August is coming to a close, and the Milwaukee Brewers have a good chance at securing their first playoff berth since 2011. A big reason the Brewers have made it to this position is thanks to their pitching staff. The Brewers had the fifth-best team earned run average at the beginning of the month, but the staff has struggled since then. However, two starters have continued to lead the way and provide a steady supply of quality innings, and no one could have predicted that it would be these two arms. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley are the pitchers who are keeping the Brewers afloat in the playoff race.

How Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley Are Leading the Milwaukee Brewers Rotation

Let’s start with Chacin. The 30-year old was signed to a two-year deal this past off-season. He’s on an $ eight million salary and is slated to make only $ six million next season. That deal is now looking like a bargain, as Chacin has been the Brewers most dependable starter. He hasn’t missed a turn in the rotation and leads the team with 28 starts and 157 innings pitched. He’s posted a solid 3.61 ERA to go along with an ERA- of 87 and FIP- of 95. Perhaps the most telling stat is that he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or less in 17 of those 28 starts. Chacin also had a nice season with the San Diego Padres in 2017, but his struggles away from hitter-friendly Petco Park led some to worry that the move to Miller Park would be a rough transition. Chacin has responded by allowing fewer home runs; he’s averaging just 0.80 home runs allowed per nine innings.

How is he finding success? He’s throwing his slider more than ever before. He’s throwing it a whopping 43.8% of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. The slider has always been Chacin’s best pitch; so naturally, he’s finding more success by throwing it more. It’s absolutely dismantled opposing hitters this season. They’re hitting just .164 and slugging .270 against the pitch. Statcast metrics back up that success; an xBA of .173 and xSLG of .282 are only marginally higher than the slider’s actual average and slugging against.

It’s easy to see why Chacin’s slider has given hitters fits this year. When he’s got it working, it has absolutely filthy movement.

Chacin’s steady production and durability have made him the most reliable starter for the Brewers this season. He’s easily the favorite to start a potential Wild Card game should the team win one of the Wild Card spots.

Wade Miley has Resurrected his Career

Wade Miley might be the most fascinating story on the Brewers pitching staff. Miley was essentially the worst starter in baseball for two straight seasons. In 2016, he struggled to the tune of a 5.37 ERA, backed up by a 5.04 DRA. Things got even worse last season, as he carried a 5.61 ERA. His 7.61 DRA was unfathomably awful, and his 5.3 BB/9 was easily the worse of his career.

Miley inked a minor-league deal with the Brewers in February and was given the chance to compete for a rotation spot. He injured his groin near the end of spring training, but the Brewers saw enough potential to keep him around and let him rehab the injury. Miley debuted on May 2 but subsequently strained his oblique in his next start. He was out of action until July.

Finally healthy, Miley has completely shattered expectations. After his latest start, a one-run gem in which he pitched into the 8th inning, he now carries an excellent 2.18 ERA over 11 starts (57.2 innings). The most earned runs he has allowed in a start? Three.

Miley is obviously not going to sustain this level of success, as he’s out-pitching many of his peripheral numbers. However, even with regression, the numbers indicate that Miley would still be a solid starter. His FIP of 3.73 (89 FIP-) and DRA of 4.26 (95 DRA-) are both above-average. His strikeout rate is down, but his swinging strike rate is the second-highest of his career and his best since 2014.

Miley’s a Different Pitcher Now

How has Miley gone from the worst starter in the Majors to one of the best starters for a contending team? He’s completely revamped his pitch selection. Here’s Miley’s pitch usage from last season:
Sinker – 29.9%
Four Seam Fastball – 24.5%
Slider – 13.1%
Cutter – 12%
Changeup – 11%
Curveball – 10.2%

Here’s his pitch usage this season:
Cutter – 35.3%
Curveball – 17.6%
Changeup – 15.9%
Four Seam Fastball – 15.5%
Sinker – 12.8%
Slider – 3%

Miley has completely redesigned his approach as a member of the Brewers. The two noticeable changes are the dramatic spike in cutter usage and replacing the slider with a curveball. The cutter is now Miley’s go-to pitch, and it has played an important part in his success. It has held opposing hitters to a .259 wOBA and .326 slugging percentage. He has essentially replaced a straight, hittable fastball with a pitch that has some late cutting movement. This makes it harder for opposing hitters to square it up. Miley’s curveball has been even more effective (.240 WOBA, 2.9 runs above average). The additions of these two pitches have made a world of difference for the 31-year-old lefty.

Chacin and Miley Continue to Lead the Way

The rest of the Brewers rotation has scuffled a bit. Freddy Peralta and Chase Anderson have been inconsistent, and Junior Guerra has struggled since returning from a forearm injury. Meanwhile, Chacin and Miley have continued to produce and give the Brewers important innings. Miley, for example, pitched a gem on Thursday after his team had burned through their bullpen the night before. At the start of the season, most figured that Anderson and Zach Davies would be the team’s top two starters. Now it’s Chacin and Miley, two under-the-radar names, who are leading the way for the contending Brewers.

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