2023 has been the type of season that a team on the brink of contention should have. The Pittsburgh Pirates overachieved for the first month and have then played streaky since. While they’ve lost games at a high rate since April, their winning stretches in that time came in bunches. A six-game winning streak here. Another six wins in eight games there. It has been a whirlwind but the pieces are beginning to fall into place for Pittsburgh to contend in 2024 and beyond. Here are some Pirates predictions for the second half of the season.
Pirates Predictions For Second Half of Season
Keller Finishes Top Five in NL Cy Young Vote
This one might be a bit ambitious but what’s the point of predicting boring things, right? Mitch Keller is having the best season of his young career. After struggling to gain any traction in his early years, the last 18 months have been more of what people came to expect from Keller when he was once considered one of the better pitching prospects in baseball.
The 27-year old is playing in his first all-star game this week. He improved his season-ERA to 3.31 after seven shutout innings on Saturday afternoon. Keller is allowing almost full walk less per nine innings this season than last. His 129 strikeouts are already just nine away from a career-high. Keller finally coming into his own is a massive development for the Pirates’ future.
Pittsburgh can’t be a player in free agency for ace-type pitchers. They must develop them. Keller is coming into his own and the Pirates added Paul Skenes in the draft this past weekend. They’re setting themselves up nicely.
Keller spent most of the early season hanging around the Cy Young conversation. Zac Gallen and Clayton Kershaw are the runaway favorites at the moment for NL Cy Young. However, the race behind them is relatively open. Spencer Strider is probably in third followed by a handful of other deserving pitchers. Keller is lumped in with that group.
Keller’s prospects are hindered by the Pirates’ play this season. However, his dominance should not be overshadowed. If he can finish with an ERA near three, there is no reason that he can’t garner enough attention to get within ear shot of the top five.
Hedges Becomes Late Season DFA Candidate
The Pirates are a team that has suffered for quite some time. The only positive out of that is that the farm system should be chalk-full of young prospects that can make a major league impact. One of the strengths of the Pirates’ system is behind the dish.
Endy Rodriguez is nearing his MLB debut. Henry Davis is in the majors but currently is playing in right field or serving as the designated hitter on most nights. He was originally drafted out of Louisville as a catcher. Jason Delay, the Pirates’ current backup, is a former fourth-round pick. He won’t wow you in any particular facet of the game but he’s as sound a backup as there might be in the league right now. Then…there’s Austin Hedges.
The upside to Hedges coming into the season was that he is good with a pitching staff. His sound defensive game played a role in the Pirates signing him. The drawback is his .188 career batting average. He provides next to nothing on the offensive side of the ball. His OPS this season is .462 which is putrid. If he was at least hitting for some slug, the batting average would be a moot point.
If the Pirates were in contention, an argument could’ve been made that you keep him to work with the pitching staff. However, they are no longer in that conversation. Cutting ties with Hedges and letting Rodriguez and Delay receive the bulk of the work is the smart play. This would even allow for Davis to get behind the plate on occasion.
It’s unclear on how the Pirates plan to handle Davis going into next season and beyond. Regardless, Hedges’ services aren’t necessarily going to be needed. He is on a one-year deal so the contract won’t weigh much come that point of the season.
Suwinski Reaches 35+ Home Runs
As things stand coming out of the all-star break, Jack Suwinski has 19 home runs. He is hitting much better at the plate than in previous seasons. The 19 home runs are by far the highest total on the team. Andrew McCutchen is second on the team with 10. Had Oneil Cruz been healthy, it’s likely him and Suwinski would be battling for the team lead.
The 24-year old is blossoming into a legit everyday player for Pittsburgh. Coming into the seaosn, the Pirates needed more than just the slug out of Suwinski for this to happen. His strikeout rate is actually up 2% this season but he is walking significantly more than last year. Being more selective at the plate has lead to more home runs for the left-handed slugger as well.
Pittsburgh has only had seven 35-home run seasons in its history. Josh Bell is the last Pirate to do so back in 2019 with 37 long balls. Suwinski is currently on pace to get at least 30 and, with good health, could challenge to become the eighth 35-home run season in Bucco history.
Suwinski is hitting left-handers better this season than last season. This is helping his case to become more of an everyday guy and less of a platoon/matchup player. The more chances he gets, the more likely that he can get to 35 for the year. Being a lefty and playing at PNC Park certainly helps as he’s got the Clemente Wall in right field.
In a few months, we’ll come back and visit these predictions and laugh at how hilariously wrong they turned out to be. Nothing wrong with having some Pirates second half predictions to root for over the final three months of the season, right?
Photo Credit- Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned- Cy Young, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Zac Gallen, Clayton Kershaw, Spencer Strider, Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Jason Delay, Austin Hedges, Jack Suwinski, Andrew McCutchen, Oneil Cruz, Josh Bell
