Joakim Soria is costing the Kansas City Royals a playoff birth. Blown save after blown save, he craps away leads for the once-untouchable Royals bullpen. Yet manager Ned Yost insists on using him, and seems to have no plans to change.
Joakim Soria is Killing the Royals Season
Soria is among the league leaders in almost every bad statistic a reliever can have. He has seven blown saves, which ties him for second in the American League. He has eight losses, which is also good for second for relievers in the AL. His ERA keeps ballooning, and currently sits at 4.19, well below the average standard for late-inning relievers. It only gets worse as the stats get more revealing.
Joakim Soria’s Season
Many fans have argued that Soria has been very unlucky this season. To an extent, he has. His ERA, while not impressive, doesn’t look like a complete disaster. His season has definitely been one, though. Soria has entered a game with the Royals either tied or in the lead 49 times, and has given up what would prove to be the losing run eight times. The point is that, while he’s not getting bombed every time out, when he does the team pays with crucial losses. Worse still, the nadir of his season appears to be striking now, when the team can least afford it.
Soria’s stats are completely awful this month. Three losses. A 9.00 ERA. A 2.33 WHIP. He’s getting worse as his outings are becoming more important. Which leads to the main point here, which is the question of why, exactly, he keeps being given so many important outings even as he continues to struggle?
Yoast’s Continued Reliance
Soria has a 1.57 average leverage index according to baseball reference, using the standard rate formula where 1.00 is exactly average. This means that he appears in 57 percent higher leverage situations than the average reliever. His 1.57 mark ranks him 19th in the AL, and of the 18 relievers above him, only two have a lower strike out rate than Soria. None have a higher ERA. Worst of all, all of them, except Nate Jones of the Chicago White Sox, are closers, whose leverage stats are somewhat inflated by the fact that they almost always pitch in the last inning of a game. This is the most baffling and exasperating part: while Soria may be getting unlucky, and while he was brilliant during the summer months, he keeps getting thrown into the fire. And he keeps getting scorched.
Moment of Truth
The breaking point came last week for many fans, when Soria appeared in three games with the Royals in front, and left the game with the team trailing every time. The Royals lost all three. For the fans that kept quiet last week, there was never an “I told you so” moment, only for the ones who had already lost faith. On Tuesday night, Ned Yost made what may have been the most unforgivable decision to use Soria yet.
With ace Danny Duffy on the mound, the Royals were perfectly set up to bounce back from a blowout in game one of a series against the weak Oakland A’s. This was a game and a series that they absolutely had to win to stay in the middle of the logjam that the AL Wild Card race has become. Duffy cruised through seven innings, but gave up a solo shot with one out in the eighth before giving way to Matt Strahm.
Strahm, a 21st-round pick by the Royals in 2012, has been fantastic out of the bullpen. He is a hard-throwing lefty out of a Kansas community college with starter’s aspirations, but the Royals have kept him in the bullpen this year as he works back from Tommy John surgery. Strahm came in, recorded the second out, then allowed a baserunner to put men at first and second with two outs. This brought up right-handed-hitting Jake Smolinski, and Yost brought in Soria.
This decision was curious for many reasons. First of all, Smolinski is not a stellar hitter (.254 in limited action this year, .250 career hitter) so going for the platoon advantage with him was not necessary. Second of all, in a limited sample size, Strahm has actually been better against right-handed hitters (he’s held them to three hits in 33 at-bats). Making the decision even more inexplicable, Yost had to know that Yonder Alonso, arguably the A’s best left-handed hitter at this point, was on the bench. Predictably, Alonso pinch hit, and after that it was just a formality. Alonso hit a rocket over Jarrod Dyson‘s head in center field, scoring both the tying and go-ahead runs.
Soria would allow an RBI single to Marcus Semien, the very next batter, essentially icing the game. Now, after getting blown out again on Wednesday night, the Royals are 74-71 and are in real danger of being swept by a last place team at home, essentially eliminating their playoff hopes. While there have been many struggles for the team this year, Yost’s continued refusal to remove Soria from high-leverage situations is definitely a part.
Yost echo’s himself after every blown game. He says Soria is working just as hard as ever. He says his stuff is no worse than it ever has been. He scoffs at the notion that Soria lacks the toughness to pitch in high-leverage situations, which does seem ridiculous given that Soria has been a star closer for his entire career. But the stats tell the story. Until Yost acknowledges the problem holding his team back, he won’t be able to solve it. Even if he does, it’s probably too little too late for 2016. Royals fans can only hope that something changes next year.
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