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Chase Silseth Dominates Mariners Offense: Lucky or Legit?

In his Sunday afternoon fixture, Chase Silseth utterly dominated the Seattle Mariners. The 23-year-old righty pitched seven innings of two-run ball, where he struck out a career-high 12 batters. Despite not factoring into the decision, there were a lot of surface-level metrics to like about the start. Having said this, after taking a deeper look at the available advanced metrics from the matchup, was his dominance due to luck, or does the young Los Angeles Angels starter possess legitimate fantasy baseball upside?

Chase Silseth Dominates Mariners: Lucky or Legit?

Matchup Against the Yankees 07/19

Following his July 19th return to the Majors, Chase Silseth looked like a different pitcher. My July 19th pitching report noted the changes made to his slider and overall pitch mix:

The 23-year-old righty from New Mexico made a handful of interesting changes in this start. First, he threw a brand new slider. Compared to his seasonal averages, the pitch was 3.7 mph slower, had 132 fewer RPM, eight more inches of vertical break, and two extra inches of horizontal break. In addition to unveiling the reinvented slider, Silseth completely redesigned his pitch mix around the new pitch.

  • Pitch mix prior to Wednesday’s start: 4-Seamer (43%), Cutter (22%), Slider (14%), Splitter (13%), Sinker (7%)
  • Pitch mix on Wednesday: Slider (46%), Sinker (33%), 4-Seamer (14%), Splitter (7%)

Notably, Silseth increased his slider usage in this start by 32%, his sinker usage by 26%, and decreased his 4-seamer usage by 29%. Additionally, he completely removed the cutter from his mix. These alterations were justified on Wednesday as his slider earned an outstanding 54% CSW and 10 whiffs while his sinker dazzled with a 43% CSW. Despite the dip in usage, his 4-seamer also performed great, registering a 33% CSW and a 60% swing-and-miss rate.

Matchup Against the Braves 07/31

After the Angels traded for Lucas Giolito, Silseth was taken out of the rotation for what was supposed to be his second start back against the Detroit Tigers. This hiatus did not last long as 12 days after his intriguing start on July 19th, he found himself back in the starting rotation. However, this time his matchup was not so kind. He was set to take on the powerhouse offense of the Atlanta Braves. Despite the potential for a horrific outing, Silseth remained solid in a surprising way. While one might have expected Silseth to run with the changes that helped him achieve his longest career start (and 10 strikeouts), he reverted essentially back to his pre-July 19th pitch mix for this start.

  • Pitch mix against the Braves on 07/31: 4-Seamer (41%), Slider (30%), Sinker (16%), Splitter (11%), Cutter (2%)

His fastball certainly took the cake as the most dominant pitch in this outing. The pitch amassed an elite 42% CSW while the slider settled for 26%. While his fastball looked great in this outing, there was some cause for skepticism. Despite allowing just three hits in his outing, he surrendered a staggering average exit velocity of 97.1 mph. Additionally, his sinker, splitter, and cutter, were largely ineffective against the skilled Braves offense. Overall, we should offer Silseth a pass for at least the majority of his flaws in this outing given the strength of his opposition.

Matchup Against the Mariners 08/06

A combination of seven two-run innings paired with his 12 strikeouts resulted in a sensational outing against Seattle for Silseth. Interestingly, Silseth dramatically altered his pitch mix once again:

  • Pitch mix against the Mariners on 08/06: Slider (40%), Splitter (25%), 4-Seamer (24%), Sinker (9%), Cutter (2%)

Compared to his start against Atlanta, Silseth dropped his fastball usage down by 16%, while increasing the usage of his slider and splitter. This marked the first of the three starts in which he used his splitter more than 7% and it got tremendously positive results. The pitch worked an absurd 12 whiffs on 19 swings for a 48% CSW. The unexpected splitter success did not come at much of a price as Silseth’s slider was almost equally as impressive. The pitch amassed eight whiffs on 19 swings for a 42% CSW. The 4-seamer was not as impressive as it was in his start against the Braves. The pitch was hit at an average exit velocity of 101.2 mph and got no whiffs on six swings.

Luck or Legit?

Verdict: Legit

I’ve been quite high on Silseth since he dominated the New York Yankees‘ offense and debuted the changes to his pitch mix and individual pitches. In fact, he was one of my three exciting waiver-wire pitchers to watch in the month of July. While Silseth may not be able to keep up this otherworldly level of dominance for the rest of the season, everything indicates that this string of positive results is legitimate. He’s displayed impressive versatility finding success with his 4-seamer, slider, sinker, and splitter in his current Major League stint. Since he made his first start back with the Angels on June 19th, he leads the Halos starters in many metrics including BB/9, K/9, xFIP, GB%, and SIERA.

It is important to note that Silseth is surrendering a likely unmanageable hard contact rate of 57.9%. There is a chance that this high figure is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the 23-year-old has been able to keep the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time. With that being said, it is definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward.

Ultimately, Silseth’s ability to dominate batters and generate whiffs with at least four of his pitches makes him an intriguing fantasy option. As the Angels try to claw their way into a wild card spot, they are likely going to be banking on Silseth’s continued success down the stretch. His next scheduled start is against the Houston Astros this weekend. For fantasy purposes, Silseth should, at the very least, be considered a serious streaming option.

Main photo credits:

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Chase Silseth, Lucas Giolito

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