Corey Knebel‘s rocky season finally reached its low point last Thursday. Coming on for the save with a two-run lead, Knebel was tasked with retiring the bottom three hitters in the San Diego Padres batting order. Sounds easy enough, right? Wrong. Knebel walked each of the first three hitters he faced, followed by an infield single that scored a run. Knebel was removed without recording an out. His successor, the recently-acquired Joakim Soria, inherited a mess. The bases were still loaded with no one out, and the Brewers were clinging to a one-run lead. After recording one out, Soria served up a grand slam to Hunter Renfroe, giving the Padres the lead in what was arguably the ugliest loss of the season for Milwaukee. Knebel was charged with four earned runs without recording an out.

After the game, manager Craig Counsell admitted that Knebel would need some low leverage work to get him back on track, leaving the ninth inning wide open. Many fans have clamored for Jeremy Jeffress and his 1.29 ERA to take over the closer role, but doing this would be a mistake. The Brewers should not have a closer.

The Brewers Should Ditch the Closer Role

I’m going to say this right away: I think the concept of a closer is dumb. It’s time for the Brewers to break tradition and not have one single reliever who is limited to the ninth inning. Just because it’s tradition does not mean that it’s the smartest way to operate a bullpen. This season, Craig Counsell has avoided assigning any relievers to a specific inning, which is something that I applaud him for. However, managing based on matchups and the situation seems to be out the window whenever the ninth inning rolls around. Counsell has gone to Knebel as often as possible whenever the textbook “save situation” has arisen. It didn’t matter who was due up to hit for the opponent. It didn’t matter how small the margin for error was. The ninth inning belonged to Knebel because Knebel was the “closer”.

Let’s take a look at why the concept of a closer is not very logical. In naming a specific closer and adhering to typical closer usage, you are limiting that reliever to a certain inning of the game and not maximizing his value. Here’s a hypothetical situation: the Brewers are playing the Cubs. The Brewers are up by one run in the seventh inning, and the Cubs have Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras due up. Who would you trust most to pitch against these hitters? Josh Hader has pitched the day before and is unavailable. If Jeremy Jeffress is the “closer”, it can’t be him. He’s being saved for the ninth inning. So out comes Corey Knebel, who gives up two runs. The lead is gone, and Jeffress never pitches because that perfect “save situation” never came.

Naming a Specific Closer can Cost you Wins

Sadly, a scenario like the one I just described may be in the cards. Jeffress was being reserved for a save situation in Sunday’s loss against the Braves.

#Brewers manager Craig Counsell said he removed Chase Anderson after four innings because he didn’t want him going thru lineup again after struggling early. Said he thought had bullpen alignment he wanted. Obviously was saving Jeffress for 9th if ahead.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) August 12, 2018

Because Jeffress was being treated as the “closer” for this game, Dan Jennings ended up facing the heart of the Braves order with the game tied in the 7th inning. Ozzie Albies blasted a home run to start the inning, and the Brewers went on to lose by that one run. Jeremy Jeffress never pitched. Had Jeffress pitched in that 7th inning, Jennings could’ve been lined up to face much less threatening names like Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers, and Dansby Swanson. The probability of Jennings throwing a scoreless inning against those hitters is much higher than it was against the heart of the order.

This is what having a “closer” looks like. Dan Jennings will be facing the heart of the order while the Brewers’ best reliever waits for a save situation that might never happen.

The Brewers’ Lack of Bullpen Depth Makes Matchups More Important

The bullpen has been the strength of this Brewers team for most of the year. However, things have taken a turn for the worse for Milwaukee’s relief unit. Matt Albers and Taylor Williams have had their performances derailed by injuries. Corey Knebel has struggled. Dan Jennings has a WHIP of nearly 1.50 over his last 30 outings. This makes it all the more important that Craig Counsell plays the correct matchups in the late innings. If at all possible, Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader need to be the relievers who are facing the most threatening part of the opponent’s order. The remaining relievers should be lined up to face the less potent hitters in the order.

Jeffress has Been Doing Highly Important Work Outside of the Ninth Inning

If Jeffress is regulated to the “closer” role, it would prevent the Brewers from taking advantage of one of his best skills: escaping jams. Jeffress has inherited 33 runners this season, and only eight of them have scored. Perhaps his greatest moment this season came when he inherited a bases-loaded, no-out mess and did not allow a run to score.

Jeffress has helped the Brewers win games by escaping jams in the middle innings. Let him continue to do that.

The Ninth Inning is Not Special

One of the central arguments people make in support of the closer is that the final three outs of a game are always the most difficult to get. They say you need a specialized guy who is both mentally and physically capable of getting those ever-so-important last three outs. However, I think this doesn’t make sense. Is facing the bottom of the order with a three-run lead in the ninth harder than facing the heart of the order with a one-run lead in the seventh or eighth?

The reality is that the concept of having a “closer” has created this inaccurate stigma that the ninth inning is different than any other inning. Because pitching the ninth inning has turned into a specialized role, there is now a widespread belief that there’s something different about it. News flash: the ninth inning is not special. It’s not always more difficult, and it’s not always higher leverage.

Back to the aforementioned Jeffress outing in which he escaped that bases-loaded jam. It was in the sixth inning. It was the biggest moment of the game. Those were the hardest outs of the game to get, and those outs were not in the ninth inning.

How Should Craig Counsell Operate his Bullpen?

It’s pretty simple, really. If the opposing team has the heart of the order up or the current pitcher is in a jam, Jeffress or Josh Hader should enter the game to pitch. Stop having a closer. Stop putting that unnecessary restriction on your best reliever, and stop managing to that statistic known as the “save”. Use your best relievers against the opponent’s best hitters. Use them when the game is on the line. More often than not, those situations come up before the ninth inning.

The idea of having a “closer” is dumb and illogical. Craig Counsell needs to realize that and change his bullpen management accordingly.

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