Yesterday was up and down for our baseball bets. But in the end, we finished the day 3-3 and up 0.26 units. That puts us at 1.08 units in the red for the week, with two days’ worth of games left before the All-Star break. Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 8th.
Baseball Bets for July 8th
The Headliner: Braves @ Rays
For the second day in a row, our headlining play belongs to the game that pits the two teams with the best records in baseball against each other. In today’s matchup, the Atlanta Braves will be sending Spencer Strider to the mound. In 17 starts this season, Strider has a 3.66 ERA across 98.1 innings with 155 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.65 ERA across 40.2 innings with 58 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP. However, over his last three starts, he carries a 1.83 ERA across 19.2 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 1.02 WHIP. Strider has been better at limiting runs on the road this season with a road ERA of 3.35 in eight road starts. His strikeout ability should play today, too, as the Tampa Bay Rays have the 13th most strikeouts on the season with 781, or, 8.58 a game.
The Rays will be sending Taj Bradley to the mound. In 12 starts, Bradley has a 5.27 ERA across 56.1 innings with 76 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 5.91 ERA across 32 innings with 42 strikeouts and a 1.56 WHIP. In five home starts, Bradley has a 5.70 ERA across 23.2 innings with 33 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP. The Braves have a better offense than most of the other teams that Bradley has faced this season. While he does strike batters out at a high rate (30.8%), he also allows hard hits at a high rate (44.4%) as well as home runs (4.1%). This does not bode well for the Rays while facing the team that has the most home runs ever before the All-Star break.
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The Play: Braves ML – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Bradley Over 2.5 Earned Runs – 0.5U
The Battle for Second: Phillies @ Marlins
In what will come down to a battle for second in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Miami Marlins in game two of this weekend series. On the mound for the Phillies will be lefty Ranger Suarez. In 10 starts this season, Suarez has a 3.67 ERA across 56.1 innings with 55 strikeouts and a 1.26 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 2.18 ERA across 45.1 innings with 42 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. In five road starts, Suarez has a 1.97 ERA across 32 innings with 26 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Suarez is a groundball pitcher. He does have the lowest groundball rate of his career (49.7%) so far, but he is still generating ground balls more than twice as often as fly balls (20.5%). The defense will need to be on their toes today with Suarez facing this Marlins team. Their combined launch angle of 10.1 is lower than the League average of 12.8.
The Marlins will counter with a lefty of their own in Braxton Garrett. Through 17 games (16 starts) this season, Garrett has an ERA of 3.61 across 87.1 innings with 98 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 2.52 ERA across 39.1 innings with 51 strikeouts and a 0.81 WHIP. Braxton has been much worse at home this season. In eight home games (seven starts), he has an ERA of 5.27 across 41 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. That does include one blowup start against the Braves, however, in which he allowed 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings. This game, on the mound, is pretty evenly matched. The nod here goes to the home squad ending the Phillies’ 13-game road win streak.
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The Play: Marlins ML – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts – 0.5U
A Matchup Rooted In History: Cubs @ Yankees
After winning for the first time ever at this iteration of Yankee Stadium yesterday, the Chicago Cubs look to make it two in a row against the New York Yankees. On the mound for the Cubs will be veteran lefty Drew Smyly. In 17 starts this season, Smyly has a 4.10 ERA across 90 innings with 76 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Smyly has struggled of late. In his last seven, he holds an ERA of 6.49 across 34.2 innings with 25 strikeouts and a 1.85 WHIP. The majority of that has come from his last two starts in which he combined to allow 10 earned runs on 13 hits, and four walks in 7.1 innings while only striking out seven. Despite one road blowup, Smyly has pitched better on the road. He has a road ERA of 3.08 across nine starts and 49.2 innings with 37 strikeouts and a 1.37 WHIP.
The Yankees counter with perennial Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole. In 18 starts this season, Cole has a 2.79 ERA across 109.2 innings with 118 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has an ERA of 3.21 across 42 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. While Cole does have a better ERA on the road than at home, there is only a difference of .08 points. At home, Cole has an ERA of 2.82 across 11 starts and 67 innings with 77 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP. This season, Cole’s strikeout rate has been down (26.3%) compared to his career numbers (28.9%). That won’t stop him from going over his strikeout total today, however, as the Cubs have the 9th most strikeouts in baseball with 799, or 9.18 a game. An easy choice for the last of our baseball bets on July 8th.
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The Play: Yankees ML – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Spencer Strider, Taj Bradley, Ranger Suarez, Braxton Garrett, Drew Smyly, Gerrit Cole
