MLB Postseason Update: Odds on Each Series
The Nationals beat the Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays made it past the Oakland A’s
to get their shot in the American League Division Series. So now the matchups are set
and we can analyze each series.
Let’s have a look at the series odds from GT Bets to assess probabilities.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are -150 favorites to win their National League Division Series
against the St. Louis Cardinals. This implies a 60% chance to win the series and move
on to the NLCS.
It’s been a few years since the Cards have made the postseason. That said, they still
have Dexter Fowler, Mike Carpenter, and Yadier Molina in their lineup, all who have
plenty of playoff experience. It will be interesting to see how Shildt’s decision to open
the series with the so far inconsistent, Miles Mikolas. His regular season is marked by a
1.22 WHIP and 4.16 ERA. Not terrible, but not great either.
The Braves start the series off with Dallas Kuechel. Kuechel hasn’t had the best
season, going 8-8 and posting a 3.75 ERA through 19 starts. But he has nine playoff
starts under his belt, so he’s no stranger to the pressure. This should give the Braves an
extra edge in Game 1 and put them on their way to winning this series.
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are massive, -250 favorites to move on to the next round. This number implies a 71.4 percent chance that Kershaw and crew make it to the NLCS. Game 1 will be critical for the Nationals. If they can keep their momentum and piggy-back off that wild-card win, then they might actually have a shot. But that will be tough to do. The Dodgers are opening with the 14-4 right-hander, Walker Buehler. He’s had an amazing season, with 215 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. His ERA to xFIP (3.26 & 3.37) shows that there are no signs of regression and we should expect Walker to keep laying it on.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
The Rays laid it on the A’s in Oakland to get into the ALDS. But now they face a 107-win
team. A.J. Hinch is going with Justin Verlander on Friday to open the series for the
Stros. Verlander is riding a 2.58 ERA and .803 WHIP. His solid pitching has led to a
starting record of 21 wins and 6 losses over 34 starts. He’ll be opposite Tyler Glasnow
who only has 12 starts but in that time has racked up 6 wins and just 1 loss. Also,
pitching fantastically with a 1.78 ERA and .890 WHIP. Both Managers are pulling out the big guns, trying to jump out in the lead with the first win of the series. That said, the
Astros are -260 favorites to win this series, an implied probability of 72.2 percent.
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
The Yanks are also above 70 percent in their probability as well. The Bronx Bombers are listed as -245 favorites over the Twinnies to advance to the ALCS. At the time of writing, we still don’t know who the Twins are going to put on the mound, but we do know that James Paxton is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Yankees. Paxton is 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.281 WHIP.
The Twins are still trying to figure out their overall roster so that they are in the best possible position to compete with this massive Yankees lineup. Do they start with Odorizzi, Berrios or Duffey? How do they set their batting order? All in all, the Twins have a lot of momentum, but it’s probably a fruitless venture against this Yankees squad.
MLB Postseason Main Photo:
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 13: A detailed view of baseballs during batting practice prior to the start of the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 13, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
