The MLB Playoff Picture is starting to set with three weeks to go. What teams are emerging, and what teams are trending downwards?
MLB Playoff Picture
The American League
This week, in the AL: Will the Houston Astros lead in the AL West be sustainable? Have the Minnesota Twins kept the Cleveland Guardians at arm’s length for long enough? Can the Texas Rangers win back any traction in the playoff race?
AL East: Yankees Back In It
Even without Felix Bautista, the Baltimore Orioles are humming like a bird. With another five-game winning streak, they managed to widen the gap between themselves and the Tampa Bay Rays at 3.5 games. The Rays themselves are in a weird position in the MLB playoff picture. They have a .600 winning percentage, the best run differential in the conference, and the 2nd best in the league. They are a very talented team, “they should be a favorite for the World Series” one could think. And yet, they find themselves playing in the Wild Card, while struggling to keep up with the Orioles for the division title. They will make the playoffs, and anything could happen. But even so, Rays fans dream of what a healthy season could have been.
Down in the Wild Card bubble, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox are fighting two different battles. The Jays managed to get through another week, and are hoping that the Texas Rangers implosion keeps going so that they can secure the final Wild Card spot. Boston however, is just trying their best to keep itself in the theoretical playoff race and not be last place in the division. That’s right, ladies and gents, the New York Yankees have remembered how to play baseball. They are back at a .500 record. They have won five of six, while sweeping the Astros, of all teams. Can their 20-year-old prospect Jasson Dominguez light a fire under this Yankees team that was dead in the water? Or is it too late? Only time will tell.
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AL West: Rangers Losing Ground
In the West, the three-man race is slowly turning back into a duel. But while the Astros remain constant, the Rangers are being replaced by the feisty Seattle Mariners. Seattle is only a half-game back of Houston for the division lead, and when that title is the difference between a 1st round bye and a series on the road against the Rays, you know the fight will be bitter to the end.
But while the Astros and Mariners have both been around .500 in the past week, the Rangers are, once again, collapsing in ways few could have imagined possible. Not only were they swept by Houston, but they also lost two out of three to the Twins. This skid put them three games back for the division, and a half-game back OUT of the playoffs. Texas needs to wake up now. Or they’ll join the Los Angeles Angels in the “Laughing Stock of the MLB” group.
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AL Central: NWD
You might be wondering, dear reader, what NWD stands for. Well, in this case, it means “Not Worth Discussing”. And it’s not because the Guardians have fallen out of contention for the division. They are still alive for it, albeit while standing six games back from Minnesota.
It’s because, on September 3rd, the Cleveland Guardians entered the Minnesota series five games back, in the last games they will play against the only team that they can catch up to for the playoff race. These were three games they had to win to have any chance. And what did Cleveland do? They proceeded to get shelled to a degree where the likes of Dresden are calling this overkill. 20 runs allowed. In the first game of a crucial series, against a team without Byron Buxton. It got so bad, that David Fry offered to pitch the final four innings, in an effort to save their bullpen arms. He’s a catcher.
After a performance like that, I just don’t think anyone can argue that the Guardians can be a competitive team. Not while having a Runs Scored Differential of -5. Not while being six games back of the 1st place team in the worst division in baseball. And certainly not while being five games under .500.
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Wild Card:
Right now, the Wild Card race in the AL seems to be merely a contest for one spot in the immediate future. With the Rays being way ahead at 7.5 games, and the Mariners having a two-game lead too, the final spot has four contestants. Two realistic contenders, in the Jays and Rangers, as they are either in or 0.5 a game back. And two wishing for the pie in the sky, in the Red Sox and Yankees, who are five, and respectively, seven games out of the playoffs.
The National League
This week, in the NL: Are the Miami Marlins done after their tremendous injuries? Can the Chicago Cubs overtake the Milwaukee Brewers for the division? Will the San Francisco Giants continue their late-season collapse?
NL East: Injured Marlins
The Atlanta Braves are getting so bored, they are losing to the St. Louis Cardinals. And the Philadelphia Phillies are finding new ways to frustrate their fans while still being a good team. The Miami Marlins are adding a Shakespearian drama to this already dramatic division.
.@Marlins place Sandy Alcantara (right forearm flexor strain) on 15-day IL and Jorge Soler (right oblique strain) on 10-day IL. pic.twitter.com/2u6g61JNXf
— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2023
Last week, I declared the Marlins dead. Naturally, they destroyed my take instantly, busting their cold streak with a six-game winning streak. And that’s when whatever was in the Tampa Bay water got to Miami, because here come the untimely injuries. You were hoping to get back in the playoff race, Miami? Too bad, Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler are on the IL. Probably for the rest of the season, too. Half of a game out of the Wild Card, the Marlins need to keep going. If they can after such a blow to both the team and its morale remains to be seen.
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NL West: Giant Disappointment
Let us travel back in time. It’s August 3rd, and the season is looking very different for the Giants. They are 2.5 games back of the division lead and have the 3rd highest winning percentage in the NL. They have playoff hopes, some fans even dream of a World Series run. And with their hot hitting, anything is possible.
But back in the present, all of that hope is lost. As the Los Angeles Dodgers kept winning despite their pitching woes and the Arizona Diamondbacks went through hot and cold streaks, the Giants look to be on the brink of an epic collapse. The bats cooled off, and it resulted in a brutal skid of a six-game losing streak. A 6-14 record in their last 20. A nuclear-level meltdown, that threw them out of the Wild Card spot. Their last chance to salvage the season is here. These upcoming series against the Colorado Rockies and Guardians are one final shot at redemption. They better take it.
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NL Central: Cubs Closing In
Things have started to be interesting again in the NL Central. As the Brewers cooled off, the Cubs seemed hell-bent on stealing the division title from them, as they slowly but surely narrowed the gap in the standings. And while this dispute will probably be settled in their direct matchup near the end of the year, the teams must maintain form until then. Or they risk the Cincinnati Reds catching up to them, thanks to their soft schedule and streaky young talent.
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Wild Card
Seemingly copying the AL, the NL Wild Card also seems to be a one-spot race. As the Phillies and Cubs stay at an arm’s distance, with five and three-game leads, the Diamondbacks have to defend the last Wild Card spot against a few suitors. Both the Reds and the Marlins are right there, 0.5 games behind Arizona, and while the Giants have regressed, they are only 2.5 games back. The San Diego Padres are seven games back and are dreaming of a hot stretch that will probably never come.
Main photo credits:
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
