These profiles focus on fantasy baseball trades and fades, shifting gears from the waiver wire to trade targets. Here are some players whose ownership crests above the 50% mark and could be trade chips for the fantasy playoff run.
Fantasy Baseball Trades and Fades Targets
Trade Target #1: Bryce Miller
Seattle Mariners rookie starting pitcher Bryce Miller possesses a lethal weapon with a unique caliber. Velocity hounds might not be impressed by his four-seamer, which averages a decent 95 mph. But opposing hitters certainly have to be impressed.
At a deployment rate of 67%, the four-seamer is by far his primary pitch. Even when hitters know it’s coming, they have a hard time barreling it up. Hitters have a .205 Batting Average Against the four-seamer, which generates a very good 27% Whiff.
The most impressive metric to determine how special Miller’s four-seamer is may be found in the Spin Rate of the pitch. The four-seamer ranks in the 98 percentile of Spin Rate – spinning at an obscene 2609 revolutions per minute. That’s kind of equivalent to what a lot of guys’ sliders spin at.
Taking into account Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model, Bryce Miller is the number eight starter in baseball. Flexing an overall 119+ Stuff+, he places just behind Corbin Burnes on Fangraphs’ leaderboard.
Stuff+ also reveals Miller doesn’t have to be a one-pitch pitcher, should he ever choose to expand the percentages of his actually large pitching repertoire. Statcast differentiates a slider from a sweeper, on which the latter gets a sick 6.3-inch vertical break. Stuff+ seems to combine the two spinners and rates the slider at an exceptional 115+, while also favoring his curve at 112+.
With plus control and command, Miller has all the makings of a front-end-of-the-rotation starter. Coming out of the All-Star break, he only posted three strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers’ pedestrian offense. Since Miller did toss five shutout innings, his owner might be fading Miller and think he or she’s selling high. Let them believe that. And grab Miller as a premium fades and trades target for major upside down the stretch.
Trade Target #2: Jack Suwinski
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski represents a prime acquisition target for those who have faith in Statcast’s expected stat indicators. A stat like wOBA measures the quality of how a player gets on base in determining that player’s overall offensive contribution.
Suwinski sits in the top 35 in his current wOBA output and is 27th overall in xwOBA. He’s top 35 in slugging percentage at .496 and ranks 26th in xSLG at .522.
For those who simply scout batting average, Suwinski appears pretty much a lame duck. And it’s definitely going to be tough to bat better than his current .220 line with a strikeout percentage at or above 30%.
But for those who believe a good process will eventually lead to better results, Suwinski stands at the top of the charts for these indicators. With a 19% Outside Swing, which puts him in the 100 percentile, he is literally one of the elite players in the game at not chasing balls outside of the strike zone.
His SwStr% also hovers at a very manageable 10.6%. Sporting an exceptional 15% walk rate, Suwinski seems to boast one of the better batting eyes in the league. However, this is also a classic case of a hitter allowing good pitches to beat him on called strikes. His 21.5% Called Strike mark tells the tale on this, as this is good for eighth in the league.
Suwinski hits the ball hard with a Hard Hit percentage in the 90th percentile and an exceptional Barrel percentage in the 97th percentile. With Sprint Speeds also indicating the player can run, his five-tool ability makes Suwinski incredibly valuable in almost all fantasy formats.
Suwinski’s banked 19 homers to go along with seven steals, so the skills have already translated. Anyone willing to gamble on Suwinski’s low batting average rising, while power and speed sustain, could end up with a fantasy steal heading into playoffs.
Fade Target: Christopher Morel
For the final trades and fades profile, a player that managers might consider trading for Bryce Miller would be the talented but flawed Chicago Cubs’ Christopher Morel. His three games coming out of the All-Star break suggest in their microcosm the eventuality that might manifest with Morel.
In that first game, he went 3-4 and stole only his second base of the year. His out, of course, came via strikeout. He then went 2-8 with four strikeouts over the next two games.
In his sophomore season with the Cubs, Morel came into 2023 like a wrecking ball, walloping homers to all fields with his lightning-quick bat speed.
The main issue lies in his wildly all-or-nothing swinging ways when employing that bat speed. His below-average strikeout rate seems pretty stable above 30%, especially considering his miserable 66% contact rate.
It’s certainly not going to get any better with a Zone Contact at 75%, while Statcast measures him at a basement-dwelling two percentile in Whiff%. Basically, Morel frequently swings at low-quality pitches. That approach won’t sustain a batting average in the .270s, where Morel currently sits.
Morel essentially poses the anti-Suwinski, as his current wOBA profiles him in the top eight percent. His xwOBA tells a different story at .332, which mires Morel in the 54th percentile range of overall offensive quality.
The stolen bases also haven’t been there and promise to remain absent, if Morel can only manage to get on base at a .329 OBP. Morel’s raw talent and multi-position eligibility give him a shiny veneer to dangle in a trade for a player who might flash better process, and eventually outperform Morel for the 2023 season.
Main photo credits:
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Bryce Miller, Corbin Burnes, Jack Suwinski, Christopher Morel
