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Kris Bryant No Longer on Fast Track To Hall Of Fame

Once upon a time, a bright-blue-eyed third baseman made his debut on the north side of Chicago for the Cubs. That player was Kris Bryant and his Hall of Fame trajectory is no longer what it used to be. Starting his career, he went on a multi-season long tear like no other and appeared to be on the fast track to being a generational player. 

Debuting at the not-young but not-elderly age of 23, there was controversy surrounding the tall righty. Surrounding him was a lot of buzz on the organizational treatment of his debut. 

Despite a scorching hot Spring Training performance, where he looked clearly ready for MLB pitching and everyone expected him to make the roster, he began the season in the minor leagues. Bleacher Report called it a league-wide problem rather than an individual team problem, but at the end of the day, it was still a problem. 

The reason for this was so the Chicago Cubs could maintain Bryant for an extra season, but by waiting to call him up, they could manipulate his service time not to have reached the six-full seasons required for free agency until after six-plus seasons. 

Having to deal with the controversy had no impact on his production, though, as after his April 17, 2015, debut, he took off running.

A beautiful start 

With Bryant finally at the big-league level, he and the Cubs as a whole seemed destined to take the league by storm. Playing in 151 games in his first year, Bryant took the league by storm and immediately became one of its most feared hitters. He finished the year with a Rookie of the Year Award and All-Star Game appearance under his belt, as well as finishing 11th in MVP voting. 

His 26 HR were a then-franchise record for a rookie, and his .858 OPS was second on the team. He also got his first taste of the postseason as a rookie. However, he did not hit particularly well on his first date with extra baseball. 

Even with how good his rookie campaign was, 2016 was his breakout. Bryant led the NL in WAR (7.2), slashed .292/.385/.554 with 39 HR and 102 RBI and even was a positive defender, one of the only seasons that was the case of his career. 

Earned his second All-Star nod in as many seasons as well as winning MVP with 29 first-place votes. It appeared that he was on his way to being generational. 

Beyond individual accolades, the most important part of that 2016 season was during the postseason.  Having an OPS above .840 in every round, Bryant was integral in breaking the 108-year curse for the Cubs. Leading them to a World Series win, Bryant secured the final out to break the curse.

He could retire right then and there and would be a legend in Chicago. Obviously, he did not do that. But, it it was clear that he could flame out and will always be remembered fondly for his original team. 

Through 2019, Bryant stayed productive, making another All-Star in that 2019 season and never posting an OPS+ below 120. Unfortunately for the Cubs, the team never replicated their success from the magical 2016 season. Due to lacking success, there began to prepare to move on from the core pieces instead of paying up. 

Twilight Chicago Year and a Half 

In the Pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bryant was bad. Playing in just 34 games, he hit just over the Mendoza line at .206. He also had an OPS of just .644. Being 27% worse than the average batter and one of the worst hitters in the league was uncharacteristic. 

From his 2016 MVP year to 2020, everything was worse. Max exit velocity (89th percentile to 57th), spring speed (88th to 69th), hard hit percentage (60th to 18th), barrel percentage (89th to 31st) and walk rate (82nd to 38th) all became weaknesses of his game, a sign of more decline to come.

His 2021 had more promise, as through 93 games with the Cubs, he was back to a 130 OPS+ and representing the team in his fourth All-Star Game. Looking to maximize their potential, the San Fransico Giants traded for the available Bryant to man the corner outfield. The traded ending his Cubs tenure with 28.2 WAR and with a forever solidified legacy. 

While he was not elite in his 51 games with the Giants, he was not great either. He had a 113 OPS+ in San Fran and hit seven HR. He was a bright spot in the team’s NLDS loss, however, posting an OPS of 1.147 in the series. His performance and track record made him a hot commodity in the offseason. 

In that year’s free agency, he and the Colorado Rockies agreed to a seven-year $182 million deal to bring him to the team. It did not make much sense in terms of player and team timeline for contention. But, it was the perfect environment for a player of Bryant’s caliber to put up godly numbers. 

Injuries and loss of HOF trajectory 

The relationship between Bryant and the Rockies started with just a 42-game sample size, as injuries kept the righty sidelined for much of the first year of his deal. Entering the new season, a healthy-looking Bryant looked poised to return to form and make a run for a fifth All-Star nod. 

But that has not been the case so far. Through 50 games, he has an 87 OPS+, has been worth -0.4 WAR and has hit just five HR. In the blink of an eye, he is now 31 years old with an injury history. He is not putting up great numbers when he is on the field and frankly is not in a situation that will benefit him in terms of team accomplishments. 

It is not too late for him to find his mojo, as he does have five years on his contract. However, with voters recognizing that his future numbers will be aided by Coors, he will need to reach at least 300 HR to make a case. He also needs significant numbers in terms of WAR and a higher hit total to reach the hall.

 

Photo Credit- John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

Players Mentioned- Kris Bryant

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