With only one day left this week, we currently sit at half a unit in the green. The All-Star break begins tomorrow, and all of the games today are day games. Make sure you get your bets in quick! Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 9th.
Baseball Bets for July 9th
The Headliner: Braves @ Rays
This matchup has been our headliner for all three games of the series. But, when you have the two teams with the best records in baseball, how can it not? The Atlanta Braves look for the sweep today and send Bryce Elder to the mound in the process. Through 17 starts this season, Elder has a 2.45 ERA across 102.2 innings with 80 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has an ERA of 3.05 across 44.1 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. In seven road starts, Elder has a 1.62 ERA across 44.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. The defense behind Elder has helped him tremendously thus far as he currently has a FIP of 3.79.
The Tampa Bay Rays will attempt to not be swept at home for the second series in a row. In doing so, they will be sending Zach Eflin to the mound. In 16 starts this season, Eflin has a 3.24 ERA across 97.1 innings with 100 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.32 ERA across 43.1 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP. In nine home starts, Eflin carries a 2.22 ERA across 56.2 innings with 59 strikeouts and a 0.85 WHIP. Much like Eflin’s last start, this should be a pitcher’s duel early. While the Rays are not as good as their record currently indicates, they should still pull this one out in the end.
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The Play: Rays ML (-121) – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: First Five Total Under 4.5 (-115) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus – NRFI (-120) – 0.5U
Last of a Four-Game Series: Mariners @ Astros
The Seattle Mariners look to win this series three games to one today and go into the All-Star break above .500. They will be sending Logan Gilbert to the mound. Through 17 starts this season, Gilbert has a 3.82 ERA across 101.1 innings with 100 strikeouts and a 1.02 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.14 ERA across 41.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. In 10 road starts, Gilbert has a 3.49 ERA across 59.1 innings with 58 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. Gilbert’s defense has hurt him slightly this season as his FIP currently sits at 3.45. He does a good job of limiting hits and walks, which could prove successful for him today as the Houston Astros rank 15th (755) in hits and 21st (285) in walks.
The Astros counter with Brandon Bielak. Through 10 games this season (nine starts), Bielak has a 3.81 ERA across 54.1 innings with 41 strikeouts and a 1.51 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.98 ERA across 40.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.40 WHIP. In five home games (four starts), Bielak has a 2.73 ERA across 26.1 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. While the defense has hurt Gilbert, Bielak has been picked up tremendously by his defense. His FIP currently sits at 5.44, almost two full runs higher than his ERA. The other shoe has to drop at some point, and that point could be today against this Mariners lineup.
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The Play: Mariners ML (-130) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Gilbert Under 1.5 Walks (-191) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus: YRFI (-100) – 0.5U
The Battle for Second Concludes: Phillies @ Marlins
With a chance to win the series on the line, the Philadelphia Phillies will be sending Aaron Nola to the mound. Through 18 starts this season, Nola has a 4.30 ERA across 113 innings with 114 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.86 ERA across 44.1 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. In 11 road starts, Nola has an ERA of 4.90 across 68 innings with 65 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Nola has struggled with the home run this season, giving up the long ball at a 4.0% rate compared to his career rate of 2.8%. The good news for Nola today is that the Miami Marlins rank 23rd in baseball with 84 home runs.
The Marlins will counter with Jesus Luzardo. In 18 starts this season, Luzardo has a 3.32 ERA across 103 innings with 120 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 2.81 ERA across 41.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 0.82 WHIP. In 10 home starts, Luzardo has a 2.39 ERA across 60.1 innings with 72 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. The key to Luzardo’s success this season has been limiting walks. He has only walked batters at a 6.2% rate this season compared to his career rate of 8.3%. This should prove effective for him yet again today as the Phillies rank 25th in walks with 261. Expect a pitcher’s duel in the last of our picks for baseball bets on July 9th.
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The Play: Phillies ML (-100) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus: Jean Segura Over 0.5 Hits (-210) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Bryce Elder, Zach Eflin, Logan Gilbert, Brandon Bielak, Aaron Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Jean Segura
