A lot of eyes are on the front office team of the Colorado Rockies these days. Fans that filled three million seats a season from 2017 to 2019 are watching. Other major league teams with interest in acquiring difference-making talent are watching. Baseball pundits with nothing to talk about because of a free agent market moving at the speed of smell are watching. Everyone wants to find out if there will be a Rockies rebuild.
Make “The Decision”
The organization needs to decide what course it will take moving forward. They are not good enough to win their division and have a thin chance of earning a wild card berth. The Rockies have two possible courses in front of them. First, they can go for a “Hail Mary” by trying to win with what they have and what little they can add with any available payroll room. On this course pretty much everything will have to go right for them, which is highly unlikely. Half their in-division games will come against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres and earning the second wild card spot will likely match them with one of those teams in October.
Winning now is an attempt to convince superstars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story to remain with the team after the 2021 season. Both have avenues out of Denver via free agency at season’s end. But with little payroll room to acquire more supporting players, the Rox face pretty long odds against success.
Second, the choice can be made for a Rockies rebuild. That may have already begun with the non-tendering of contracts to Tony Wolters and David Dahl. And if a rebuild is in the offing, the depth of that process will be critical.
The Rockies Rebuild
The first and foremost adjustment the organization needs is a complete re-working of the scouting system. The Colorado Rockies farm system is bottom tier. It’s ranked 28th by MLB.com and 29th by MiLB.com. The system is lean on overall talent, and there is a noticeable lack of pitching depth. The top ten prospects in the Rockies system sports just three pitchers and only one of those (#10 Ben Bowden) is even on the verge of a major league test. The scouting department has failed to deliver the one thing the major league team needs the most.
Reconstructing the scouting system should have two phases. The first should be to re-stock the farm system with as much talent as possible regardless of positions. Looking at individual positions as sub-pipelines of their own has produced a network incapable of supporting the big league team effectively. In this day and age, talented players move between positions much more often and that 21st-century thinking is sorely needed. Secondly, a commitment to a thriving pitching pipeline is an absolute. And not just pitching, but the kind of pitching that works at Coors Field. Prospects with plus command and change-ups are desirable due to Denver’s thin mountain air limiting the bite that sliders, curves, and cutters can have.
Time to Deal
The team is underachieving with the players it has — all the players it has. Also, given the nine-month time table both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are on, trades need to start happening soon to start the Rockies rebuild. Arenado is the obvious big chip in trade talks given his status in the game and the Sword of Damocles-like opt-out clause in his contract set to trigger at season’s end. Any team hoping to convince the eight-time Gold Glove winner to ignore his opt-out would feel much better about its chances if it had a full spring training and a legitimate playoff run to negotiate with. At this point, the five-time All-Star would probably accept a trade to most legitimate contenders.
Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are the other two big talents to offer. Story is entering his last year of club control at an $18.5M price tag. Blackmon has three years and up to $50M, including a heavily incentivized final year, left on his contract. The two represent high value to “win now” teams. Story offers a situation for teams that seek to duplicate the trade-for-and-sign formula the Los Angeles Dodgers achieved with Mookie Betts. The Texas Rangers might be a team that could convince the Lone Star State native to forego his free agency. Blackmon can give a team up to three years of a veteran lefty bat. Teams in a “take the next step” kind of window like the New York Yankees, Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays might fit the bill in a trade for him.
But Wait, There’s More…
The Rockies also have a group of players that represent secondary and tertiary value to other clubs. It’s impossible for contending bullpens to be too deep in this baseball reality. The Rox have three veteran relievers other teams would welcome. Reigning National League Comeback Player of the Year Daniel Bard and Mychal Givens are both eligible for free agency after the 2021 season. Scott Oberg is recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome in his throwing shoulder and could see a healthy return sometime during the season. There’s also starter Jon Gray, who is headed for free agency after 2021. His mid-90s fastball could fill a rotation spot for a lot of teams. Virtually any contending team could find value in the depth those four could provide.
There are also three players other teams may want as add-on types to round out a trade. Both Raimel Tapia and Yency Almonte are players that hung around for several seasons but seem to have figured the major league level out recently. Either could step in to a new role in a change of scenery and carry their weight. Finally, there’s Carlos Estevez, he of the fastball that touches a hundred miles an hour. He’s also the guy that has had great promise but underachieved on a regular basis. One look at this home/away stats reveals his road ERA is at least half his home number. It might not be too difficult to sell him as a victim of the Coors Effect.
Adding It Up
That’s ten players of major and secondary value the Rockies rebuild can start start with. Depending on which teams the Rockies trade with, up to fifteen young talents with a lot of inexpensive and controllable years to offer can seed the rebuilding process. And that’s without touching the rotation core of German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela. It would surely be difficult to see Arenado in a Mets uniform or Blackmon visiting Coors Field with Cardinals redbirds on his chest, but it’s far better than the alternative. Playing the season with them and ending up with far less or nothing in return would be disastrous.
The bottom line is that the best course needs to be taken for the club. If for nothing else, the Rockies fans deserve it. Prior to the abbreviated 2020 season, the purple-clad faithful filled nine million over three seasons. Loyalty like that has earned the club’s commitment to build a sustained winner. Most of the group now on the roster has been around for a few years. As beloved as they are, this bunch hasn’t delivered the next level, and the window for their success is all but closed. Hopefully the decision has already been made and talks are underway with interested teams. Acting now is what’s best for the team and the fans.
Main Photo Embed from Getty Images
