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Three Exciting July Waiver Wire Pitchers to Keep an Eye On

Keeping your finger on the pulse of the waiver wire can be the difference between winning and losing in your fantasy baseball league. This becomes even more crucial as the season progresses past the All-Star Break. This article provides key insights on three promising July waiver wire pitchers who have emerged as potentially invaluable assets. Rather than solely focusing on their overall results, this article will point out pitchers who have an element of “fun” in their pitcher profile. Whether it be new mechanics, changes in pitch shape, or underrated characteristics, each of these pitchers have an exciting property to their game. These talented arms could be the secret weapons you need to elevate your roster and get an edge over your competitors.

Three Exciting July Waiver Wire Pitchers To Add

Tarik Skubal (49% Rostered)

If he’s available in your league, it’s time to add the king of July waiver wire pitchers, Tarik Skubal. After posting an xERA of 2.86 and an xFIP of 3.34 in 117 2/3 innings in 2022, none of Skubal’s success in his recent start is surprising. In fact, as a result of a significant increase in velocity since returning from flexor tendon surgery, there is reason to believe that his 2023 campaign could be even more dominant than 2022. His 4-seamer, which has gone up nearly two full miles per hour from last year, has been phenomenal when compared to last year:

    • Called Strike + Whiff Rate (CSW): 28.9% -> 31.9%
    • Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%): 12.0% -> 16.8%
    • Strike Rate (Str%): 64.1% -> 76.5%
    • Batting Average (AVG): .257 -> .120
    • Hard Contact Rate (HC%): 30.4% -> 16.0%

While there are some who may be concerned about his ability to pitch deep into games, it’s important to remember that he’s only four starts back from an aggressive rehab process. In his recent, and most dominant, outing he was able to stretch the pitch count to 82 as he worked his first win of the year. The way things are progressing, Skubal should be able to work six innings within a start or two. Overall, there should be minimal concern about his workload moving forward.

The 26-year-old’s sample size is small and some regression is likely to occur, he was able to achieve a 2.86 ERA in 2022, before he substantially increased his velocity (and perhaps command). There is WAY too much to like about the 2023 version of Tarik Skubal to only be 49% rostered amongst Yahoo fantasy leagues. Realistically, he should be considered a top-40 rest-of-season starting pitcher and is very likely the most under-rostered player in fantasy. It really is too bad he plays for the Detroit Tigers.

Chase Silseth (6% Rostered)

This could be premature, but his previous start was too interesting to leave him off the list. Prior to his July 19th start, Chase Silseth only threw 18 2/3 innings and possessed a miserable 5.30 ERA and 5.85 FIP. From these numbers, the excitement around his next start is unclear. The answer can be found in his pitch repertoire.

In his recent start against the New York Yankees, Silseth introduced a brand new slider. Compared to his seasonal averages, the pitch was 3.7 mph slower, with 132 fewer RPM, eight more inches of vertical break, and two extra inches of horizontal break. In addition to the debut of a new pitch, Silseth’s recent outing showcased a brand new pitch mix:

  • Pitch mix prior to the July 19th start: 4-Seamer (43%), Cutter (22%), Slider (14%), Splitter (13%), Sinker (7%)
  • Pitch mix on July 19th: Slider (46%), Sinker (33%), 4-Seamer (14%), Splitter (7%)

The modified slider-heavy pitch mix worked excellently for the Los Angeles Angels righty as he went 5 2/3 innings racking up 10 strikeouts while only surrendering one earned run. The start was Silseth’s longest outing since his first career major league appearance on May 13, 2022.  His slider earned an outstanding 54% CSW and 10 whiffs while his sinker dazzled with a 43% CSW. Despite the dip in usage, his 4-seamer was also great working a 33% CSW and a 60% swing-and-miss rate. Eliminating the cutter completely from the mix was interesting as Silseth had limited batters to a respectable .200 batting average on the pitch. It’s worth noting, however, that the pitch had only earned a 21.3% CSW when it had been used this year.

Overall, it’ll be fascinating to see what Chase Silseth’s pitch mix will look like in his next start. After the Angels vs. Tigers game was postponed on Wednesday, his next opponent will either be the Tigers in a Thursday doubleheader or the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. If his start falls against the Tigers he might be worth an add however a start against the Blue Jays should be observed from the sidelines.

Reese Olson (5% Rostered)

Reese Olson has the stuff to be a great major league pitcher one day. Specifically, the 23-year-old has arguably the most underrated slider in baseball. In terms of Fangraphs’ stuff+ metrics, Olson’s slider grades at an extraordinary 137. For reference, that ranks eighth in the majors and scores identically to Shohei Ohtani’s slider. Additionally, Olson’s slider also happens to take the crown for the highest spin rate in the majors at 3033 RPMs. Not only does Olson’s stuff grade well in models but in most advanced performance-based metrics Olson’s slider ranks extremely high amongst starting pitchers:

  • 21.4% SwStr%: 27th
  • 39.3% CSW%: 8th
  • 67.7% Str%: 29th
  • .150 AVG: 23rd
  • 17.5% HC%: 46th

Additionally, according to Pitcher List, Olson ranks in the top 55 major league starting pitchers in the following categories:

  • 1.10 WHIP: 37th
  • 25.1% K%: 53rd
  • 5.6% BB%: 30th
  • 3.78 xERA: 48th

For context, his 3.78 xERA ranks higher than the following pitchers: Tyler Wells, Mitch Keller, Hunter Greene, and Yu Darvish.

Overall, Olson’s electrifying slider makes him the most exciting young pitcher that nobody seems to be talking about. While his 2023 campaign doesn’t appear to be his breakout year, his stuff is too good for him not to reach a new level soon. There is no question that playing for the Tigers is currently greatly holding back his fantasy potential. At this point, I would recommend playing the matchups with Olson, streaming him when facing any offence in the bottom half of production against righty pitching. Once the rookie increases the effectiveness of his 4-seamer, pairing it with his elite slider, the sky is the limit.

Photo Credit: © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Tarik Skubal, Chase Silseth, Tyler Wells, Mitch Keller, Hunter Greene, Yu Darvish, Tyler Wells, Mitch Keller, Hunter Greene,  Yu Darvish

 

 

 

 

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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