The Veteran Starter the Mets Must Sign

New York is a tough place to play. However, you don’t get sympathy for dealing with it. No matter how unfair it may be, players must be strong enough to deal with the media attention, tough fans, and high expectations that come with New York. The Mets have had too many players, especially in recent years, that struggled under that pressure.

The Mets don’t have to worry about this with Montgomery. The lefty spent the first five and a half years of his career in New York with the Yankees. In the Bronx, Montgomery tossed 502 2/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA. While New York is tough, some say there’s added pressure in playing for an iconic brand like the Yankees. That didn’t seem to bother Montgomery.

On top of being New York-tested, Montgomery is currently excelling in the playoffs with the Texas Rangers. In four starts, Montgomery has tossed 22 2/3 innings with a 2.38 ERA while striking out 16 and walking only four. Though he pitched well in Game 5 on Friday, he likely would have had better numbers with better defense behind him.

The Yankees traded him at the 2022 trade deadline reportedly because they didn’t trust him to pitch in the playoffs. Montgomery is currently proving them wrong while showing the entire league that he can lead a rotation through a deep October run.

The Mets must take advantage of the rare time that a pitcher with proven New York and October success is available. Chris Bassitt, acquired in 2022 with a reputation for being tough, seemingly melted under the pressure in two crucial starts, including a win-or-go-home playoff game. The Mets should have learned that you don’t know who really is tough and can handle the pressure until they prove it. Montgomery has proven it.

Age

In the past two offseasons, the Mets have given three multi-year deals to pitchers 33 or older. Even worse, they heavily relied on two of them, both 37 or older, to lead the rotation. That did not work out.

Montgomery, who will be 31 by next Opening Day, isn’t expected to sign for more than five years. It’s even possible he signs a shorter deal worth more money per year, a structure the Mets can offer. With Kodai Senga leading the rotation and ideally Yamamoto behind him, the Mets would pencil in Montgomery as a reliable mid-rotation starter in his early 30s. As the team saw with Jose Quintana last year, that’s not a bad thing to have.

It’s possible to efficiently build successful teams with veteran mid-rotation starters on free-agent deals. Montgomery would be that guy for the Mets. He also represents a solid presence in a rotation that will be changing in the next two or three years. He fits well now behind Senga and Yamamoto, but will also be valuable as multiple prospects reach the majors starting mid-2024.

Cost

Mid-rotation veterans just over 30, like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon, signed four-year deals worth around $80 million last winter. After a great past year and a half, which includes this postseason, Montgomery’s price has likely risen to over $100 million. However, many expect him to get much less than the top available starters, Yamamoto and Blake Snell.

The New York Mets Should Take Notice of Jordan Montgomery https://t.co/mH28I5LRVx @FinkelsteinRyan

— Mets News and Links (@JohnFromAlbany) October 16, 2023

The Mets should offer Montgomery a deal worth no more than roughly $125 million over five years or $120 million over four years. Quality pitching is expensive. Even if this is a slight overpay, Steve Cohen should be able to afford it, especially for a perfect fit.

The Mets will also have some money freed up over the next couple of years. Quintana’s $13 million comes off the books after 2024m while Senga can opt out of two years and $30 million after 2025. Montgomery also represents insurance if the Mets trade Quintana and his salary to get more prospects. They can fill the rest of the rotation with a plethora of decent prospects making around the league minimum.

Additionally, Montgomery’s mid-season trade made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. This means a team won’t lose a draft pick when signing him. The Mets emphasized this last year and should do the same this winter.

Even if Cohen and Stearns would prefer to get younger and spend less on free agents, the organization needs to spend for another year or two. The farm system is not ready to provide sustainable cheap talent yet. Montgomery won’t necessarily get the Mets younger or cheaper. But, he makes the team better for the next couple of years and allows the farm system to continue improving. The Mets must sign Montgomery because he is a perfect fit for the organization and should be affordable.