The Philadelphia Phillies drafted Aaron Nola with the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft. He quickly rose through the Minor Leagues and would make his debut for the Phillies on July 21st, 2015. It would be the first of many Quality Starts in his career. Some call Aaron Nola an ace. Some say that he is inconsistent. No one can argue that when on, he is one of the preeminent pitchers in the game today.
Aaron Nola’s major league debut. July 21, 2015. pic.twitter.com/GnxZz1x0ct
— John Foley (@2008Philz) March 3, 2023
But, therein lies the issue. The Phillies and Aaron Nola failed to agree on a contract extension before the season. Nola has said that he does not want to negotiate during the season, as is the case with most players. However, be it the implementation of the pitch clock, or the extended workload from pitching deep into the playoffs last season, Nola has not been himself through the first half. So, what do the Phillies do?
The Aaron Nola Conundrum
An Extension
Seemingly the easiest answer, and one that would please most fans would be to wait until the season is over and work on an extension. Nola has been a fan favorite since debuting almost eight years ago and has been with the team through the bad times and the good. There was a time when Aaron Nola was the best player on the entire roster! Now, he is “just” one of the better players on a very top-heavy roster.
What would an extension look like for a pitcher of Aaron Nola’s caliber? You don’t have to go too far into the weeds to find the answer. According to Baseball Reference’s similarity scores, the most similar pitcher to Aaron Nola is none other than rotation-mate Zack Wheeler! Wheeler entered free agency after his age-29 season. Nola will be entering free agency after his age-30 season. Both pitchers are capable of leading a team’s rotation, with similar skill sets. Wheeler signed a 5-year, $118 million contract with the Phillies. Nola has much less of an injury history than Wheeler, however, and should the Phillies look to extend him it would most likely be a career-long deal. I would expect a Nola extension to be more in the realm of 8-years, $200 million, with a team option or two tacked on to the back should Nola not have a drastic falloff near the end.
Aaron Nola Trade Scenarios
It’s no secret that the Phillies have struggled much more than expected over the first half of the season. Most of the season has been spent in the bottom half of the NL East. It’s also no secret that the Phillies’ farm system is one of the worst in the League. Before the season, it ranked 21st according to MLB.com. So, an Aaron Nola trade can not be completely counted out should the Phillies continue to flounder.
Finding a trade partner to move Nola should not be hard. Nola is the caliber of pitcher that any team would want in their rotation. The biggest question would be the type of return that you could get. Ideally, the Phillies would look to trade with a playoff contender with a strong farm system to get a handful of prospects in return. Teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, and Arizona Diamondbacks all come to mind. All three of those teams ranked in the top-6 for farm systems before the season, and all three would be more than happy to welcome Aaron Nola with open arms. And, who knows? The Phillies could always bring Nola back through free agency with a better farm system in tow!
Qualifying Offer/Free Agency
The least appealing option of them all. Letting Aaron Nola test the waters in free agency. If you’re the Phillies, this should not be an option. Nola has been a cornerstone of your organization for years now. Much like Cole Hamels was before him. Pitchers like Nola and Hamels do not come around very often, and when you have one, you need to lock them up. But, it doesn’t always work that way.
Should the Phillies and Aaron Nola fail to reach an agreement, and they have not traded him at the deadline, the last option would be the Qualifying Offer. Essentially, it is a 1-year deal, worth somewhere in the late teens to early-20 million, that should Nola reject it and sign elsewhere, the Phillies would receive an extra draft pick between the first and second rounds of the 2024 Draft. Yes, it would be another early-round prospect that could potentially be a major player in the Phillies’ future, but Aaron Nola is a more vital cog in the machine than a prospect that may or may not pan out. It should not come to this, but if it does, one can only hope that Nola accepts the Qualifying Offer, so that we can repeat this same old song and dance next season.
Main Photo credits:
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels
