MLB betting picks are here, especially for anyone battling the Monday blues. We are officially into the “dog days” of summer in the MLB season. With the trade deadline past, teams can switch their focus to a postseason push. The Chicago Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball. After having a quiet deadline, they have won five out of their last six and are now 1 ½ games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
Conversely, life does not get any more accessible as a Los Angeles Angels fan. After buying at the deadline, including moves that brought in Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dominic Leone, C.J. Cron, and Randal Grichuk, they have lost every game since the trade deadline. They currently sit 10 ½ games out in their division and seven games in the wild card.
Monday features a jam-packed 12 games, kicking off at 4:10 EST with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres finishing their four-game set. Below are three MLB picks for Monday, including a bonus batter prop in Chicago.
MLB Betting Picks: 12 Game Slate
Washington Nationals F5 ML (+165) vs Philadelphia Phillies
The Nationals have been hot in August, going 4-1 and sweeping the Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies have been going well, too. They took two out of three a scorchingly hot Kansas City Royals team and had been getting Bryce Harper (11 hits in last seven games) and Trea Turner (hits in last three, including HR) going recently. But they have a suspect Ranger Suarez on the mound tonight and a Nationals team who have been crushing lefties all season (109 wRC+).
Ranger Suarez’s underlying results have taken a hit this season, with his xERA at 4.53, a step down from the impressive 3.78 he achieved last year. Furthermore, his pitch modelling metrics have consistently fallen below average over the past three years, recording a 97 Pitching+ in 2023 and 2021 and a slightly lower 96 Pitching+ in 2022.
Trevor Williams’s arm is difficult to trust, but given his underlying numbers sit similar to Suarez’s last season, he back the Nationals’ first five tonight for plus money.
Batter Prop of the Day: Soler o1.5 (TB) (-125) vs Williamson (CIN)
Miami Marlins‘ Jorge Soler has been raking in his past nine games, with hits in eight. He currently ranks in the top 90% this year in barrel %, max exit velocity, and xSLG. Soler also has an xBA of .269 on the slider. Interestingly enough, that’s Brandon Williamson’s most-thrown pitch this season.
Williamson’s BABIP of .267 indicates a bit of luck this season, and his ERA is an entire run lower than the expected mark. He has given up multiple runs in three of his last four starts, only able to go six innings in two.
Bonus pick: Aaron Judge o0.5 BB (-210) vs. CWS (Cease)
Pitcher Prop of the Day: Spencer Strider (ATL) o9.5 K vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves Spencer Strider has been one of the most dominant pitchers since he entered the league in 2021. entire first entire season, he struck out 202, was 6th in the NL, and is currently sitting first this year with 208. These are his strikeout totals from the last five games: nine against the Angels, ten against the Red Sox and White Sox, 11 against the Rays and 13 against the Diamondbacks. Talk about domination from the potential Cy Young finalist.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have double-digit strikeouts in four of their first six games in August and 11-19 in their last 30 games. Expect Strider to make easy work of the Pirates lineup tonight.
Photo Credit: © Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dominic Leone, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez, Jorge Soler, Brandon Williamson, Aaron Judge, Spencer Strider
