The Chicago Cubs completely restructured their roster entering the 2023 season, signing several veteran players to short-term deals to raise the floor of the team and hopefully churn out a more competitive roster. Some of these deals have brought little to no return on investment, including Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer. The short-term contract that has made the largest impact on the Cubs’ success in 2023 is that of Cody Bellinger, who signed a 1-year, $17.5 million contract with a mutual option for 2024 after being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s still only 27 years old, but his career has been an incredible story of early success, devastating injuries, and a resurgence this season that has garnered the attention and joy of fans across the baseball world.
A Promising Start
Bellinger was a superstar the second he made his debut in 2017 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his rookie campaign, the Arizona native put the baseball world on notice, clubbing 39 home runs in just 132 games while playing solid defense at first base for the NL pennant-winning Dodgers. Without much surprise, Bellinger took home the NL Rookie of the Year award by unanimous vote.
Bellinger continued asserting himself as one of the game’s premier sluggers as his career with the Dodgers, taking home the NL MVP in 2019 after batting .305 with 46 home runs and an OPS of 1.035 while also playing elite defense in center field, where he moved following his rookie season. He was solid in the 2020 season, producing one of the most memorable postseason moments of the shortened season when he hit a game-winning home run to clinch the National League pennant over the Atlanta Braves en route to a World Series title.
Cody Bellinger just launched a ball to Queens.
He’s been playing like the Belli we know and love since returning from injury. OPS over the last 2 weeks is over 1.100. pic.twitter.com/OSolDN8oIx
— sky (@GonsolinRBW) July 7, 2023
Long Road to Recovery
It was directly after this home run in the 2020 NLCS where Bellinger’s career took the dramatic turn for the worse. He celebrated his home run with teammate Enrique Hernandez and dislocated his shoulder in the process, requiring him to get surgery after the season’s end. When he returned in 2021, he was nowhere near the same player. In fact, he was one of the worst hitters in all of baseball, posting a .542 OPS with only ten home runs in 95 games.
He was a little better in 2022, but still was a below average hitter, amounting to only 1.2 wins above replacement thanks to his still-stellar defense. The Dodgers, seemingly not seeing any hope of Bellinger returning to his old form, opted to non-tender the final year of his contract, sending him into free agency.
Newfound Success on the Northside
Bellinger looked like he was going to post a similar season to his 2021 and 2022 campaigns after the first series of this season. He failed to record a single hit in his first three games with two walks and three strikeouts. Over the rest of April, however, he began to look like the Bellinger of old again, batting .301 with an OPS over 1.000 and hitting seven home runs.
He scuffled in May and June while also dealing with a knee contusion that sidelined him for multiple weeks, but has reasserted himself as one of the Cubs’ key contributors on offense and defense, carrying a 13-game hitting streak into July and homering in back-to-back games on July 6 in Milwaukee and on July 7 against the Yankees. Entering the All-Star Break, Bellinger sports a .298 batting average with nine home runs and an OPS of .846.
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What To Do With Bellinger?
The Cubs are currently at a crossroads. They have moved past their fire sale seasons but they haven’t reached their next true competitive window. With his resurgence in Chicago, rumors are circulating about Bellinger being a potential contract extension candidate. That could prove both beneficial and detrimental.
Bellinger has been very good for the Cubs, even if he doesn’t have the power that he had in his first few years in Los Angeles. His success has come from a very different area than they did during his MVP season. He has lost a good bit of his bat speed and cannot turn on a high fastball at the level that he could earlier in his career.
He has made some adjustments to his swing to attempt to counter this loss in bat speed. Bellinger has shortened his swing to generate more contact and fewer whiffs. It has shown great results as his batting average is much higher than it’s been in the past two years. Bellinger’s strikeout rate is considerably lower as it is all the way down to 17.4%. This is 10% lower than it was in his final two years in Los Angeles.
There is something beautiful about Cody Bellinger home runs that I can’t quite describe, you just have to see it and instantly understand pic.twitter.com/6EBz5YjrVK
— Brett Shoopman (@brett_shoop17) July 6, 2023
He has also been able to play both center field and first base in Chicago. These have been two positions of dire need for them over the past few years. The issue, however, is Bellinger’s quality of contact. He may be putting the ball in play more often, but the exit velocity is down to the lowest it’s been in his entire career. This only ranks in the 10th percentile in MLB this year. His batting average on balls in play is much higher that what Statcast expects it to be. He appears to be due for some regression over the rest of the season.
Bellinger A Potential Contract Extension Candidate?
An extension would be beneficial for the Cubs regardless of the batted ball statistics, however. He has been the best center fielder the Cubs have had in years. Bellinger would continue to fill in nicely there until top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready to take over the helm. Following that, Bellinger could move back to first base, where the Cubs have no clear option.
An extension of four or five years for roughly $18 million of average annual value is probably what the Cubs would seek. It all depends on if Bellinger would be willing to take a mid-season contract extension or if he feels more confident in his ability to get more money on the open market.
Photo Credit- Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned- Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Pete Crow-Armstrong
