Saturday’s toppling of the four powerhouse Pac-12 teams (Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, and USC) left fans shocked and stunned. It seemed rare, almost inconceivable, for these teams to lose, a “once in a blue moon” event. What if, however, those losses were not an anomaly; rather, they were expected, a long time coming for a conference that has relied on luck and a soft schedule to overshadow its mediocrity? What if the real staggering question is not why these Pac-12 perennial powers suffered such head-scratching defeats, but why they were even considered perennial powers to begin with?
Is it possible that the Pac-12, often considered one of the most underrated and quickly ascending conferences, has finally become overrated?
Has the Pac-12 Become Overrated?
Just look at the UCLA game. Dominated from the point of attack, a casual observer would have thought UCLA was the underdog trying to cling on the game rather than a Top Ten team expected to blow out its opponent. Utah decimated the UCLA offensive line for ten sacks and gouged its defense for 242 yards on the ground. It took a 93-yard catch and run and a 40-yard pass, one of the only instances of the UCLA offensive line picking up the blitz, for the Bruins to even keep the game respectable. Disregarding the two big plays, UCLA quarterback and Heisman candidate Brett Hundley passed for only 136 yards. When Utah kicked the field goal to win the game, it had the feeling of order being restored, of the better team coming out on top, not of a scrappy underdog stealing a win.
UCLA had previously squeaked out narrow victories against unranked Virginia and Texas. Aside from their 62-27 win against Arizona State, they hadn’t really been impressive at all. Why were they ranked in the top-8 in the country?
Stanford has been defeated by USC and Notre Dame. Oregon had a huge week three victory against seventh-ranked Michigan State, but faltered on Thursday night against Arizona. The Trojans themselves lost to unranked Boston College and Arizona State. These three saw their programs reach a prime with their old coaches, all of whom have now moved on to the NFL.
The era of Jim Harbaugh, Chip Kelly, and Pete Carroll dominating the Pac-12 (the Pac-10 for some of their time) is over. Why, then, are their old teams still treated and ranked as if they were still there?
Stanford, carried by Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart, reached a high point under Jim Harbaugh. However, no Stanford player since–Stepfan Taylor is good but not elite–has even sniffed the Heisman race of which Gerhart and Luck were heavy contenders. David Shaw’s teams, despite regularly being in the conference title discussion, have suffered an “upset” every year, but is it really an upset if it continues to happen regularly?
Similarly, the 2013 Oregon team, in its first year without Chip Kelly, was an early BCS contender but ended up finishing ninth in the country. The Ducks, like Stanford, are usually in the thick of the Pac-12 race, but not quite at the level of their projections.
Perhaps it is because the teams used to be so good and were so often underrated that they have become overrated today. Perhaps the high expectations and accusations of “underachieving” are some sort of cosmic retribution for all the years that they overachieved amongst low expectations.
Whatever the case, the Pac-12 race is wide open. What was initially thought of as a three or four team team race has blossomed into a free-for-all. Cal, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State, all disregarded as afterthoughts in the Pac-12, are now serious contenders. What was thought to be a largely polarized conference with Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, and USC looking down upon the rest of the teams from a cliff, has now been seen to be relatively homogeneous. UCLA looked similar to Utah, and Arizona looked comparable to Oregon.
Who will run away with the conference? We shall see. Just don’t be stunned if it’s not one of the “powerhouses.”
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