Yesterday was an eventful slate of games, to say the least. Blown leads, pitchers having one of the best starts of their season on the road, and a pitcher’s duel that went the opposite way we expected. Today, we take a breath, and we move on. Here are our baseball bets for July 5th.
Baseball Bets for July 5th
The Headliner: Cubs @ Brewers
In a divisional matchup, the Chicago Cubs face the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of their four-game set. On the mound for the Cubs will be lefty Justin Steele. In 15 starts this season, Steele has a 2.43 ERA across 85.1 innings with 76 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.25 ERA across 36 innings with 37 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. This will be Steele’s second start against the Brewers this season. His first came in his first start of the year. In that start, he went six innings allowing no runs on three hits and one walk while striking out eight.
The Brewers will counter with righty Adrian Houser. Through 10 appearances this season (eight starts), Houser has a 3.88 ERA across 46.1 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.51 WHIP. Over his last seven games (five starts), he has a 4.26 ERA across 31.2 innings with 19 strikeouts and a 1.52 WHIP. Houser has not been able to limit baserunners this season, with the majority of them coming on base hits. This game should be pretty one-sided offensively early.
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The Play: Cubs ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total Prop: Cubs First Five Over 3.5 – 0.5U
A Tale of Two Seasons: Mets @ Diamondbacks
The New York Mets take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in game two of their three-game set. On the mound for the Mets will be Kodai Senga. In 15 starts this season, Senga has a 3.53 ERA across 81.2 innings with 101 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.26 ERA across 38.2 innings with 46 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. So far this season, Senga has been the Mets’ best starting pitcher. That comes in a rotation containing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Across the diamond will be lefty Tommy Henry. In 13 games this season (12 starts), Henry has a 4.08 ERA across 68.1 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. Over his last seven games (six starts), he has a 3.53 ERA across 35.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. Henry has faced teams from the NL East more than any other division this season. In five starts against teams from the NL East (three against the Washington Nationals, two against the Philadelphia Phillies) he carries a 4.94 ERA across 27.1 innings with 21 strikeouts and a 1.50 WHIP. Expect one side to win the series today while racking up a ton of strikeouts in the process.
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The Play: Mets ML – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts – 0.5U
The Cellar Dwellers: A’s @ Tigers
In a matchup of two teams destined to have very good odds in next year’s lottery draft, the Oakland A’s take on the Detroit Tigers. The A’s will send lefty Ken Waldichuk to the mound. Through 19 games this season (11 starts), Waldichuck has a 6.78 ERA across 66.1 innings with 64 strikeouts and a 1.91 WHIP. Over his last seven games (one start), he has a 4.60 ERA across 15.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and a 1.72 WHIP. In his last two “starts,” he has not gone more than 1.2 innings. So it will be interesting to see how deep into this game he goes.
The Tigers will be sending a lefty of their own to the mound in Eduardo Rodriguez. In 11 starts this season, Rodriguez has a 2.13 ERA across 67.2 innings with 67 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. This has been, by far, his best season to date. In his last seven starts, he has a 1.65 ERA across 43.2 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 0.94 WHIP. Although Rodriguez is pitching way above his head this season, he has limited the offensive output of much better teams than the A’s. Despite each team’s overall record, this one will be fun to watch.
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The Play: Tiger ML – 0.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Tigers First Five Over 2.5 – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Justin Steele, Adrian Houser, Kodai Senga, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Tommy Henry, Ken Waldichuk, Eduardo Rodriguez
