It’s early in the 2023 season. One of the dangers in baseball analysis is to infer too much from player numbers when sample sizes are small. Still, we learn things from every game. The ultimate goal is to have the nine best players on the field. So what can and can’t be explained by current San Francisco Giants statistics? The answer isn’t as simple as you might think.
Which Giants Statistics Currently Carry the Most Weight?
As Usual, There is Fluctuation
Joey Bart, J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores, and Thairo Estrada are each hitting over .300 in a relatively small number of plate appearances. Bart, though, has struck out in six of his 20 plate appearances for a strikeout rate of 30%. While 20 plate appearances presumably indicate no more about a player’s expected strikeout rate than about his expected average or on-base percentage, there is still the backdrop of the highly negative projections on Bart in terms of striking out. That such projections are coming true shouldn’t hit smart fans as a surprise.
When Estrada is at his best, he has a high propensity for getting on base and for situational hitting. He’s been batting first in almost all of the Giants’ recent games. While it’s likely that his .339 batting average will normalize a bit over the coming months, his bat and versatile defensive ability should continue to be productive tools.
Gregor Blanco highlights Thairo Estrada’s hot start to the season ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/w8ihdKdbpP
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) April 18, 2023
Then too, it’s hard to say when a player’s cold performance is an actual slump and when it is essentially a random fluctuation. Brandon Crawford is hitting only .170 in 53 plate appearances. It is not likely that he will be an All-Star again. This isn’t intended to make fans mad, but a solid performance is probably the best we can hope for from him in 2023. On the encouraging side, he is more likely to be solid than his current batting average might indicate. Remember that it’s still only the month of April.
Giants’ statistics can be expected to fluctuate at this time. That doesn’t mean we discard them. It just means we have to be careful.
Evaluation of Pitching is a Different Formula
It can often be more useful to evaluate pitchers on an outing-by-outing basis, rather than overall ERA. This stands as the main difference between looking at pitchers and hitters. One reason for this is that pitchers accumulate a far higher number of plate appearances from which to make inferences in a single game. A starting pitcher might show his skill or lack thereof in over 20 consecutive plate appearances, while for a hitter, it’s often five at the most.
Some of this might seem objectionable to those who only care about the total number of plate appearances (or batters faced) for a given player. But one can’t see the entire picture without a focus on consistency. For relief pitchers as well as starters, the key is to be on their game.
This is why it is appropriate to be concerned about Logan Webb’s lack of consistency, Taylor Rogers’ lack of command, and Camilo Doval’s lack of clutch ability. At the end of every game, the point is how the performance of each individual player contributed to the win or loss. Early-season Giants statistics should reflect this fact.
Significant Giants Statistics: Conclusion
On the offensive side for the Giants, it is too early to tell for the most part. Home runs may be the key for them, and their power will have to be consistent. If Dan Szymborski’s prophecy comes true, they will hold their own in this regard.
As mentioned previously, pitchers can be best looked at from one outing to the next. But in-game results are more significant than peripheral statistics such as strikeout rate. After all, there are only two possible outcomes for a game: a win or a loss.
Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned:
Joey Bart, J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, Brandon Crawford, Logan Webb, Taylor Rogers, Camilo Doval
