The St. Louis Cardinals have shifted the outlook for their season dramatically. A nine-game winning streak can do that. On September 7th, the Cardinals were 69-68 and trailed both the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds by three and a half games for the last wild-card spot. The Philadelphia Phillies led them by a game and a half. They were firmly on the outside looking in.
Since then, the Cardinals have gone 11-1. They took two of of three from the Reds. They virtually eliminated any chance the New York Mets had for a late-season surge with a three-game sweep. Then the Cardinals turned their attention to the Padres, completing another sweep. Following their win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, the Cardinals sit three and a half games above the Reds, well-positioned for a postseason berth with only 13 games remaining.
Late Inning Warriors
The Cardinals’ recent winning ways have been largely driven by late-inning production. Through September 7th, the Cardinals’ offense averaged just under one run per game during the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. Over the last 12 games, the Cardinals have averaged two runs per game during the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. During their nine game winning streak, the offense has averaged 2.56 runs per game during those late innings. Their offensive production during the first six innings has stayed nearly the same as they averaged 3.01 runs per game before the recent surge and they have averaged 3.16 runs per game over the last 12 games. In short, the Cardinals have been able to score a few runs early all year, but now they are tacking on late in the game.
The performance by the bullpen has been similar. They started off the year strong, but faltered after the All-Star Break. The Cardinals Big Three in the pen looked worn down and ineffective. Manager Mike Shildt shifted Giovanny Gallegos into the closer role and moved Alex Reyes into lower-leverage spots. Additionally, Luis Garcia and fellow strike-thrower, T.J. McFarland, have been effective in expanded roles as Genesis Cabrera has returned to his earlier form. The Cardinals have only surrendered 11 runs in the late innings across the last 12 games.
Dangerous Wild Card Team
Although the Cardinals securing the second wild card is far from a foregone conclusion, they do make for an intriguing team if they make the playoffs. Adam Wainwright has plenty of postseason experience and has been one of the best in the National League in the second half. Jon Lester just won his 200th career game and has a 2.51 postseason ERA. Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson could potentially return before the season ends though it’s hard to know what they can contribute.
While the top wild-card team will have a better record, it’s hard to imagine any desire to face the Cardinals in a one-and-done game, especially if the offense and bullpen keep performing well late in games. They could go deep into the playoffs if they can stay this hot.
Main Photo:
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Players/Managers Mentioned:
Mike Shildt, Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes, Luis Garcia, T.J. McFarland, Genesis Cabrera, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson
