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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 14th

pitcher report July 14th

Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for July 14th, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. Each day, we document intriguing patterns and metrics, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix that presented themselves throughout the previous day. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 14th

Yu Darvish (6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 SO, 94 Pitches)

Yu Darvish showcased his dominance in his Friday start in Philadelphia, pulling eight pitches out of his bag of tricks. While he utilized a variety of different pitches, a rare knuckle curve appearance stole the show. The righty threw the pitch 18 times (19% of pitches), working a 44% CSW (called-strike + whiff) and a 56% whiff rate. Additionally, his sinker and sweeper combined for an elite 47% CSW. His slider, thrown 31 times (33% of the time), was far less dominant, only managing to earn one whiff with a poor 19% CSW. To add to his slider’s difficulties, Phillies batters only swung 12% of the time when it was outside of the strike zone. In short, he wasn’t fooling anybody with it.

His dominance in spite of a poor primary pitch highlights one of the Japanese internationals’ most prized qualities: variety. Darvish’s ability to completely alter his pitch mix on a start-to-start basis allows him to increase, or decrease, his usage of each of his pitches depending on pitch performance, control, or opposing hitters. While the start was largely positive, it is important to note that Darvish was hit quite hard by the Phillies. Despite only allowing the lone run, Darvish surrendered 5 hits with an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph. Hopefully, Darvish can limit his up-and-down volatility and reach his “ace” potential in the second half of the season.

Julio Urias (6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 SO, 85 pitches)

After some bumps along the road, Julio Urias has put together his first scoreless start of his 2023 campaign. In his previous two starts since coming back from the IL, Urias used his 4-seamer 41% of the time. In this start, Julio increased his usage to 51%, generating an unimpressive 26% CSW and only 3 whiffs. While his fastball wasn’t outstanding, it served as an excellent setup pitch for his wicked secondaries. His slurve earned a whopping 65% CSW, while his changeup worked a solid 36% CSW and 80% whiff rate.

Despite the excellent stat line, I think now might actually be a good time to consider selling high. Mets batters were likely unlucky against the Dodgers’ star pitcher as they hit the ball at a respectable average exit velocity of 90 mph and Urias didn’t generate a single ground ball. Urias’ xFIP of 4.35 was also miles higher than his FIP of 1.94 in this start. With his season so far, I’m not sure how much faith I have in the Mexican international to get back to his former ace status.

Corbin Burnes (6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO, 102 Pitches)

Ladies and gentlemen, a Corbin Burnes gem. If the Brewers are serious about holding down the top position in the NL Central, they’re going to need more of this from Burnes. Milwaukee’s ace seems to be figuring things out. Since June 1st, Burnes holds a 3.49 ERA, a 10.24 K/9, and six quality starts from eight total starts. In this start against the Reds, Burnes possessed an elite combo of 21 whiffs and a 38% CSW. His curveball was stellar tonight against the Reds as it generated nine whiffs and a 47% CSW. In addition to racking up double-digit strikeouts, Burnes’ average exit velocity in this start sat at an amazingly low 79.6 mph. It was truly a dominant outing in every sense of the word.

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Really the only worrying aspect of this start was an injury scare in the fifth inning. After throwing a pitch, Burnes would take a knee behind the mound where trainers rushed onto the field to assist him. Luckily, after receiving water and a cool towel over his head, Burnes would be able to finish the rest of the fifth and the sixth inning. It appears as though heat exhaustion was the culprit for the scare. Overall, Burnes’ recent improvements, namely a near +2 in K/9 since June 1st, should give us reason to believe that he’s in store for a substantial second-half bounceback.

Michael Kopech (2/3 IP, 1 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 SO, 38 Pitches)

Yikes… it doesn’t get much worse than this. Michael Kopech had zero control in his start against the Braves and was pulled in the first inning after surrendering four walks, an HBP, a wild pitch, and a grand slam. In addition to his lack of control, Kopech’s velocity was down across the board from his season averages:

Sadly, it’s essentially impossible to argue starting Kopech in any fantasy format at this time. In his last four starts, he has allowed a minimum of three walks, a maximum of five strikeouts, and has only put together 13 innings. At least it makes for good content in these pitching reports. While he occasionally showcases his strikeout potential the risk of a colossal blowup is simply too great to start (or even roster for that matter) the current version of Michael Kopech.

Jose Berrios (5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 90 Pitches)

Solid. Nothing too outstanding to see here from Jose Berrios as he surrendered seven hits in his start against the Diamondbacks but managed to limit the damage to one run. Berrios’ 4-seamer was on fire, hitting the zone 68% of the time and achieving a stellar 45% CSW. Despite the good fastball, Berrios only induced nine whiffs and was unable to do much with his sinker. The sinker didn’t earn a single whiff on 14 swings with a horrible 9% CSW. Despite the poor results, Berrios still threw the pitch 24% of the time in this start.

 

Interestingly, Berrios’ velocity was up across the board tonight from his season averages:

  • Slurve: 1.5 mph increase
  • Sinker: 1.2 mph increase
  • 4-Seam: 0.6 mph increase
  • Changeup: 1.7 mph increase

While Berrios was not quite dominant in this start, he improves to a Blue Jays-best 2.81 ERA since June 1st.

Cristopher Sanchez (5.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 79 Pitches)

While the final stat line isn’t pretty, there were some positive takeaways for Cristopher Sanchez in his start against the Padres. On the positive side, excluding the third inning, Sanchez limited the Padres’ star-studded lineup to one hit while walking none. Furthermore, Sanchez’s sinker was working overtime for the Phillies. He threw the pitch 49 times (62% of the time) during this outing and generated 19 called strikes and an excellent 47% CSW. Padres batters were hesitant to swing at the pitch, swinging only 39% of the time it hit the zone.

However, Sanchez’s changeup proved to be a weakness in this outing. The pitch was thrown 20 times (25% of the time) in this outing and only earned a 20% CSW. Both of the home runs he surrendered, accounting for all of the damage, were the result of poorly located changeups. Additionally, Padres batters only swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 17% of the time in this start. The minimal number of swings generated resulted in a measly 7 whiffs on the night. There are enough positives in Sanchez’s game to make him a pitcher to keep an eye out for in deeper fantasy leagues. However, none of his pitches are eye-popping and should only currently be rostered on a matchup-to-matchup basis.

Luis Castillo (5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 91 Pitches)

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Against a Tigers team that’s posted a .631 OPS against right-handed pitching since June 1st, Castillo’s 4-seamer was worse than it’s been all year. The fastball, which he threw 40% of the time, only managed to achieve an 11% CSW and two whiffs on 21 swings. While the fastball wasn’t fooling the Tiger’s batters, the changeup was the culprit for both home runs given up in the start. When the Mariners‘ ace fails to exceed a 20% CSW on the 4-seam this season his ERA balloons to 6.04. There should not be any long-term concern as a result of this minor bump in the road as Castillo has been able to fix his fastball after every poor start. If for whatever reason a member of your league is trying to sell Castillo following this start, you better jump on the opportunity.

Main photo credits:

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Yu Darvish, Julio Urias, Corbin Burnes, Michael Kopech, Jose Berrios, Cristopher Sanchez, Luis Castillo

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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