Focusing on fantasy baseball waiver wire targets available in 50% or more in most leagues. With a pitching theme and an emphasis on late-inning options, here are five (plus a Bonus) waiver wire targets to buy for Fantasy Week 14.
Fantasy Baseball Week 14 Waiver Wire Targets
Must-Add
Aroldis Chapman
The AL West division-leading Texas Rangers shrewdly traded for surging left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman from the Kansas City Royals. The Rangers have become the team to beat in the West. This move improves a lackluster bullpen, which has seen fellow lefty Will Smith take the majority of saves this season.
While the Rangers’ organization equivocated on whether Chapman would be utilized as their closer, manager Bruce Bochy has previously been a one-man guy. Either way, Chapman’s rediscovery of form in his age-35 season makes for a great addition for fantasy teams going into the All-Star break.
In addition to regaining velocity on his fastball, which averages just under 100 mph, Chapman is currently dealing some of the nastiest strikeout stuff he has in recent years. Putting up gaudy strikeout rates, his 16.26 K/9 would rank as one of the best in his career, if he sustains it.
Chapman also goes to a slider 28% of the time, and the 88 mph slide piece generates a filthy 40% Whiff rate according to Statcast. Both these pitches get elite spin rates, and his fastball ranks in the 90th percentile of Fastball Spin. His overall 138 Stuff+ grades out as a top-10 pitcher this season.
Also worth noting is Chapman has yet to give up a home run. His strikeout ratios alone make him worth owning in most leagues. But the likelihood of him becoming the closer for a Rangers team charging toward the playoffs makes him a must-add for anyone who might be speculating on saves.
We've acquired LHP Aroldis Chapman from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for LHP Cole Ragans and minor league OF Roni Cabrera. pic.twitter.com/OdjuUtVFvy
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 30, 2023
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #1
Hunter Harvey
Some may not remember, but Washington Nationals reliever Hunter Harvey was a first-round pick by their Beltway neighbor, the Baltimore Orioles. Drafted as a starter, Harvey represents yet another reclamation success story of a top-flight pitcher being derailed by injuries – only to reemerge as a converted high-leverage relief option.
Some may also not be aware that Harvey appears to have usurped the closer role from Kyle Finnegan. But anyone who needs help with saves should be aware that Harvey’s skills have translated over as top-flight in his conversion to the bullpen.
Harvey’s striking out over 10 batters per inning – with 41 strikeouts over 36 innings. Maintaining his starter’s arsenal, Harvey still boasts four really good pitches.
His fastball averages 98.7 mph, which checks in at the 98th percentile in the league. His two breaking balls and the fastball garner above-average vertical movement.
But it’s his split finger which gets the most whiffs of all his pitches. He throws the splitty 20% – second most from his fastball, which he offers around 100 mph 60% of the time.
All his pitches generate above-average Stuff+ numbers, and his 121 Stuff+ overall ranks him as a top 30 pitcher by that model.
The Nationals are actually a sneaky good offense, so Harvey could accrue a fair amount of saves over the rest of the season while helping in ratios.
[metabet_core_game_tile query=”530128″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #2
Justin Lawrence
In keeping with the theme of recently leveled-up closers on underperforming teams, check out Colorado Rockies reliever Justin Lawrence for more help in the Saves category.
Yahoo’s ownership percentages show Lawrence and Harvey as identically owned. Lawrence’s skills, however, might be somewhat less sexy. Though when it comes to accumulating saves, it doesn’t always have to be pretty.
Lawrence’s primary weapon is a sweeper which he throws almost 51%. That pitch gets an exceptional 38.2 Whiff% by Statcast.
The sweeper appears even more special by spin rate, generating a disgusting 2947 RPM. Stuff+ also thinks highly of the sweeper with a 124 Stf+ SL.
In addition to striking out over a batter per inning, Statcast favorably assesses Lawrence’s expected output – with xWOBA and xERA in the top 9% of the league.
Lawrence does a good job of keeping the ball in the park with a 3.2% HR/FB. He also induces weak contact, coaxing a 55.6% ground ball rate.
While Pierce Johnson has gotten the majority of the Rockies’ save chances this season, Lawrence has netted three saves in the last week. It would appear that the closer job has mostly become the purview of Lawrence and his devastating sweeper. Be not afraid of Coors, and grab J-Law for saves.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #3
Kenta Maeda
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda got off to a rocky start to the season, replete with line-drive-related injuries and a stint on the Injured List. As a result of some true clunkers, he sports a ghastly 6.23 ERA.
Since his return from the IL though, the crafty righty veteran has looked much sharper. His xERA is a much more palatable 4.05. With additional peripheral indicators like FIP saying his ERA should be more like 3.59 when adjusted for pitcher-independent performance, Maeda represents a classic buying opportunity.
Maeda’s slider rates as above average on Stuff+ at 104 Stf+ SL and posts sick spin rates. His split-finger flashes as an elite pitch at 131 Stf+ FS. He wisely utilizes these two excellent offerings as his primary pitches – going to his slider 34% of the time and slinging the splitter at 30%.
Maeda’s reliance on the fastball as his third pitch may be due to hitters batting over .400 against it – and probably accounts for the early-season blowups. However, it gets above-average whiff rates, along with the splitter and slider. The xBA for the fastball is .273. So again, more peripherals suggest Maeda’s outcomes should improve.
With a juicy matchup on tap this week against the anemic Royals, Maeda looks good in the short term. The Twins’ post-All-Star break schedule includes those same Royals – along with the Oakland A’s, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners – so Maeda could provide some sneaky wins and strikeouts in July.
Bonus Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout
Tarik Skubal
Speaking of juicy matchups, Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal finally returns from the Injured List – after dominating the minor leagues – for a two-start home matchup against the A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. The A’s are a definite start obviously.
Skubal was featured previously as a waiver wire target before a blister interrupted his return to the Majors. His ability to strike out batters and limit walks should be able to help most fantasy players in the second half.
[metabet_core_game_tile query=”530130″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper
Daniel Hudson
Flipping the script on good closers on bad teams, Los Angeles Dodgers reliever veteran Daniel Hudson is a potentially good closer on a very good team. He also just returned from the Injured List to post a clean inning in a non-closing situation.
Another converted starter to the bullpen, Hudson has posted excellent strikeout numbers and low ERAs since successfully making the transition to high-leverage reliever. Once in the bullpen, Hudson pared down to a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and an upper 80s slider.
In 2022 for the Dodgers, Hudson earned five saves over 24 innings pitched – with an 11.1 K/9 and a minuscule 1.85 BB/9. In 2021, he struck out batters at an even better rate of 13.06 K/9 and did so over even more innings, tossing 54 that year.
Fangraphs shows his Swinging Strike rate of around 16% in those years to be a good reason why Hudson was able to become a strikeout machine in 2021 and 2022.
The Dodgers remain a formidable presence in the National League West. The team has been doing a closer’s share in the bullpen, but 36-year-old Hudson has a very good shot to become Dave Roberts’ stable closer enforcer for a team that needs to guarantee late-inning success going forward.
Main photo credits:
William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan, Justin Lawrence, Pierce Johnson, Kenta Maeda, Tarik Skubal, Daniel Hudson
