As of right now, the New York Yankees sit atop the AL East with a 10-6 record. They currently have a two game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays and the surprising Baltimore Orioles. Aaron Judge is continuing his home run tear and cementing his early-MVP candidacy. Also, Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman are proving that they are not just one-year wonders.
However, not everything is going smoothly for the Yankees. Other than Gerrit Cole, the Yankees starting rotation once again has questions.
The starting rotation will be in a state of flux at the conclusion of this season. Both Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton will be free agents at the end of the year. J.A. Happ also has a vesting option that will have to be figured out. It is possible that the Yankees could have three brand new starters in the rotation next year. Here’s a look at what the New York Yankees starting rotation could look like in 2021.
Starting Pitching Woes
Currently Cole is 3-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts. The rest of the Yankees starters are 2-3 in 11 starts and sport a 5.82 ERA. Both Happ and Paxton have ERAs over 7.00 and neither has won a game. Mashiro Tanaka’s ERA is 1.17, but he received no runs as the Yankees failed to score in last Friday’s loss to the Rays.
Even after signing Cole to a mega deal in the offseason, the Yankee rotation still remains perhaps the biggest question mark for the team. Tanaka has been solid, but limited as he is still recovering after taking a liner off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton. Paxton has been struggling, coming off of offseason back surgery. However, he did strike out 11 in 6 1/3 innings before giving up two home runs in Yesterday’s loss. Happ has just been disappointing as his velocity and strikeouts are both down.
Also, Jordan Montgomery is still trying to find his groove after making only one start in 2019. Domingo German won’t be seen this season as he is still serving an 81-game domestic violence suspension.
2021 Yankees Starting Rotation Sure Things
Gerrit Cole
This one is obvious. Cole is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and just signed a nine-year, $324 million free agent deal with the Yankees. He hasn’t lost a game since May 22nd of 2019. Cole is not going anywhere any time soon
Masahiro Tanaka
While there is some argument as to whether Tanaka is an ace, there’s no doubt that he’s consistent. He is 75-43 with the Yankees and is a two-time All-Star. He’s even better in the playoffs. In seven postseason starts, Tanaka has an ERA of 1.12 in 41 innings pitched and has never allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts. Of all the Yankee pitchers with at least 40 postseason innings pitched, only Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera has a lower ERA at 0.70. The Yankees will re sign Tanaka and he will likely finish his MLB career with the Yankees.
Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery will most likely be the Yankees fourth of fifth starter next year. Although he is coming off of Tommy John surgery, he is still young and has a lot of upside. He showed the Yankees enough in Spring Training 2.0 this year to earn a spot in the rotation.
2021 Internal Rotation Options
German was arguably the Yankees best starting pitcher last season. He went 18-4 in 27 starts with 153 strikeouts. He should be looked upon as a starter next season once his suspension is up.
Schmidt has yet to make his MLB debut, and he most likely won’t this season. His major league service time clock will start if he is called up this year. However, Schmidt showed a lot of potential in both spring training camps. He could be a factor next year, but may not be a regular starter out of the gate as he continues to develop.
In his only start this year, Mike King struggled. He has nine earned run in 10 2/3 innings pitched thus far and has given up three home runs while walking five. King will most likely find a home in the bullpen and could make spot starts or appear on days which the team uses an opener.
Loaisiga has the only other win by the Yankees starting rotation this year for the Yankees. He has started ten games in his three-year MLB career with a record of 5-2. His viability as a long-term starter is still unknown as he’s only thrown a total of 64.2 innings. Like King, Loaisiga could see his home in the bullpen and as a spot starter.
Happ has a vesting option for the 2021 season. He originally had to start 27 games or pitch 165 innings in order for the $17 million contract to kick in for next year. However, with the COVID-shortened season, those numbers have changed. Originally, Happ would need to start only ten games or pitch 61.1 innings, but Happ and the Yankees are renegotiating the option and it could go to arbitration if a deal can’t get done. It appears Happ’s situation with the team remains fluid and his performances so far this year haven’t inspired confidence. He was moved to the bullpen late last year after some poor outings.
2021 Rotation Free Agent Options
”Big Maple” will be a free agent at the end of this year. He had a productive start against the Rays Sunday, but that was his first good start of the year. His ERA is currently 7.84 and he’s only manages to pitch 10.1 innings in three starts. Not a good look for a pitcher entering free agency and the Yankees have yet to discuss an extension with him. There is still time this season for him to turn it around, and the Yankees will look bring him back if he can remain consistent and healthy.
Bauer is interesting as he has stated that he is only going to sign one-year deals moving forward. Bauer has also stated that he would be open to signing with the Yankees. Also, the Yankees appeared to be linked to Bauer before he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds in 2019.
All of the pieces seem to fit for Bauer to be in the Yankee rotation next year. However, there is a potential problem. Cole and Bauer do not get along well. Their beef extends all the way back to their days as teammates at UCLA when Cole questioned Bauer’s work ethic. Although Bauer says he has no problem with Cole, don’t expect the Yankees to take a chance on aggravating the highest paid pitcher ever. Bauer will pitch elsewhere next year.
It seems as if Robbie Ray of the Arizona Diamondbacks has been linked to the Yankees every time there is talk of a trade. In fact, it was just last year that Ray was a target for the Yankees. But, they apparently wanted Clint Frazier and three prospects. That asking price was too high and the Yankees passed.
When it was announced that Luis Severino would be out for the year with Tommy John surgery, Ray’s name surfaced yet again as a potential rotation replacement. The 28-year old left-handed pitcher has struggled in the early season so far. Despite that, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has proven that he is relentless in his pursuit of players he covets. With multiple trade attempts, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Ray will be in pinstripes next year.
2021 Yankees Starting Rotation Author Prediction
1.) Gerrit Cole
2.) Masahiro Tanaka
3.) Robbie Ray
4.) Domingo German
Tanaka re-signs with the Yankees. Cashman pursues Robbie Ray, and is able to snag him with a five-year deal. The cost is losing Paxton, but the Yankees go with the younger, less-injury-prone Ray.
The Yankees could potentially slide one of the young kids at the back end of the rotation, but, they will more likely look for a veteran as players like Schmidt, Deivi Garcia and Albert Abreu get more experience in the minors. Happ and Loaisiga will both be in the bullpen and come on in either long relief or start on open days.
Luis Severino is also expected to be back some time next summer after recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees will proceed with caution as Severino has battled with injuries in the past and will stretch him out slowly.
Outlook
As has been the case the last few years, the Yankees starting rotation will need improvements. There are several ifs with this particular pitching battery including health and durability concerns. However, this will be a very formidable rotation featuring experience and youth and one the Yankees can compete for championships with.
Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images
