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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 22nd & 23rd

Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for the weekend of July 22nd and 23rd, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. Each day, we document intriguing patterns and metrics, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix that presented themselves throughout the previous day. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 22nd & 23rd

Jesus Luzardo (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, 115 Pitches)

Pitching Report

There is no other phrase to describe Jesus Luzardo’s outing against the Colorado Rockies, other than “utter dominance”. Skip Schumaker and the Marlins staff gave Luzardo a long pitch count leash in this start and definitely did not regret it. The Venezuelan international notched an earth-shattering 26 whiffs and 13 punchouts in Sunday’s start. While Luzardo had each pitch in his mix working to maximum potential, his 70-grade slider proved to be lethal. The pitch generated absurd numbers including 13 whiffs and a 47% CSW on 34 pitches. His 4-seamer was a great set-up pitch and generated three whiffs in its own right as it generated a 32% CSW on 41 pitches. Finally, his changeup did not disappoint. While the pitch has averaged a well above-average 30% CSW on the year, the pitch was even more effective on Sunday. It managed to amass nine swinging strikes, a 53% whiff rate, and a 40% CSW.

Fantasy Analysis

There can be no more ignorance of the fact that Jesus Luzardo is a star and one of the most electrifying starting pitchers in the major leagues. My personal viewpoint on the Marlins lefty is extremely high. I truly believe that there is an argument to be made that Luzardo is deserving of a spot in baseball’s top-15 starting pitcher rankings. He ranks in the top 20 pitchers for strikeout percentage, CSW%, and swinging strike percentage. I find Luzardo to be a lower-risk Joe Ryan. While he might have a slightly lower strikeout rate and a slightly higher walk percentage, he has a lower hard contact percentage and a far superior ground ball percentage. Given the choice between the two, I pick Luzardo.

With all of this being said, the window for purchasing Luzardo has passed… for now. Given that six of his last seven starts have been quality starts, each with eight strikeouts or more, his value is simply too high to justify the purchase. It is inevitable that he will have another poor outing and if the manager who has him in your league grows wary of his ability, take your shot.

Tanner Bibee (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 102 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Tanner Bibee arguably had the most dominant start of his young Major League career on Saturday against the Phillies. In what turned out to be a pitcher’s duel against ace Zack Wheeler, Bibee prevailed and threw seven scoreless innings. The Guardians rookie had all four pitches in his mix locked in during the start. His 4-seamer worked six whiffs, a 40% swinging strike rate, and a superb 40% CSW. Interestingly enough, Bibee only threw his fastball in the strike zone 37% of the time. The pitch’s success comes from his ability to locate the pitch perfectly just above the zone, essentially forcing the batter to swing to escape called strikes. His slider was also excellent as it amassed eight whiffs and a 33% CSW. Bibee’s other two secondary pitches, the changeup, and curveball, picked up a combined eight whiffs on just 30 pitches.

Aside from the phenomenal 22 whiffs in this outing, Bibee also masterfully limited hard contact. He was able to limit his seasonal average exit velocity of approximately 89 mph to just over 84 mph on Saturday.

Fantasy Analysis

This start marks Bibee’s sixth consecutive appearance of three earned runs or fewer. To state the obvious, there is an obvious sell-high opportunity here. The rookie’s inability to limit his pitch count and work deep into outings certainly limits his fantasy potential in 2023.  Bibee will very likely not be collecting an abundance of seven shutout inning starts during the second half of his campaign. Having said all of that, I would like to pose opposition to such claims.

Unless your pitching staff is unusually deep, you have likely sustained some substantial injuries and may also face some inning uncertainty in the back half of this season. Cleveland’s pitching staff has faced a similar fate losing many of their key starters heading into the season. As a result, Bibee will have ample playing time and pitched enough innings last year that his 2023 innings should not be of any worry. Furthermore, the Guardian’s management is not afraid to let him throw a substantial amount of pitches in each start as he has thrown 95 or more pitches in nine out of 15 starts. While his current 3.04 ERA may not be fully sustainable, he sports an 18th-best expected ERA of 3.30. Additionally, in his last five outings, he has limited opposing offenses to average exit velocities below 90 mph.

Overall, while there are plenty of unknowns with all rookie pitchers, Bibee’s excellent command and team context leaves me optimistic.

Cristian Javier (5 2/3 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 5 K, 97 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Cristian Javier was incredibly wild against the incredibly poor Oakland Athletics Saturday evening. Sadly, you’ll have to go back to Javier’s June 15th start against the Nationals to find a more dominant outing for Javier. One positive to take away from this start was that his 4-seamer was able to earn nine swinging strikes on 28 swings.

Although, aside from some fastball whiffs, there really isn’t too much to be proud of in this outing for the Astros “ace”. Despite being thrown 29 times, his slider was only swung on five times as it was thrown outside of the strike zone 69% of the time. While he may have been able to coax batters to swing at his slider when it was thrown outside of the zone in 2022, Athletics batters only swung at the pitch 5% of the time when it was out of the zone. In the start as a whole, Javier only threw the ball in the strike zone 39% of the time. Once again, while he may have been able to get away with slightly lower zone% than average last year as a result of his mystifying fastball, it has not been nearly as effective in 2023.

Another point to consider was that he was going against the Oakland Athletics. As a team, they’ve averaged a 38% out-of-zone swing percentage this year. This number was cut in half to 19% against Javier. Furthermore, his five strikeouts in this outing are less impressive upon realizing Oakland strikes out the fourth most per game.

Fantasy Analysis

I really do not know if Javier will get back to 2022 form, or even early 2023 form, at all this season. There is something wrong and whatever it is does not appear to be abundantly clear. What is clear, however, is that he has been extremely poor this year. While I normally like to find at least a few promising patterns for each pitcher, there is not anything worth our time with Javier as of now.  If you’ve held on to him, I think the only thing to do is to keep holding out. At this point, his return is likely close to nothing across most fantasy leagues. Play it by ear but if you get an even somewhat fair offer, you should seriously consider it. I remain pessimistic about Javier in 2o23.

It is not out of the question that the Astros call for a phantom IL trip for Javier. With the Astros vying for another deep playoff push, Javier’s current state serves no playoff value whatsoever. As painful as it would be for fantasy managers, it would likely be beneficial for the team and pitcher. In my rankings, Javier would likely barely even crack the top 50 current starting pitchers.

Main photo credits:

Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Jesus Luzardo, Joe Ryan, Tanner Bibee, Zack Wheeler, Cristian Javier

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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