Welcome, my fellow degenerates, to the daily series for profitable plays. In this series, we dive into the day’s slate of games, find the three most interesting, and find a winner. Pitching is key in baseball, and pitching is key in profit. Here are our picks for the best bets on August 4th.
Best Bets for August 4th
The Headliner: Marlins @ Rangers
After dropping three of their last four at home, the Miami Marlins look to bounce back tonight while sending lefty Jesus Luzardo to the mound. In 22 starts this season, Luzardo has a 3.38 ERA across 125 innings with 147 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 1.96 ERA across 41 1/3 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. Luzardo has not pitched as well on the road. In nine road starts, he carries a 4.63 ERA across 46 2/3 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. The Texas Rangers have a very potent offense, especially with Corey Seager back. They also play in a hitters’ haven. These factors do not bode well for Luzardo.
The Rangers will counter with a lefty of their own and the debut of Jordan Montgomery. In 21 starts this season, he carries a 3.42 ERA across 121 innings with 108 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP. Over his last seven, he boasts a 2.53 ERA across 42 2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. Montgomery has not pitched at Globe Life Field this season, but he has, however, made one start against the Marlins. In that start, he allowed one earned run on six hits and two walks while striking out five. The Rangers had one successful pitching debut yesterday, and all signs point to another successful debut today.
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The Play: Rangers ML (-145) – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Marlins First Five Under 2.5 (-180) – 0.5U
A Tale of Two Divisions: Diamondbacks @ Twins
Yet another visiting team coming off of dropping three of four to a divisional opponent and looking to get back on track. This time, it is the Arizona Diamondbacks sending Merrill Kelly to the mound. In 18 starts this season, Kelly has a 3.23 ERA across 106 innings with 109 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.83 ERA across 42 1/3 innings with 40 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP. Kelly has pitched much better on the road. In eight road starts, he sports a 2.74 ERA across 46 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. It also plays in the Diamondbacks’ favor that their opponent has a 34-39 record against teams not in the AL Central.
The Minnesota Twins will counter with Bailey Ober. In 17 starts, Ober has a 3.19 ERA across 98 2/3 innings with 95 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 3.95 ERA across 41 innings with 41 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Ober has pitched much better at Target Field. In 10 home starts, he has a 2.98 ERA across 57 1/3 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. However, when facing teams at home with a record above .500 and/or not from the AL Central, he sports a 3.97 ERA across 34 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. Expect an output closer to that in this matchup.
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The Play: Diamondbacks ML (+110) – 1U
Bonus Team Total: Diamondbacks Over 3.5 (-135) – 0.5U
Friday Gimme: Royals @ Phillies
In our Friday Gimme pick of the week, the Kansas City Royals look to keep their six-game win streak alive while sending Jordan Lyles to the mound. In 20 starts this season, Lyles has a 6.15 ERA across 112 2/3 innings with 80 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. Over his last seven, he sports a 4.85 ERA across 39 innings with 25 strikeouts and a 1.28 WHIP. Lyles has pitched much worse away from Kauffman Stadium this season. In 10 road starts, he has a 7.52 ERA across 52 2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.50 WHIP. Lyles’ role this season has mostly been to eat innings, regardless of the outcome, and that is what he has done.
The Philadelphia Phillies will counter with ace number two, Aaron Nola. In 22 starts this season, Nola has a 4.43 ERA across 138 innings with 139 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.95 ERA across 43 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Despite it being a hitters’ haven, Nola has pitched much better at Citizens Bank Park this season. In eight home starts, he boasts a 3.27 ERA across 52 1/3 innings with 55 strikeouts and a 0.94 WHIP. The key in tonight’s outing will be making sure Rob Thomson does not leave Nola in longer than necessary, as has been the cause for most of Nola’s “bad results” this season.
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The Gimme: Phillies ML (-260) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Nola Over 6.5 K’s (-132) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Jesus Luzardo, Corey Seager, Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly, Bailey Ober, Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola
