The San Francisco Giants pitching will need to step it up this season. But instead of merely restating this obvious fact, it is necessary to look into the details. Their team ERA in 2022 was a respectable enough 3.85. However, that doesn’t tell us a whole lot. For example, in low-leverage situations, one hardly cares if the pitcher allows a few runs, yet it would affect the team’s ERA and their Pythagorean record. Conversely, one run can mean more in certain circumstances than may be recorded in the general picture. Fortunately, most fans look at the ERA’s of individual pitchers rather than the team, although even this has its deficiencies.
This first paragraph was included mainly to get everybody’s thinking cap on, and it would be beyond the scope of this piece to consider every component of thought that could go into it. Which pitchers can and can’t have their performance defined based on their ERA? How much does defense play into this? These questions would require separate discussions to answer. But let’s look into the main one.
Giants Pitching for 2023
Quantity of Innings or Leverage of Innings?
This is like asking whether the starting rotation or bullpen is most critical. While not a perfect way of distinguishing between the two roles, it could be a better summary given the general picture. Starters throw the majority of innings. But the last three outs of a game are the hardest to get. And if the save gets blown, the offense has little or no time to come back. As a side note, this difficulty also applies to the eighth inning. Setup relievers are sickeningly underpaid when compared to what closers receive. Sometimes, the highest leverage situations occur in the eighth. This is particularly true when the opposing team’s best hitters bat in that inning.
But back to the Giants’ situation. While the roles of the rotation and bullpen can’t be precisely defined in terms of “quantity” and “leverage,” respectively, they will nonetheless be the focus here. The starting rotation was a significant strength for the Giants in 2021. In 2022, it wasn’t terrible, but it needed to be better to get the Giants into the playoffs.
The Substance of the Game
The Giants lost their first game to the New York Yankees on Logan Webb’s lousy outing. It all boils down to innings, outs, and runs. Scoring and preventing them are the bottom line for the Giants, and the innings will add up. Giants pitching can be quantified based on how it contributes overall, but the most important takeaway is the result on a game-by-game basis. The two possible outcomes are a win and a loss. The rotation has to step up. Last year, Logan Webb and Carlos Rodon were excellent. But the Giants needed more consistent starters. (Note that Alex Cobb’s inconsistency was largely a result of poor defense.)
Rodon has signed with the Yankees, whom the Giants opened their season against. No doubt his departure hit the front office as a significant blow. But the rotation could still be lights out this year if the Giants’ other starters can rebound and pitch as they did in the prime of their careers.
Where Does the Quality of the Offense Come Into Play?
The Giants have had plenty of cold streaks in which their primary weakness was that they could not get a good start to things. When the Giants’ pitching couldn’t handle it, they had issues. We don’t like to remember the bad old times. Hopefully, the Giants will put them behind this year. They’ve demonstrated the ability to score runs this spring, which is vast. However, the pitching will need to carry them through at least some days when the offense is quiet. The lineup should be productive this year but will have ups and downs.
The Bullpen
In 2018, the Colorado Rockies decided to try out a “super bullpen,” signing relievers Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis to massive contracts. All of them pitched better than expected. (Davis was a finalist for the Reliever of the Year award in 2018. Why? Because he led the National League in the worst statistic in baseball: saves.) But, if they had pitched effectively, it would have been huge for the Rockies.
The Giants haven’t spent big money this past offseason in any respect, but their projections are relatively favorable in all areas, including the bullpen. The main thing that’s gone wrong with the Giants’ bullpen in the recent past is the fact that they allow runs at the bad times. The bullpen’s failure kept them out of the postseason in 2020. And in 2022, its failure in the week before the Trade Deadline was costly.
Not only must Giants relievers have the ability to get quick outs in close games, but they will also need to be adept at killing rallies. Who’s the best guy to come in with runners on base? We’re not answering that here (maybe later), but they must pitch out of jams. Their back-end squad of Camilo Doval, John Brebbia, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Rogers needs to be elite.
Conclusion
Hopefully, you got a picture of the functions the Giants’ pitching must carry out in 2023. Regarding overall depth, the starting rotation is the area for which consistency is most critical. The Giants could get by with mediocre middle relievers if the starters throw quality innings. However, the back end of the bullpen has an equivalent vitality. When the Giants have the lead, they need to hold it consistently.
Photo Credit: © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Carlos Rodon, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Camilo Doval, John Brebbia, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers
