It feels good to be back in the win column. It’s a new week now, and the first full week of July. There will be a lot fewer days to bet this month with the All-Star break being next week, so let’s make the most of the time we do have and win some money. Here are our baseball bets for July 3rd.
Baseball Bets for July 3rd
The Headliner: Braves @ Guardians
The Atlanta Braves travel north to start the week with a three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians. After collecting a sweep over the weekend, the Braves will be sending Bryce Elder to the mound for today’s matchup. Through 16 starts and 96 innings, Bryce has a 2.44 ERA with 79 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven starts, he has a 2.89 ERA across 43.2 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP. Bryce won’t strike many guys out, but he will limit the walks he allows. That will do well toward his success in today’s game as the Guardians rank 22nd in the league in team OBP (.313) and 25th in the league in combined walks (250).
The Guardians will counter with 23-year-old rookie Gavin Williams. Through two career starts so far, Gavin has a 2.84 ERA across 12.2 innings with 10 strikeouts and a 0.71 WHIP. This is a very small sample size to draw anything from, albeit the first two starts of his career did come against the Oakland A’s and the Kansas City Royals. Facing an offense like the Braves’ is a completely different level of baseball and does not bode well for Williams in his third career start. I do hope the young man is successful in his career. But today, with the first of our baseball bets for July 3rd, I hope that we are successfully cashing in tickets.
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The Play: Braves ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Braves First Five Over 2.5 – 1U
The Weird Monday Conclusion of a Weekend Series: Astros @ Rangers
It’s not very often that we have a four-game series bleed over into Monday. Especially when the series is entirely indoors. But that is what we are getting today as the Houston Astros look to take three out of four from the Texas Rangers. On the mound for the Astros will be Cristian Javier. Through 16 starts this season and 87 innings, Javier holds a 3.72 ERA with 78 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.46 ERA across 34.1 innings with 19 strikeouts and a 1.49 WHIP. The majority of the inflated stats have come from his last two starts in which he has combined to allow 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings while only striking out two batters and allowing over three baserunners an inning. Javier is a very volatile arm who can bounce back to form at any time.
The Rangers will have lefty Martin Perez on the mound. Through 16 starts and 90.1 innings, Perez has a 4.28 ERA with 60 strikeouts and a 1.42 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.63 ERA across 41 innings with 22 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. Over his last three, however, he has allowed only two earned runs in each of those starts with 19 innings pitched and less than a runner on per inning. I expect this game to be as low scoring, or even more so, than the previous three in this series, even if only in the first half.
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The Play: Astros ML – 1U
Bonus Total Bet: First Five Under 4.5 – 0.5U
Off the Perfecto: Orioles @ Yankees
The Baltimore Orioles head to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees. In a divisional matchup, the Orioles will be sending Tyler Wells to the bump. Through 16 starts this season, Wells holds a 3.21 ERA across 92.2 innings with 95 strikeouts and a 0.88 WHIP. Over his last seven, he holds a 3.54 ERA over 40.2 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP. Wells has faced the Yankees twice so far this season. In those games, he has combined to allow nine runs, all earned, over 11 innings while striking out 14, allowing 13 baserunners, and five total home runs.
On the mound for the Bronx Bombers will be perfect game artist Domingo German. After throwing the 24th perfect game in Major League history in his last start, German comes into today with a 4.54 ERA across 15 starts and 81.1 innings with 78 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. Over his last seven, German has a 5.20 ERA over 36.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. German has missed the Orioles so far this season but has started against other divisional rivals six times. In those starts, he has pitched 27.2 innings with an ERA of 4.88 with 22 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP. The last of our baseball bets for July 3rd, on paper, looks to be a shootout.
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The Play: Orioles ML – 0.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Game Total Over 8.5 – 1.5U
Main photo credits:
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Bryce Elder, Gavin Williams, Cristian Javier, Martin Perez, Tyler Wells, Domingo German
