The Final Four. Shockingly as it is, the Orioles, Royals, Cardinals, and Giants remain. The last four winners of the NLCS have been either St. Louis or San Francisco and this year will be no different. Let’s take a deeper look at both teams and who really has the advantage. (All stats via MLB.com unless otherwise noted).
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals somehow ended up with the upper hand when it comes to starting against the Dodgers. Guys stepped up for the Redbirds and a few were also bailed out by Matt Carpenter (I’m looking at you Wainwright).
Game 1- Wainwright (STL) vs Bumgarner (SF): Wainwright simply was not Wainwright in his only start of the NLDS. Slated to be the Game Five starter against the Dodgers, he ended up with an extended rest. He struggled in the second half of the season and it carried over into the postseason. Bumgarner on the other hand split his two starts, but was effective in each posting a 1.13 ERA. Until Wainwright shows me his old self I have to ride the consistency. ADV- SF
Game 2- Lynn (STL) vs Peavy (SF): Lynn took the tough-luck loss against LA as Zack Greinke pitched out of his mind in Game Two. He provided the most stability in the St. Louis rotation after the All- Star Break and is one of the most underrated arms in the game. Peavy gained a little playoff experience last year with Boston, but the Cardinals have historically shelled him in the playoffs. ADV- STL
Game 3- Lackey (STL) vs Hudson (SF): A battle of veterans who both know how to pitch with the season on the line. Make no mistake, they may be racking up the years, but they still have the competitive fire. Lackey was masterful in Game Three of the NLDS and should have a slight edge in this very close call. ADV- STL
Game 4- Miller (STL) vs Vogelsong (SF): Miller held his own against Clayton Kershaw in Game Four and, more importantly, kept his team within reach. Matt Adams took care of the rest. Vogelsong was a thorn in the side of St. Louis two years ago in the NLCS. I expect him to continue his location consistency and take the Cards down. ADV- SF
Bottom Line: The Cardinals starting pitching outdueled the Dodgers. They have the momentum. They have the advantage. ADV- STL
Bullpen (Stats courtesy of rotogrinders.com)
This one is almost too close to call. Both teams have similar ERAs (SF-2.63 STL-2.70) and had very few home runs allowed in the regular season. San Francisco has a lot of interchangeable parts, while the Cardinals have a lot of role players. Trevor Rosenthal will be an X-Factor in this series for the Cardinals. He picked up all three saves in the NLDS, but made St. Louis fans sweat it a little bit.
Bottom Line: The dynamics of San Francisco give them a slight, SLIGHT edge. ADV- SF
Infield Defense
Catcher: I know Buster Posey is great, but Yadier Molina’s arm scares the plaques in Cooperstown. ADV- STL
First Base: Brandon Belt seems to have a little more range than Matt Adams. Adams provides the sure hands, but Belt has a little more sizzle. ADV- SF
Second Base: Kolten Wong seems to get better every game he starts on the defensive side. Joe Panik is a reliable option, but Wong has the speed and most importantly the arm for turning two. ADV- STL
Shortstop: This one is a little more lopsided. Jhonny Peralta is a sure-handed defender, but Brandon Crawford is an absolute magician with the glove. He may be the most underrated defender in the game. ADV- SF
Third Base: Matt Carpenter proved to me that he is a natural third baseman in the NLDS. His arm and range are far superior to his counterpart Pablo Sandoval. Be looking for Carp to come up slinging in this series. ADV- STL
Bottom Line: With Molina at the helm and healthy arms all around, the Cards pull away. ADV- STL
Outfield Defense
Left Field: If Matt Holliday gets to it, chances are he will come down with it. Travis Ishikawa has more reliable wheels and arm, so he will get the nod in this matchup. ADV- SF
Center Field: This is a solid matchup in the “last man standing” position. Jon Jay is a highly reliable center fielder who saves multiple runs in Game Three for the Cardinals. Gregor Blanco has improved vastly in his tenure, but Jay gets the edge. ADV- STL
Right Field: This matchup is a lot closer than most would think. Randal Grichuk continues to get the starts out in right and looks to be the future center fielder for the Cardinals. Hunter Pence covers a lot of ground, but lacks the arm of Grichuk. With the upset pick, Grichuk has the advantage. ADV- STL
Bottom Line: Jay and Grichuk are too much fun to watch, they pull away easily. ADV- STL
Batting Order
1. There is no one in the world who can stop Matt Carpenter right now. A few bombs and a Kershaw-ing later, he is the hottest player in baseball right now. Gregor Blanco provides the wheels that you would expect out of a leadoff hitter, but Carpenter is on a roll. ADV- STL
2. Two very similar hitters here in Jon Jay vs Joe Panik. Both hovered at the .300 mark throughout the regular season, but Jay has RBI running through his veins. ADV- STL
3. Buster Posey has won MVP awards for a reason. He is a very talented hitter and defenseman. .311 on the year is impressive enough coming out of the three spot. Matt Holliday has been red hot since July, but Posey has the edge. ADV- SF
4. The battle of hot and cold reaches its peak with this matchup. On one hand Matt Adams was the hero that sent the Cards to the NLCS, but only had two hits the entire series. Sandoval batted .279 in the regular season and carried signs of brilliance in the NLDS. ADV- SF
5. Jhonny Peralta struggled mightily versus the Dodgers and Hunter Pence has been a Cardinal killer in recent memory. Both had similar numbers during the regular season, but Pence loves October. ADV- SF
6. Molina sported a batting average that was forty points higher than Brandon Belt’s in the regular season. Molina has been clutch in the NLCS many times and I fully expect him to continue that trend this time around. ADV- STL
7. Randal Grichuk has pushed Oscar Taveras out of the picture for the time being and has made the most out of his time. He was the first to draw blood from Kershaw and the Giants don’t know what to expect from the new face. Brandon Crawford is clutch, no doubt there, but Grichuk has the hot bat. ADV- STL
8. Kolten Wong nearly started a rally in Game two against the Dodgers with his power. He stole 20 bases in the regular season despite a frequent amount of injuries. He seems to jump on the ball a little more than Travis Ishikawa. ADV- STL
Bottom Line: The Cardinals have an American League type lineup and are too deep to keep up with. AD- STL
Advantages and Vulnerability
St. Louis: They have a boatload of confidence coming into this series and why wouldn’t they? They took down the best pitcher in baseball, twice. If they can harness this momentum early in this series, it could spell disaster for the Giants. They are, however, quite vulnerable to this rotation. All of these pitchers, with the exception of Peavy, have figured out how to pitch to this lineup. They have also improved greatly since the last time these two faced in the NLCS.
San Francisco: They have the advantage in the pen. Ask the Dodgers, the bullpen needs to be on in order for them to hold onto leads. The Cardinals can find those weaknesses, but I see very few in the late inning guys. The team’s biggest vulnerability has to be the back end of the lineup. They have some clutch stars batting late, but can the START the rallies? If they can, they will make up the offensive ground.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals lineup continued to mash in late innings. A series that has turned regular in recent playoffs will once again provide some memorable finishes along the way. In a very close series, the Cardinals take it in 7.
