Welcome fellow degenerates to our daily baseball betting series. In it, we take a look at the day’s slate of games, find the three most intriguing, and determine which team we will be taking action on. Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 28th.
Baseball Bets for July 28th
The Headliner: Angels @ Blue Jays
Our first matchup of the day sees Lucas Giolito making his debut for the Los Angeles Angels after Wednesday night’s trade. Through 21 starts, Giolito has a 3.79 ERA across 121 innings with 131 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.31 ERA across 39 2/3 innings with 47 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Before being traded, he did make one start against the Toronto Blue Jays this season. In that start, he allowed two runs (both earned), on four hits, and two walks, and struck out four in six innings. With this being Giolito’s debut for his new team, he will want to prove to them that they made the right decision by bringing him in.
The Blue Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman. In 20 starts, Gausman has a 3.18 ERA across 121 2/3 innings with 162 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.31 ERA across 39 2/3 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.21 WHIP. Gausman has performed better at home this season. In nine home starts, he carries a 2.58 ERA across 59 1/3 innings with 85 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. This will, however, only be Gausman’s second start since the All-Star break as he has been dealing with a nagging “left side discomfort.” In the other post-break start, he allowed four runs (all earned) on five hits and no walks, while striking out nine in six innings. Expect a lot of strikeouts from both sides in this matchup.
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The Play: Angels ML (+160) – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Giolito Over 5.5 K’s (-115) – 0.5U
Texas, Meet California: Rangers @ Padres
In game one of this three-game weekend inter-league matchup, the Texas Rangers will look to continue their Cinderella season by sending Dane Dunning to the mound. In 22 games (14 starts), Dunning has a 3.18 ERA across 102 innings with 64 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he carries a 3.74 ERA across 43 1/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Dunning has pitched better on the road. In 11 games (seven starts), he sports a 2.79 ERA across 48 1/3 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP. While Dunning has been serviceable as a starter, he has not been as good as when he comes in in relief. In his 14 starts, he carries a 3.53 ERA across 81 2/3 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP.
The San Diego Padres will counter with Joe Musgrove. In 16 starts, Musgrove carries a 3.25 ERA across 91 1/3 innings with 92 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Over his last seven, he boasts a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings with 45 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. Musgrove has not pitched as well at home. In nine home starts, he carries a 3.40 ERA across 50 1/3 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Limiting the baserunners in today’s matchup will go a long way toward securing the victory for the Padres. After losing Corey Seager early in last Friday’s game, the Rangers have gone 2-3. Expect another tally in the loss column today.
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The Play: Padres ML (-166) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBI (+150) – 0.5U
Gimme, Gimme, Gimme: Yankees @ Orioles
It’s finally Friday. Everyone could use a boost going into their weekend, right? Well here is yours. The New York Yankees will send Gerrit Cole to the mound today. In 21 starts, Cole has a 2.78 ERA across 129 1/3 innings with 144 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 2.68 ERA across 43 2/3 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 0.96 WHIP. Cole has pitched better on the road this season. In eight road starts, he boasts a 2.59 ERA across 48 2/3 innings with 52 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. This will be his second start against the Baltimore Orioles this season. In the first, he allowed five runs (all earned), on six hits, and three walks, while striking out two in five innings. Expect a much different performance this time around.
The Orioles will counter with rookie Grayson Rodriguez. In 12 starts, Rodriguez has a 6.91 ERA across 56 innings with 66 strikeouts and a 1.66 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 9.09 ERA across 31 2/3 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.86 WHIP. Rodriguez has been absolutely shelled in home starts. In six such starts, he has a 9.11 ERA across 26 2/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 2.14 WHIP. This will be Rodruigez’s third start since being recalled from the minors and a demotion that was supposed to help him get back on track. In his first two starts back, he has a 5.06 ERA across 10 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. While he has been better, he has still not performed like the top prospect he was promised to be.
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The Play: Yankees ML (-125) – 0.5U
Bonus Team Total: Yankees Total Over 4.5 (-105) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Lucas Giolito, Kevin Gausman, Dane Dunning, Joe Musgrove, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole, Grayson Rodriguez
