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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 25th

fantasy baseball July 25th

Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for July 25th, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. We document intriguing patterns and metrics presented throughout the previous day each day, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy pitching analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 25th

George Kirby (4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 89 Pitches)

Pitching Report

George Kirby’s Tuesday start against the Twins proved to be largely ineffective, surrendering five runs and seven hits in four innings pitched. What stands out from this start is the general disparity in his pitch results. While it is true that he was responsible for allowing seven hits in this outing, 3/5 of his pitches did not account for a single ball in play. His fastball, thrown 42% of the time this outing, accounted for 5/7 hits and was hit into play eight times. His sinker was responsible for the other two hits and was absolutely crushed both times it was put into play.

Part of the fastball’s problem could have been that the pitch was in the zone too often. In terms of his seasonal average, Kirby ranks in the top 40% of pitchers with a 52.2% zone rate on his 4-seamer. In this start, he took that average to an extreme as he pounded the zone with his 4-seamer 73% of the time. This focus on hitting the strike zone was likely unnecessary against the swing-happy Minnesota Twins. The Twins swung at the pitch 40% of the time it was thrown outside of the zone. Kirby would have known that Twins batters would be chasing his pitches as they hold the league’s highest whiff%. Put simply, there was no need to put heavy emphasis on locating the pitch in the zone as Twins batters were swinging at it wherever it was thrown.

With all that being said, his splitter, slider, and curveball, accounting for 44% of his pitches, were not hit into play a single time in this outing. Additionally, the three successful pitches combined for an average exit velocity below 88 mph and made up nine of his 15 whiffs on the night.

Fantasy Analysis

There really isn’t much to say here other than that this start should not change your opinion of George Kirby. He is a vastly talented young pitcher on an exciting Seattle roster. His hard contact rate can make his off-nights ugly but his low walk rate is what allows him to possess the 12th best WHIP in the majors.

What I will say is, George Kirby could do with allowing a few more walks on the season. Kirby’s 2.3% walk rate is impressive, there is no denying that. However, his obsession with hammering the strike zone can get him into trouble when he should be trusting the quality of his pitches. For example, in this start, there was no need to throw the 4-seamer in the strike zone more than 70% of the time. He was facing a weak Twins offense that is absolutely able to be embarrassed by the quality pitcher he is.

It’s also very likely that it is leading to a higher hard contact rate. One of Kirby’s struggles in his 2023 campaign has been his 30.4% hard contact rate, ranking him 155th in the majors. The fact is, throwing pitches outside of the zone less frequently allows batters to make better contact with the ball. If he slightly lowered his zone% we would likely also see a rise in his strikeout rate. By throwing the right pitches outside of the zone more frequently, his chase rate will likely increase, leading to more strikeouts.

Unsurprisingly, Kirby should continue to be classified as a hold in all fantasy formats.

Aaron Civale (8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 93 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Aaron Civale has somehow done it again. This marks the second start in the last three weeks against the Royals in which he’s gone seven or more innings. Furthermore, he has now only allowed three or more runs once in his last ten starts dating back to June 2nd. Despite the positives, I remain wary of his success. Tuesday’s start marked the third consecutive start in which his velocity was down across the board:

  • Cutter: 2.2 mph decrease
  • Curveball: 1.5 mph decrease
  • 4-Seam Fastball: 2.3 mph decrease
  • Splitter: 1.7 mph decrease
  • Sinker: 1.3 mph decrease

Not only is his velocity down, but it was way down. I would be shocked if we don’t see Civale, at the very least, skip one of his next scheduled starts as a result of fatigue or injury.

While he managed to work five strikeouts in his eight innings of work, the Guardians righty only earned eight swinging strikes. Only two of these swinging strikes came on the Cutter that he threw 47% of the time. While whiffs are not the sole determinant of pitching success, Civale will find it hard to pitch deep into games if he only manages one swinging strike per inning. Civale also didn’t see an elite level of success coming from limiting hard contact. He surrendered eight hard-hit balls in this outing and an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph.

Fantasy Analysis

For the reasons listed in the report, I would be looking to sell Civale as soon as possible. His success largely cannot be backed up by the metrics and likely partially came as a result of facing the poor Royals offense. Fortunately, his next start looks to be against another unsuccessful offense in the Chicago White Sox. Furthermore, despite his successes, his substantial dip in velocity should be extremely concerning. As a pitcher that has a fairly extensive recent injury history, I’d be surprised if he continued to remain healthy. Ultimately, you should be fielding offers for Civale while you can still get something in return.

Julio Urias (6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 104 Pitches)

Pitching Report

While the overall stat line isn’t gorgeous, there’s a lot to like about Julio Urias’ Tuesday start against the Jays. First, it’s important to clarify that 2/3 of the damage came on a decently located slurve that Bo Bichette crushed for a two-run shot. The other surrendered run came after a 74.6 mph double by Whitt Merrifield. These two events muddy the stat line. On the positive side, Urias managed to induce 16 whiffs with an overall 36% CSW. The Dodgers ace managed to locate the strike zone 63% of the time, far exceeding his seasonal average of 48.6%. While it may have been the culprit for Bichette’s two-run homer, the slurve was excellent tonight. It earned six whiffs on 16 swings and possessed a phenomenal 50% CSW. Finally, Urias masterfully limited hard contact in this start with his average exit velocity only reaching 86.6 mph.

Fantasy Analysis

After his last horrendous outing against the Orioles, I mentioned in my July 19th report that there might be an opportunity to buy low, given the up-and-down season. My message after this outing remains the same. Not only should we trust Urias’ career numbers, but we also have positives to pick from this start. If the manager in your league who owns Urias simply looks at his stat line, he may continue to be discouraged with his ace. By taking a closer look, it’s clear to see that this start appeared worse than it actually was. The whiffs, called strikes, and low average exit velocity against the powerful Blue Jays offense are encouraging signs that the Dodgers ace is beginning to feel like himself again. As long as Urias can continue to limit hard contact the way he has during his career, success shall follow.

Main photo credits:

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

George Kirby, Aaron Civale, Julio Urias, Bo Bichette

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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