitters and their projections and performance, one has to ask, did the Pitchers also match up? Before the start of the 2023 season, many experts believed the Yankees had the best rotation in baseball. This was after acquiring Carlos Rodòn via free agency to add to a strong rotation. They had a genuinely vaunted rotation where all five pitchers were, at minimum, a 2 in any other Major League rotation. The Yankees expected their rotation to carry them into the playoff and, eventually, the World Series. However, the Yankees rotation did not hold and fell significantly short of expectations. Only One pitcher, Gerrit Cole, crushed his season projections. Meanwhile, the rest of the Rotation did not even come close to reaching their projections.

Did The Yankees Pitchers Outperform Projections?

On field performance part 1

Gerrit Cole, as mentioned before, performed his season projections by a significant margin. ZIPS had him throwing 177.2 innings, along with him throwing to a 3.09 ERA and a WAR of 4.4. Ultimately, he obliterated those metrics, posting a 2.63 ERA along with throwing 209 innings and a 7.5 WAR. That was the highest WAR on the Yankees this season, and he’s put himself in a prime position to win the AL Cy Young. Cole arguably had the best career year and will look to lead the Yankees rotation into the future. However, Cole was the only strong performer of the original 2023 Yankees rotation.

Carlos Rodòn was supposed to be the number 2 behind Cole in the rotation. He was projected to have a 4.6 WAR, throw 160.1 innings, and a 3.03 ERA. In reality, Rodòn was injured throughout most of the year, showing glimpses of the great pitcher the Yankees acquired. However, he could not put it all together in his first year as a Yankee. Rodòn only threw 64.1 innings, finishing with a 6.85 ERA and a negative -0.8 WAR. Rodòn will have to step it up going into year two as he is a crucial part of the rotation and the Yankee team as a whole.

On field performance part 2

Luis Severino did not fare much better than Rodòn as he also had a season to forget. His projections were a 1.7 WAR with a 3.54 ERA and 104.1 innings of work. Severino also was injured for a large portion of the year. He started the season on fire, dominating against the San Diego Padres, but could not sustain his dominance. Severino finished the year with a 6.65 ERA and a WAR of negative -1.5 over 89.1 innings of work. Unfortunately, this was the wrong time for Severino to have the worst year of his career, as he is now a free agent. The Yankees will likely not resign Severino, but one could imagine if another organization can keep him healthy, the old ace like Sevy will return.

Nestor Cortes Jr. has become a fan favorite in recent years. It’s not hard to see why, as he has an iconic mustache and throwing motion. Not to mention he is very good. This year, he could not stay healthy and fell short of his projections, which were a 2.7 WAR, 3.43 ERA, and a total of 139 innings pitched. Cortes finished with a .5 WAR, an ERA of 4.97, and a total of 63.1 innings pitched. The question now is if he can hold up over an entire season of work due to his smaller frame.

Frankie Montas could not compare against his projections as he was out injured with shoulder surgery for almost the entire season. He only pitched in the remaining two games of the season. Now he enters free agency and will probably not return as a Yankee.

Wrapping up

The Yankees rotation heavily underperformed in 2023 and could be seen as one of the biggest culprits. This rotation should have aided a struggling offense but ultimately was constantly injured. The Yankees, in the future, will need to consider signing players with a track record of good health. This is always the Achilles heel of any team, but as of 2023, it broke the Yankees.

Main Photo Credits: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports


More Posts

Send Us A Message