The Battle of the Beltway got under way last night with a snooze fest for casual fans, but a dream for under bettors. Both starting pitchers were phenomenal and only one total run was mustered.
Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer had his best outing of the season after struggling early on. This was his first start he was able go go deeper than five innings and combined with the bullpen to keep the Washington Nationals scoreless. He had the Nationals guessing and sat down six via strikeout for his season high.
Orioles Nationals Betting Breakdown
The Orioles’ offense was held in check. They rank 3rd in the league in runs per game (5.59), but were only able to bring one across the plate on an Austin Hays single in the 4th. They may struggle again tonight against the Nationals’ best pitcher, MacKenzie Gore. The former top prospect is off to a hot start this season after moving cross-country as part of the Juan Soto mega deal. His 3.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 3 starts rank best among the Nationals starting pitchers. His 18 strikeouts is the most among all the pitchers on the team. He has been one of the few bright spots on one of the worst teams in baseball.
Betting Expectations
I expect Gore to shove yet again today. The young upstart is in a good spot at home to have another strong performance. Gore’s whiff percentage is in the 76th percentile per Baseball Savant, which lines up perfectly against the strikeout prone Orioles. The birds from Baltimore rank 18th in Major League Baseball with 9.00 strikeouts per game. In comparison the Nationals rank 1st with only 6.47 strikeouts per game. One of the few things the 5-12 club does well. Gore should be able to rack up a slew of strikeouts tonight, which has us looking at betting his over.
Opposite of Gore on the bump is Kyle Bradish who is only making his second start of the season. He has been out since April 3rd after taking a line drive to the foot against the Texas Rangers. Last season Bradish was decent with a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts. However, we may see him struggle as he looks to settle in after working back from the injury. A betting system we like to follow is fading pitchers making their MLB debuts. Along with those who are returning from long layoffs due to injury. This combined with our support of Gore makes for a perfect spot to look to back the Nationals as short home underdogs.
BEST BETS:
Nationals ML +125 and Gore over 6.5 strikeouts +105 on DraftKings.
Photo Credit: © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Dean Kremer, Austin Hays, MacKenzie Gore, Juan Soto, Kyle Bradish
