Yesterday was yet another successful day for those that tailed our plays. Going 4-2 and finishing in the green gives us a 7-4 record on the week and puts us up just under two units! We have another full slate of games today, so let’s jump right into the action and see what baseball bets we have on the docket.
Baseball Bets for June 28th
Headliner: Phillies @ Cubs
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing the Chicago Cubs in the second game of this early week series. Having been one of the best teams in baseball this month, and getting their record above .500, the Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound today. Nola has struggled to perform at the expected levels this season and carries a season ERA of 4.38 across 16 starts and 100.2 innings. He also has not been as successful at striking batters out this season as he only has 98. He has done better over his last seven games, however, with a 4.20 ERA across 45 innings and 55 strikeouts. It’s mostly been the road starts that have killed Nola. Through 9 road starts, he has pitched 55.2 innings and holds a 5.17 ERA.
The Cubs will be sending a veteran of their own to the mound in lefty Drew Smyly. In 15 starts this season, Smyly holds a 3.38 ERA across 82.2 innings. Over his last seven starts and 38.1 innings, his ERA has ballooned a bit. In that stretch, he has pitched to an ERA of 4.23. In contrast to Nola, the majority of Smyly’s success this season has come on the road. Making eight starts on the road and pitching 46 innings, he holds an ERA of 2.74. At home, his ERA is 4.17. Yesterday’s game between these two teams was high-scoring for one side. Expect both teams to tack on some runs early in today’s game.
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Headline Baseball Bet: Phillies ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet – Game Total Over 8 – 1U
Close Matchup: Padres @ Pirates
Our next game sees two teams with similar records in their second game of the series, the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Padres are a team that is currently in a downward spiral after spending more money than any other team outside of New York, and desperately in need of a nudge in the right direction. They send Blake Snell to the mound today in hopes of getting that nudge. Snell has a season ERA of 3.22 this year across 15 starts and 81 innings to go along with 104 strikeouts. He has been lights out over his last seven starts, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 40 innings with 61 strikeouts. While he has been good at both, he has been better on the road this season with a road ERA of 2.68 in eight starts and 43.2 innings and half of his total strikeouts.
The Pirates counter Blake Snell with their ace, Mitch Keller. Would you believe me if I told you that Keller ranked second in the NL in strikeouts? In what is shaping up to be the best season of his career thus far, Keller also holds a 3.45 ERA across 16 starts and 99 innings. He has performed much better at home this season, as through seven starts he carries a 2.78 ERA across 45.1 innings. He also limits baserunners much better at home. Keller carries a home WHIP of 0.98 into today’s game, compared to a road WHIP of 1.49. This could be the sweat of the night, but I would back the underdog in this one.
Close Matchup Baseball Bet: Pirates ML – 1U
Bonus Prop Bet: First Five U4.5 – 0.5U
Heavy Favorite: Nationals @ Mariners
In the rubber match of this series, the Washington Nationals take on the Seattle Mariners on getaway day. The Mariners took game one of this series in decisive fashion, while the Nationals took game two in extras. Today, the Nationals send veteran Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has an ERA of 5.32 across 16 starts and 89.2 innings. Over his last seven, he carries a 6.18 ERA across 39.1 innings. With the state of the Nationals, manager Dave Martinez has seemingly left Corbin in just to eat innings despite his struggles. Corbin is much worse on the road than at home. In seven road starts he holds a 6.34 ERA in 38.1 innings. Corbin also holds a very high HR/9 of 1.51 on the season.
The Mariners counter with young Logan Gilbert. Gilbert comes in today with a 4.07 ERA across 15 starts and 86.1 innings. Gilbert limits baserunners well with a season WHIP of 1.02. Over his last two starts, he pitched 12.1 innings and only allowed three earned runs. He is not much of a strikeout pitcher, however, as he only has eight through those two starts and 89 on the year. It’s all about cashing tickets with baseball bets. Sometimes the most obvious play is the hardest one to make. Don’t overthink this one.
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Heavy Favorite Baseball Bet: Mariners ML – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 HR – 1U
Main photo credits:
Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Players mentioned:
Aaron Nola, Drew Smyly, Blake Snell, Mitch Keller, Patrick Corbin, Logan Gilbert, Julio Rodriguez
