Waiver wire sleepers are the focus for Week 18. Quality free-agent pickings are slim this time of the season. At a certain point, a 70% rostered dud becomes worth dropping for a long-shot stud that may only be 7% rostered. Highlighting some waiver wire sleepers who have performed well of late, here are five free-agent targets for Week 18.
Waiver Wire Sleepers for Week 18
Waiver Wire Sleeper Breakout
Graham Ashcraft
With an ERA of 5.18 over 113 innings, Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft does not have a good-looking pitching line for the season. But as a surging Reds team has improved, so have Ashcraft’s results.
Over the past month, his ERA is 2.17, and he’s won three of those six starts. One helpful aspect of this improvement can be noted in his home run rate, which is 10.5% HR/FB over those six starts. His season line is 15.6% HR/FB. And of course, he pitches in Great American Smallpark, so this aspect of his game is key.
Another change in Ashcraft’s process involves moving away from throwing his sinker. It’s one of the worst pitches in baseball with a 56 Stuff+. However, Ashcraft has the best slider, according to this model, with a 165 Stf+ SL.
He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, utilizing this elite slider and an excellent cutter, which checks in at a great 115 Stf+ FC. These two plus pitches earn him a spot at the top of the leaderboard for Stuff+.
Perhaps in the off-season, Ashcraft can develop something a bit softer for his repertoire, which could launch him into the elite echelons of starters. For now, he’s harnessing what he can from his tool kit and starting to win ball games for a team that suddenly has playoff hopes.
Ashcraft’s roster rates technically disqualify him as a sleeper on a list otherwise populated by waiver-wire sleepers. But his surface stats may have owners in certain leagues sleeping on him.
With a Week 18 matchup against a below-average offense in the Miami Marlins, Ashcraft could be good for near and long-term category help for fantasy managers.
Waiver Wire Sleeper #1
Mike Moustakas
It’s either that newly acquired Los Angeles Angels infielder Mike Moustakas prefers the weather on his native west coast to the altitude in Colorado. Or he’s even more motivated in the homestretch of a free agent year, now that he’s playing for a contender touting guys like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Regardless, the Moose is loose. And in case he needed more motivation to continue his great play of late, the Angels just went on a shopping spree for fellow Colorado Rockies C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, who was featured last week.
Since coming over from the Rockies in late June, Moose is batting .270 and has walloped six home runs. In fact, his season slash is up to a respectable .270/.335./.448.
He’s performed even better the past couple of weeks, lowering his strikeout rate to 17% while hitting .333 and starting nearly every game. His process during that span is noticeably better, as his contact percentage has increased by 10%.
Moustakas is clearly out to prove there’s something left in the tank at age 34. There is no doubt a quality hitter lurks in his lovably lumbering frame. As long as he’s on a heater hitting in the middle of a much improved Angels’ lineup, Moustakas can be a solid add for fantasy managers.
Sleeper #2
Max Kepler
Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler makes way too much contact to only be hitting .237. Sporting excellent rates of 80% Contact and 89% Zone Contact, Statcast tends to agree.
Forecasting a .252 xBA, Statcast also foresees improvements in slugging percentage. Kepler strikes out at a very good 21% clip. With a career-best 45% hard-hit rate, better results have already begun to percolate.
Since the All-Star break, Kepler has launched five home runs to go along with a .320 batting average. He’s also chipped in 11 RBI and scored 16 times.
Kepler is already 30 and looking at a club option for his 2024 pro campaign. With the continuing good process, he should reward the Twins and any fantasy managers who need some category boosts.
Sleeper #3
Brandon Belt
35-year-old Toronto Blue Jay Brandon Belt continues the list of crusty, veteran waiver wire sleepers.
Belt helped some fantasy managers pull out championships with the tear he went on in late 2021. What he has to show for his contribution as the Jays’ DH in 2023 has been less than stellar.
In over 300 plate appearances, Belt has posted his career-worst strikeout rate at almost 35%. Beyond that horrid number, it’s actually not so bad.
Belt has demonstrated his trademark batting eye with a walk rate of over 15%. His very fine slash line of .250/.365/.448 tallies up to a well above average 128 wRC+.
Over the past month, Belt has shown noticeable plate skills improvement with a strikeout rate of 25%. His robust ISO of .281 includes four home runs over 68 plate appearances. That’s all good for a .544 slugging percentage.
The Blue Jays already call their home park one of the best offensive environments in baseball. The schedule for the next month also includes trips to Great American Ball Park and Coors Field.
Available in almost all formats and league sizes, Brandon Belt’s platoon tendencies can also make a sneaky DFS play for daily fantasy devotees.
Sleeper #4
Zack Littell
Despite having an injury-depleted rotation, the Tampa Bay Rays only snagged Aaron Civale at the deadline. Instead, converted reliever Zack Littell has been their fill-in. Now that Shane McClanahan faces injury absence, Littell’s new rotation spot looks secure.
Since converting to starting, Littell’s work has been admirable, posting a 1.65 ERA. He went at least five innings in his last two starts and won both of those decisions against the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers.
Like similarly named teammate Zach Eflin, Littell’s repertoire consists of a mediocre fastball complemented by excellent secondaries. Even though his fastball has been hit around to the tune of .346, Statcast expects better results with a .260 xBA.
Littell’s primary purpose pitch is the slider, which gets great Whiffs at 21.6%. He deploys it at 33.9%, almost as much as his fastball. Stuff+ grades the slider as an above-average 107 Stf+ SL.
But his out pitch is the split-finger, which generates a 27.3 Whiff%. Stuff+ also really likes the pitch, rating it a 115 Stf+ FS.
The Rays seem to have a knack for maximizing pitching skill sets. By employing his terrific offspeed pitches 53% of the time, Littell uses his fastball as the change of pace pitch. And the formula seems to be working.
If the Rays pitch him on normal rest, Littell lines up for a start at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in Week 18. Then, he gets potential matchups against below-average offenses in the San Francisco Giants and the Rockies around the corner.
Main photo credits:
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Graham Ashcraft, Mike Moustakas, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Max Kepler, Brandon Belt, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin
