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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 17th

fantasy baseball July 17th

Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for July 17th, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. Each day, we document intriguing patterns and metrics, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix that presented themselves throughout the previous day. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy pitching analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 17th

Emmet Sheehan (5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 94 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Emmet Sheehan’s fifth career start against the Orioles did not go according to plan. By the end of the second inning, Sheehan had already surrendered three earned runs, four hits, and two walks. His fastball, which he threw 63% of the time, only managed to earn one whiff on 27 swings. A fastball possessing a whiff rate of four percent and a CSW of 15% is just simply not good enough.  While the 4-seamer was poor tonight, the changeup was quite good. The pitch managed to accumulate two whiffs on eight swings and earned a 30% CSW. Additionally, Sheehan managed to keep the average exit velocity on the pitch down at 61.3 mph.

It appears that Sheehan came into this start focusing on throwing his secondary pitches for strikes more often as both pitches had massive Zone% increases. Sheehan threw the changeup in the zone 52% of the time tonight compared to his season average of 26.8% of the time. Furthermore, his slider possessed a Zone% of 42% in this start which dwarfs his season average of 28%. As Sheehan is able to find the zone more with his secondary pitches, it begins to take the pressure off of his fastball. While none of Sheehan’s pitches were dominant tonight, he was able to keep average exit velocity to 86.4 mph.

Fantasy Analysis

I find Emmet Sheehan’s lack of a dominant pitch concerning in the fantasy setting. According to Pitcher List, prior to Monday’s start, Sheehan’s overall CSW% ranked a pitiful 192nd in the majors. In order to get away with throwing his fastball more than 60% of the time, he is going to have to seriously develop one, or both, of his secondary pitches. His sub-20% strikeout rate and near 10% walk rate are a recipe for disaster against at least any of the playoff-caliber major league teams. I’d be inclined to give the rookie a couple more starts to see how he adjusts and if he’s willing to change up the pitch mix. Without making a change to his pitch mix, opposing offenses will continue to hunt and prepare for his not-yet-elite fastball that occasionally finds itself middle-middle in the zone.

Grayson Rodriguez (5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 91 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Grayson Rodriguez was recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to start the series opener against the Dodgers at Camden Yards. The 23-year-old right-hander, who began the season as one of the top prospects in baseball per MLB Pipeline, had his 11th career big league start. Rodriguez, who had posted a 7.35 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP over his first 10 starts for Baltimore, was sent down to Triple-A to work on his command. He had 56 strikeouts and 21 walks in 45 1/3 innings, but he went more than five frames only once and never completed six. In Monday evening’s start against the Dodgers, we saw Rodriguez’s velocity jump up significantly on 3/5 pitches:

  • 4-Seam Fastball: 1.2 mph increase
  • Changeup: 1.2 mph increase
  • Slider: 2.4 mph increase (lost 6 inches of vertical break)

Despite the uptick in velocity, Rodriguez, once again, found difficulty at the Major League level. On the positive side, he was able to keep his 4-seamer in the strike zone 56% of the time, up from his average of 48%. However, he continues to struggle with surrendering hard contact. His fastball allowed an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph while his changeup gave up an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph. To put those numbers in perspective, they both rank in the bottom 20% of major league pitchers in the 2023 season.

Fantasy Analysis

Rodriguez’s fantasy value is a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. On one hand, he’s a top prospect with a high ceiling, but on the other, he’s struggled with command and consistency at the Major League level. It’s worth noting that he’s shown significant improvement at Triple-A, but it remains to be seen if he can translate that success to the big leagues. Fantasy owners should monitor his progress closely and consider him a high-risk, high-reward option. Ultimately, I don’t think I will be looking to buy low on Rodriguez. While it’s extremely possible that he’ll be able to kick his performance to a new level, we haven’t seen enough at the Major League level to justify buying.

Griffin Canning (5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K, 120 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Griffin Canning was absolutely electric against the Yankees tonight. Not only did Canning manage to strike out 12 Yankees and generate 20 swinging strikes on the night, but he also threw a mind-blowing 120 pitches! The Angels clearly trust their 27-year-old right-handed pitcher as he’s putting together a respectable 2023 campaign. In Monday’s start, his fastball was virtually unhittable, generating 11 whiffs on 20 swings with an extraordinary 45% CSW. Canning also had his slider on point tonight, amassing nine whiffs and an elite 38% CSW on the pitch. Despite often dominating Yankees bats, it would not be a true pitching report without mentioning the potential areas for concern. Canning did surrender an average exit velocity of 93.5 mph in this start. Additionally, the New York offense was able to foul off 26 pitches, limiting Canning’s ability to pitch deeper into the contest.

Fantasy Analysis

Since June 1st, Canning has made seven starts and has put together a 4.12 ERA and an 8.49 K/9. In the fantasy pitching context, Canning finds himself in a frustrating category. While in most formats he isn’t quite good enough to be considered a keeper, he also finds himself better than most available streamers. Taking the lackluster performances of the Angels into account, it’s likely best for fantasy managers to play Canning’s matchups going forward.

Aroldis Chapman (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 14 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Dominance in every sense of the word. After earning his first save with the Rangers on July 15th, Aroldis Chapman struck out the side for his first win in a Texas uniform. While throwing the 4-seamer 54% of the time heading into Monday’s ninth-inning appearance, Chapman eased off on the pitch, throwing all four of his pitches three to four times in the 14-pitch outing. On those four pitches, Chapman worked an absurd 67% whiff rate. While short, there are a couple of metrics worth pointing out from the start. First, the spin rate on his splitter was down 251 RPM, losing three inches of vertical break and gaining two inches of horizontal break. There is likely nothing in that down-tick but it’s something to keep an eye out for in his next appearance. Finally, Chapman’s velocity was up across the board:

  • Sinker: 1.4 mph increase (averaged 102.5 mph!)
  • Slider: 1.6 mph increase
  • Splitter: 0.6 mph increase
  • 4-Seamer: 0.1 mph increase

Fantasy Analysis

Chapman has taken on his co-closer role with his new club like his life depends on it. If you’ve been hesitating to pull the trigger on adding the flamethrower, now is your sign to go ahead. As the Rangers look to maintain their divisional lead over the Astros through the second half of the season, Chapman will no doubt earn a plethora of save (and win) opportunities.

Main photo credits:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Emmet Sheehan, Grayson Rodriguez, Griffin Canning, Aroldis Chapman

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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