It’s been somewhat of a wild ride for Junior Guerra this season. The 33-year-old righty began the season in the minor leagues but was promoted in April to join the Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Guerra put together a strong showing over his first 17 starts, posting a 2.79 ERA with an 8.8 K/9.
Things took a turn for the worse, however, when Guerra allowed six runs in four innings against the Pirates on July 13. He hit the disabled list with forearm tightness after the start. He returned to the active roster after a minimum stint on the DL, but he clearly wasn’t the same. Guerra was rocked to the tune of a 6.99 ERA in 8 starts. The Brewers made a waiver deadline move to acquire Gio Gonzalez, a move that shifted Guerra to the bullpen. It seemed as though Guerra had become a forgotten man on the roster. However, he could play a big part in the Milwaukee Brewers’ postseason run.
Junior Guerra Could be the Key for the Brewers in the Postseason
Guerra As a Reliever
Since moving to the bullpen, Guerra has found another gear. In six relief innings, Guerra has allowed no runs and just three hits. He hasn’t walked a batter and has struck out eight, fanning 40% of the opposing hitters he has faced. That all adds up to a 0.49 FIP, 0.50 WHIP, and an even 12.0 K/9.
Part of the reason for Guerra’s success has been an increase in fastball velocity. Working in shorter stints, Guerra is throwing harder than ever.
Notice the sudden spike on the graph? That just happens to coincide with when Guerra moved to the bullpen. In September, Guerra averaged 94.72 miles per hour with his heater. It’s worth noting that this includes Guerra’s final start of the season, which came on September 2. Since moving to the bullpen, Guerra is averaging 95.19 miles per hour with his fastball. That’s easily the hardest he’s thrown this season. The only time Guerra’s fastball had more zip on it was his Major League debut in 2016, when he averaged 95.37 miles per hour in three relief outings.
When pitchers move to relief, they often become a two-pitch pitcher. Working in short stints allows you to use your two best offerings, mainly because hitters will only see you once in the game. Guerra’s signature pitch is his splitter, so it would be natural to assume that he would be mostly fastball/splitter as a reliever. Instead, Guerra has introduced a curveball while leaning away from the splitter. He is now throwing fastballs and curveballs at the exact same rate, utilizing both pitches exactly 44.44% of the time. Meanwhile, his splitter usage is down to 6.94% as a reliever.
As a starter, Guerra typically relied on his fastball and sinker as his primary offerings, with the splitter serving as his put-away pitch. Since becoming a reliever, Guerra has relied on a power fastball while introducing a curveball.
Guerra Could Be a Key Piece in the Postseason
It’s common knowledge by now that the Brewers rely heavily on their bullpen. Milwaukee’s relief unit threw 614 innings during the regular season, which was the second-most in the National League and fifth-most in all of baseball. The Brewers will continue to rely heavily on their ‘pen in the postseason, likely even more so than they did during the regular season. In fact, it’s not out of the question to see Craig Counsell deploy a bullpen game at some point during the postseason. And when a traditional starter is used, the leash will be incredibly short.
Guerra could find himself working some important innings in October, especially if the Brewers make a deep run. He’s definitely lower on the depth chart, but a reoccurring theme throughout the season has been the Brewers relying on their “B” relievers to get important outs when their best arms need rest. This will be especially true in the postseason. While frequent off days help, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, and Corbin Burnes can’t pitch every night. Joakim Soria has struggled when he doesn’t get much rest. Super-reliever Josh Hader typically needs multiple days off between outings to remain effective.
Hader’s availability in the postseason is a big factor here. If Hader throws multiple innings in a game, he’s likely to be unavailable for at least the next two days. If the Brewers need several innings from their bullpen in a game where Hader can’t pitch, Guerra could be the alternative.
Something else to consider is that there will be games in which the Brewers find themselves down by a few runs. Throughout the regular season, it was typically hurlers like Jacob Barnes and Taylor Williams who got such innings. In the postseason, that role could go to Guerra. Every inning is important; having someone who can keep you in the game and give you a chance to come back is huge in meaningful October games.
The Brewers will continue to rely heavily on their bullpen throughout their postseason run. Everyone will have to contribute. It’s a small sample size, but Junior Guerra has shown well as a reliever. There will be plenty of innings for the bullpen to work, and Guerra could end up getting a significant amount of them. He just might wind up being one of the unsung heroes of the postseason for the Brewers.
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
