The common consensus, when it comes to the season Marcus Stroman has had, is simple: he failed to live up to his lofty expectations. With a 9-8 record, 4.55 ERA, and 9.39 hits per 9 innings, Stroman has been terrible, to the surprise of many. When Marcus returned to the Major Leagues after a long term absence due to a torn ACL, he did so with great success. Stroman became the man in a rotation that also included perennial all-star David Price. Coming into this season, he was a young, elite arm with room for growth for the 2016 season. So how did it come apart so quickly this season? Or maybe, just maybe, is it statistical slight-of-hand?
Marcus Stroman’s Curious Season
The use of “conventional” statistics is the easiest way to misunderstand a pitchers value. Win/loss records, ERA, hits against, home runs allowed, etc. If a person looks at the traditional statistics alone, then yes, Stroman has performed at a below average rate. But by using a refined approach to reading statistics, Stroman’s season takes a dramatic turn from disappointing to potentially elite.
As all fans know, baseball is a game of luck and precision. Marcus Stroman has been a victim of luck this season. His season is not a disappointment at all. In fact it, was actually one of the best seasons by any pitcher in the AL this year. Believe it? Statistical cases for Marcus Stroman’s exceptional season are right in front of us.
Despite his poor ERA, Stroman has posted world class metrics. The 25-year-old righty currently ranks second in the AL in xFIP at 3.33, just behind behind Michael Pineda at 3.31. He also ranks 15th in FIP at 3.77, just ahead of Cy Young candidates Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ. Adding to his case is his rank of 10th in WAR at 3.1, 8th in SIERA at 3.51, while sitting near the bottom, 8th last among qualified starters, in BABIP against and 2nd last in HR/FB ratio, at an almost ludicrous 18.4%.
The most exceptional statistic in regards to the 5’8″ Stroman is his ability to induce ground balls. Stroman has posted a 60.7% ground ball percentage. To show how dominant that number is, look at the rapid fall of percentages among the top five. Stroman: 60.7%; Keuchel: 56.7%; Sanchez: 55.9%; Perez: 52.9%; and Graveman: 52.0%. Stroman is a ground ball machine like baseball has rarely seen over the past decade. Last year, Fangraphs did an article comparing Stroman’s arsenal to that of other MLB pitchers based off of varied Z-scores. The comparables on the list are some of the games best. Elite company indeed.
Marcus Stroman may not be having the season that most people expected, but it has been wonderful in an odd way. A season like this perfectly depicts why the beauty of baseball doesn’t sit on the surface. The viewer has to dig for it, and create context for what the eyes are saying to them. Sometimes, much like in life, the answers aren’t simple. But for Marcus Stroman, hopefully this can make the picture clearer.
A curious season indeed.
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