It took the Atlanta Braves coming from behind late to keep our heads above water yesterday. Today, we look to find some less sweaty plays to make. Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 21st.
Baseball Bets for July 21st
The Headliner: Orioles @ Rays
The Baltimore Orioles look to jump out to a quick 2-0 lead in their four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. In doing so, the Orioles will send Kyle Bradish to the mound. Through 17 starts this season, Bradish has a 3.05 ERA across 91 1/3 innings with 87 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 1.87 ERA across 43 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and a 0.88 WHIP. In nine road starts, Bradish carries a 3.83 ERA across 42 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.37 WHIP. This will be Bradish’s second start this season at Tropicana Field. In his first, he allowed two runs (both earned) on four hits, two walks, one hit batter and struck out eight.
The Rays will counter with Zach Eflin. Through 18 starts, Eflin has a 3.59 ERA across 105 1/3 innings with 105 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.66 ERA across 38 2/3 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. Eflin has performed much better at home. In 10 home starts, he sports a 2.34 ERA across 61 2/3 innings with 64 strikeouts and a 0.84 WHIP. This will be Eflin’s second start this season against the Orioles. His first came at Camden Yards, where he allowed four runs (all earned) on seven hits, one walk, and struck out four. The Rays have been scuffling of late, only going 2-5 since the All-Star break and falling to second in the American League East. Look for them to even this series today and get back in the win column.
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The Play: Rays ML (-158) – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: First Five Total Under Five (-114) – 0.5U
Shipping Up to Boston: Mets @ Red Sox
The New York Mets have been exactly average since the All-Star break by going 3-3, and look to decide this weekend whether they will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. They will be sending Kodai Senga to the mound against the Boston Red Sox. In 17 starts, Senga has a 3.20 ERA across 95 2/3 innings with 122 strikeouts and a 1.26 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 2.88 ERA across 40 2/3 innings with 52 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Senga has not performed as well on the road. In eight road starts, he sports a 3.97 ERA across 45 1/3 innings with 56 strikeouts and a 1.43 WHIP. Allowing runners at a rate that high is not conducive to success when playing at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford. In 18 games this season (10 starts), Kutter has a 3.74 ERA across 67 1/3 innings with 67 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he carries a 4.01 ERA across 33 2/3 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Kutter has been abysmal at home this season. In eight home appearances (four starts), he sports a 5.60 ERA across 27 1/3 innings with 25 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. As a starter this season, Kutter has a 4.73 ERA across 45 2/3 innings compared to his ERA as a reliever of 1.66 across 21 2/3 innings. Despite Senga’s road struggles, Kutter is not… cut… out to be a starter, especially one at Fenway Park.
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The Play: Mets ML (-100) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105) – 0.5U
The Rookie: Phillies @ Guardians
The Philadelphia Phillies look to cleanse their pallet after dropping two of three to the Milwaukee Brewers with a weekend series against the Cleveland Guardians. On the mound for the Phillies will be lefty Ranger Suarez. Through 12 starts this season, Suarez has a 3.84 ERA across 68 innings with 62 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 2.91 ERA across 43 1/3 innings with 42 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP. Suarez has performed better on the road. In six road starts, he sports a 2.39 ERA across 37 2/3 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP. Suarez will need the defense to step up in today’s matchup, as the Guardians strike out less than any other team in baseball.
The Guardians will counter with rookie Gavin Williams. Through five starts, Williams has a 3.94 ERA across 29 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. Over his last three, he carries a 4.76 ERA across 17 innings with 13 strikeouts and a 1.53 WHIP. Williams has not performed well at home in his young career. Across three home starts, he sports a 5.60 ERA in 17 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts and a 1.42 WHIP. The Phillies have one of the best records in baseball since the start of June. Look for them to add to that success today.
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The Play: Phillies ML (-120) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI (+145) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin, Kodai Senga, Kutter Crawford, Ranger Suarez, Gavin Williams, Bryce Harper
